Worst-case Optimal Submodular Extensions for Marginal Estimation

Submodular extensions of an energy function can be used to efficiently compute approximate marginals via variational inference. The accuracy of the marginals depends crucially on the quality of the submodular extension. To identify the best possible extension, we show an equivalence between the submodular extensions of the energy and the objective functions of linear programming (LP) relaxations for the corresponding MAP estimation problem. This allows us to (i) establish the worst-case optimality of the submodular extension for Potts model used in the literature; (ii) identify the worst-case optimal submodular extension for the more general class of metric labeling; and (iii) efficiently compute the marginals for the widely used dense CRF model with the help of a recently proposed Gaussian filtering method. Using synthetic and real data, we show that our approach provides comparable upper bounds on the log-partition function to those obtained using tree-reweighted message passing (TRW) in cases where the latter is computationally feasible. Importantly, unlike TRW, our approach provides the first practical algorithm to compute an upper bound on the dense CRF model.Comment: Accepted to AISTATS 201

Sample Complexity Bounds for Influence Maximization

Influence maximization (IM) is the problem of finding for a given s ? 1 a set S of |S|=s nodes in a network with maximum influence. With stochastic diffusion models, the influence of a set S of seed nodes is defined as the expectation of its reachability over simulations, where each simulation specifies a deterministic reachability function. Two well-studied special cases are the Independent Cascade (IC) and the Linear Threshold (LT) models of Kempe, Kleinberg, and Tardos [Kempe et al., 2003]. The influence function in stochastic diffusion is unbiasedly estimated by averaging reachability values over i.i.d. simulations. We study the IM sample complexity: the number of simulations needed to determine a (1-?)-approximate maximizer with confidence 1-?. Our main result is a surprising upper bound of O(s ? ?^{-2} ln (n/?)) for a broad class of models that includes IC and LT models and their mixtures, where n is the number of nodes and ? is the number of diffusion steps. Generally ? ? n, so this significantly improves over the generic upper bound of O(s n ?^{-2} ln (n/?)). Our sample complexity bounds are derived from novel upper bounds on the variance of the reachability that allow for small relative error for influential sets and additive error when influence is small. Moreover, we provide a data-adaptive method that can detect and utilize fewer simulations on models where it suffices. Finally, we provide an efficient greedy design that computes an (1-1/e-?)-approximate maximizer from simulations and applies to any submodular stochastic diffusion model that satisfies the variance bounds

Near-Optimal Sensor Scheduling for Batch State Estimation: Complexity, Algorithms, and Limits

In this paper, we focus on batch state estimation for linear systems. This problem is important in applications such as environmental field estimation, robotic navigation, and target tracking. Its difficulty lies on that limited operational resources among the sensors, e.g., shared communication bandwidth or battery power, constrain the number of sensors that can be active at each measurement step. As a result, sensor scheduling algorithms must be employed. Notwithstanding, current sensor scheduling algorithms for batch state estimation scale poorly with the system size and the time horizon. In addition, current sensor scheduling algorithms for Kalman filtering, although they scale better, provide no performance guarantees or approximation bounds for the minimization of the batch state estimation error. In this paper, one of our main contributions is to provide an algorithm that enjoys both the estimation accuracy of the batch state scheduling algorithms and the low time complexity of the Kalman filtering scheduling algorithms. In particular: 1) our algorithm is near-optimal: it achieves a solution up to a multiplicative factor 1/2 from the optimal solution, and this factor is close to the best approximation factor 1/e one can achieve in polynomial time for this problem; 2) our algorithm has (polynomial) time complexity that is not only lower than that of the current algorithms for batch state estimation; it is also lower than, or similar to, that of the current algorithms for Kalman filtering. We achieve these results by proving two properties for our batch state estimation error metric, which quantifies the square error of the minimum variance linear estimator of the batch state vector: a) it is supermodular in the choice of the sensors; b) it has a sparsity pattern (it involves matrices that are block tri-diagonal) that facilitates its evaluation at each sensor set.Comment: Correction of typos in proof

Greedy Maximization Framework for Graph-based Influence Functions

The study of graph-based submodular maximization problems was initiated in a seminal work of Kempe, Kleinberg, and Tardos (2003): An {\em influence} function of subsets of nodes is defined by the graph structure and the aim is to find subsets of seed nodes with (approximately) optimal tradeoff of size and influence. Applications include viral marketing, monitoring, and active learning of node labels. This powerful formulation was studied for (generalized) {\em coverage} functions, where the influence of a seed set on a node is the maximum utility of a seed item to the node, and for pairwise {\em utility} based on reachability, distances, or reverse ranks. We define a rich class of influence functions which unifies and extends previous work beyond coverage functions and specific utility functions. We present a meta-algorithm for approximate greedy maximization with strong approximation quality guarantees and worst-case near-linear computation for all functions in our class. Our meta-algorithm generalizes a recent design by Cohen et al (2014) that was specific for distance-based coverage functions.Comment: 8 pages, 1 figur

Show Me the Money: Dynamic Recommendations for Revenue Maximization

Recommender Systems (RS) play a vital role in applications such as e-commerce and on-demand content streaming. Research on RS has mainly focused on the customer perspective, i.e., accurate prediction of user preferences and maximization of user utilities. As a result, most existing techniques are not explicitly built for revenue maximization, the primary business goal of enterprises. In this work, we explore and exploit a novel connection between RS and the profitability of a business. As recommendations can be seen as an information channel between a business and its customers, it is interesting and important to investigate how to make strategic dynamic recommendations leading to maximum possible revenue. To this end, we propose a novel \model that takes into account a variety of factors including prices, valuations, saturation effects, and competition amongst products. Under this model, we study the problem of finding revenue-maximizing recommendation strategies over a finite time horizon. We show that this problem is NP-hard, but approximation guarantees can be obtained for a slightly relaxed version, by establishing an elegant connection to matroid theory. Given the prohibitively high complexity of the approximation algorithm, we also design intelligent heuristics for the original problem. Finally, we conduct extensive experiments on two real and synthetic datasets and demonstrate the efficiency, scalability, and effectiveness our algorithms, and that they significantly outperform several intuitive baselines.Comment: Conference version published in PVLDB 7(14). To be presented in the VLDB Conference 2015, in Hawaii. This version gives a detailed submodularity proo