Using SHAP values and machine learning to understand trends in the transient stability limit

Machine learning (ML) for transient stability assessment has gained traction due to the significant increase in computational requirements as renewables connect to power systems. To achieve a high degree of accuracy; black-box ML models are often required - inhibiting interpretation of predictions and consequently reducing confidence in the use of such methods. This paper proposes the use of SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) - a unifying interpretability framework based on Shapley values from cooperative game theory - to provide insights into ML models that are trained to predict critical clearing time (CCT). We use SHAP to obtain explanations of location-specific ML models trained to predict CCT at each busbar on the network. This can provide unique insights into power system variables influencing the entire stability boundary under increasing system complexity and uncertainty. Subsequently, the covariance between a variable of interest and the corresponding SHAP values from each location-specific ML model - can reveal how a change in that variable impacts the stability boundary throughout the network. Such insights can inform planning and/or operational decisions. The case study provided demonstrates the method using a highly accurate opaque ML algorithm in the IEEE 39-bus test network with Type IV wind generation

Prediction of frictional braking noise based on brake dynamometer test and artificial intelligent algorithms

Based on brake noise dynamometer test data, combined with the artificial intelligent algorithms, frictional braking noise is quantitatively analyzed and predicted in this study. To achieve this goal, a frictional braking noise prediction method is indicatively proposed, which consists of two main parts: first, based on the experimental data obtained from the brake noise dynamometer tests, and combining with the improved Long-Short-Term Memory (LSTM) algorithm, the coefficients of friction (COFs) are predicted under various braking test conditions. Then, based on the predicted braking COFs and other selected critical braking parameters, the quantitative prediction of frictional braking noise is obtained by means of the optimized eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm. Finally, the inherent features of the XGBoost algorithm are employed to qualitatively analyze the importance of the main factors affecting the frictional braking noise. The prediction algorithms of COFs and frictional braking noise are validated by the brake dynamomter test data, and the R2 (R square) scores of both the LSTM and XGBoost prediction algorithms are 0.9, which verifies the feasibility of both algorithms. The main contribution of this work is to predict the braking noise based on a large set of test data and combined with the LSTM and XGBoost artificial intelligent algorithms, which can significantly save time for the brake system development and braking performance testing, and has significance to the rapid prediction of braking frictional noise and fast NVH (noise, vibration, and harshness) optimal design of frictional braking systems

DEEP LEARNING BASED POWER SYSTEM STABILITY ASSESSMENT FOR REDUCED WECC SYSTEM

Power system stability is the ability of power system, for a giving initial operating condition, to reach a new operation condition with most of the system variables bounded in normal range after subjecting to a short or long disturbance. Traditional power system stability mainly uses time-domain simulation which is very time consuming and only appropriate for offline assessment. Nowadays, with increasing penetration of inverter based renewable, large-scale distributed energy storage integration and operation uncertainty brought by weather and electricity market, system dynamic and operating condition is more dramatic, and traditional power system stability assessment based on scheduling may not be able to cover all the real-time dispatch scenarios, also online assessment and self-awareness for modern power system becomes more and more important and urgent for power system dynamic security. With the development of fast computation resources and more available online dataset, machine learning techniques have been developed and applied to many areas recently and could potentially applied to power system application. In this dissertation, a deep learning-based power system stability assessment is proposed. Its accurate and fast assessment for power system dynamic security is useful in many places, including day-ahead scheduling, real-time operation, and long-term planning. The simplified Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) 240-bus system with renewable penetration up to 49.2% is used as the study system. The dataset generation, model training and error analysis are demonstrated, and the results show that the proposed deep learning-based method can accurately and fast predict the power system stability. Compared with traditional time simulation method, its near millisecond prediction makes the online assessment and self-awareness possible in future power system application

Microgrids

Microgrids are a growing segment of the energy industry, representing a paradigm shift from centralized structures toward more localized, autonomous, dynamic, and bi-directional energy networks, especially in cities and communities. The ability to isolate from the larger grid makes microgrids resilient, while their capability of forming scalable energy clusters permits the delivery of services that make the grid more sustainable and competitive. Through an optimal design and management process, microgrids could also provide efficient, low-cost, clean energy and help to improve the operation and stability of regional energy systems. This book covers these promising and dynamic areas of research and development and gathers contributions on different aspects of microgrids in an aim to impart higher degrees of sustainability and resilience to energy systems

Advanced Sensing, Fault Diagnostics, and Structural Health Management

Advanced sensing, fault diagnosis, and structural health management are important parts of the maintenance strategy of modern industries. With the advancement of science and technology, modern structural and mechanical systems are becoming more and more complex. Due to the continuous nature of operation and utilization, modern systems are heavily susceptible to faults. Hence, the operational reliability and safety of the systems can be greatly enhanced by using the multifaced strategy of designing novel sensing technologies and advanced intelligent algorithms and constructing modern data acquisition systems and structural health monitoring techniques. As a result, this research domain has been receiving a significant amount of attention from researchers in recent years. Furthermore, the research findings have been successfully applied in a wide range of fields such as aerospace, manufacturing, transportation and processes

Customer Churn Prediction of Telecom Company Using Machine Learning Algorithms

We can’t escape the fact that using telecommunications has become a significant part of our everyday lives. Since the Covid-19 pandemic, the telecommunication industry has become crucial.  Hence, the industry now enjoys growth opportunities. In this study, KNN, Random Forest (RF), AdaBoost, Logistic Regression (LR), XGBoost, and Support Vector Machine (SVM) are 6 supervised machine learning algorithms that will be used in this study to predict the customer churn of a telecom company in California. The goal of this study is to identify the classifier that predicts customer churn the most effectively. As evidenced by its accuracy of 79.67%, precision of 64.67%, recall of 51.87%, and F1-score of 57.57%, XGBoost is the overall most effective classifier in this study. Next, the purpose of this study is to identify the characteristics of customers who are most likely to leave the telecom company. These characteristics were discovered based on customers’ demographics and account information. Lastly, this study also provides the company with advice on how to retain customers. The study advises company to personalize the customer experience, implement a customer loyalty program, and apply AI in customer relationship management in retaining customers

Who needs XAI in the Energy Sector? A Framework to Upgrade Black Box Explainability

Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based methods in the energy sector challenge companies, organizations, and societies. Organizational issues include traceability, certifiability, explainability, responsibility, and efficiency. Societal challenges include ethical norms, bias, discrimination, privacy, and information security. Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) can address these issues in various application areas of the energy sector, e.g., power generation forecasting, load management, and network security operations. We derive Key Topics (KTs) and Design Requirements (DRs) and develop Design Principles (DPs) for efficient XAI applications through Design Science Research (DSR). We analyze 179 scientific articles to identify our 8 KTs for XAI implementation through text mining and topic modeling. Based on the KTs, we derive 15 DRs and develop 18 DPs. After that, we discuss and evaluate our results and findings through expert surveys. We develop a Three-Forces Model as a framework for implementing efficient XAI solutions. We provide recommendations and a further research agenda

The blessings of explainable AI in operations & maintenance of wind turbines

Wind turbines play an integral role in generating clean energy, but regularly suffer from operational inconsistencies and failures leading to unexpected downtimes and significant Operations & Maintenance (O&M) costs. Condition-Based Monitoring (CBM) has been utilised in the past to monitor operational inconsistencies in turbines by applying signal processing techniques to vibration data. The last decade has witnessed growing interest in leveraging Supervisory Control & Acquisition (SCADA) data from turbine sensors towards CBM. Machine Learning (ML) techniques have been utilised to predict incipient faults in turbines and forecast vital operational parameters with high accuracy by leveraging SCADA data and alarm logs. More recently, Deep Learning (DL) methods have outperformed conventional ML techniques, particularly for anomaly prediction. Despite demonstrating immense promise in transitioning to Artificial Intelligence (AI), such models are generally black-boxes that cannot provide rationales behind their predictions, hampering the ability of turbine operators to rely on automated decision making. We aim to help combat this challenge by providing a novel perspective on Explainable AI (XAI) for trustworthy decision support.This thesis revolves around three key strands of XAI – DL, Natural Language Generation (NLG) and Knowledge Graphs (KGs), which are investigated by utilising data from an operational turbine. We leverage DL and NLG to predict incipient faults and alarm events in the turbine in natural language as well as generate human-intelligible O&M strategies to assist engineers in fixing/averting the faults. We also propose specialised DL models which can predict causal relationships in SCADA features as well as quantify the importance of vital parameters leading to failures. The thesis finally culminates with an interactive Question- Answering (QA) system for automated reasoning that leverages multimodal domain-specific information from a KG, facilitating engineers to retrieve O&M strategies with natural language questions. By helping make turbines more reliable, we envisage wider adoption of wind energy sources towards tackling climate change

Machine learning for the sustainable energy transition: a data-driven perspective along the value chain from manufacturing to energy conversion

According to the special report Global Warming of 1.5 °C of the IPCC, climate action is not only necessary but more than ever urgent. The world is witnessing rising sea levels, heat waves, events of flooding, droughts, and desertification resulting in the loss of lives and damage to livelihoods, especially in countries of the Global South. To mitigate climate change and commit to the Paris agreement, it is of the uttermost importance to reduce greenhouse gas emissions coming from the most emitting sector, namely the energy sector. To this end, large-scale penetration of renewable energy systems into the energy market is crucial for the energy transition toward a sustainable future by replacing fossil fuels and improving access to energy with socio-economic benefits. With the advent of Industry 4.0, Internet of Things technologies have been increasingly applied to the energy sector introducing the concept of smart grid or, more in general, Internet of Energy. These paradigms are steering the energy sector towards more efficient, reliable, flexible, resilient, safe, and sustainable solutions with huge environmental and social potential benefits. To realize these concepts, new information technologies are required, and among the most promising possibilities are Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning which in many countries have already revolutionized the energy industry. This thesis presents different Machine Learning algorithms and methods for the implementation of new strategies to make renewable energy systems more efficient and reliable. It presents various learning algorithms, highlighting their advantages and limits, and evaluating their application for different tasks in the energy context. In addition, different techniques are presented for the preprocessing and cleaning of time series, nowadays collected by sensor networks mounted on every renewable energy system. With the possibility to install large numbers of sensors that collect vast amounts of time series, it is vital to detect and remove irrelevant, redundant, or noisy features, and alleviate the curse of dimensionality, thus improving the interpretability of predictive models, speeding up their learning process, and enhancing their generalization properties. Therefore, this thesis discussed the importance of dimensionality reduction in sensor networks mounted on renewable energy systems and, to this end, presents two novel unsupervised algorithms. The first approach maps time series in the network domain through visibility graphs and uses a community detection algorithm to identify clusters of similar time series and select representative parameters. This method can group both homogeneous and heterogeneous physical parameters, even when related to different functional areas of a system. The second approach proposes the Combined Predictive Power Score, a method for feature selection with a multivariate formulation that explores multiple sub-sets of expanding variables and identifies the combination of features with the highest predictive power over specified target variables. This method proposes a selection algorithm for the optimal combination of variables that converges to the smallest set of predictors with the highest predictive power. Once the combination of variables is identified, the most relevant parameters in a sensor network can be selected to perform dimensionality reduction. Data-driven methods open the possibility to support strategic decision-making, resulting in a reduction of Operation & Maintenance costs, machine faults, repair stops, and spare parts inventory size. Therefore, this thesis presents two approaches in the context of predictive maintenance to improve the lifetime and efficiency of the equipment, based on anomaly detection algorithms. The first approach proposes an anomaly detection model based on Principal Component Analysis that is robust to false alarms, can isolate anomalous conditions, and can anticipate equipment failures. The second approach has at its core a neural architecture, namely a Graph Convolutional Autoencoder, which models the sensor network as a dynamical functional graph by simultaneously considering the information content of individual sensor measurements (graph node features) and the nonlinear correlations existing between all pairs of sensors (graph edges). The proposed neural architecture can capture hidden anomalies even when the turbine continues to deliver the power requested by the grid and can anticipate equipment failures. Since the model is unsupervised and completely data-driven, this approach can be applied to any wind turbine equipped with a SCADA system. When it comes to renewable energies, the unschedulable uncertainty due to their intermittent nature represents an obstacle to the reliability and stability of energy grids, especially when dealing with large-scale integration. Nevertheless, these challenges can be alleviated if the natural sources or the power output of renewable energy systems can be forecasted accurately, allowing power system operators to plan optimal power management strategies to balance the dispatch between intermittent power generations and the load demand. To this end, this thesis proposes a multi-modal spatio-temporal neural network for multi-horizon wind power forecasting. In particular, the model combines high-resolution Numerical Weather Prediction forecast maps with turbine-level SCADA data and explores how meteorological variables on different spatial scales together with the turbines' internal operating conditions impact wind power forecasts. The world is undergoing a third energy transition with the main goal to tackle global climate change through decarbonization of the energy supply and consumption patterns. This is not only possible thanks to global cooperation and agreements between parties, power generation systems advancements, and Internet of Things and Artificial Intelligence technologies but also necessary to prevent the severe and irreversible consequences of climate change that are threatening life on the planet as we know it. This thesis is intended as a reference for researchers that want to contribute to the sustainable energy transition and are approaching the field of Artificial Intelligence in the context of renewable energy systems