Impact Assessment of Hypothesized Cyberattacks on Interconnected Bulk Power Systems

The first-ever Ukraine cyberattack on power grid has proven its devastation by hacking into their critical cyber assets. With administrative privileges accessing substation networks/local control centers, one intelligent way of coordinated cyberattacks is to execute a series of disruptive switching executions on multiple substations using compromised supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems. These actions can cause significant impacts to an interconnected power grid. Unlike the previous power blackouts, such high-impact initiating events can aggravate operating conditions, initiating instability that may lead to system-wide cascading failure. A systemic evaluation of "nightmare" scenarios is highly desirable for asset owners to manage and prioritize the maintenance and investment in protecting their cyberinfrastructure. This survey paper is a conceptual expansion of real-time monitoring, anomaly detection, impact analyses, and mitigation (RAIM) framework that emphasizes on the resulting impacts, both on steady-state and dynamic aspects of power system stability. Hypothetically, we associate the combinatorial analyses of steady state on substations/components outages and dynamics of the sequential switching orders as part of the permutation. The expanded framework includes (1) critical/noncritical combination verification, (2) cascade confirmation, and (3) combination re-evaluation. This paper ends with a discussion of the open issues for metrics and future design pertaining the impact quantification of cyber-related contingencies

Generally Accepted Reliability Principle with Uncertainty Modelling and Through Probabilistic Risk Assessment : Functional Analysis of System Development Process

This report gives a functional analysis of the current system development process among European TSOs. System development deals with taking decisions that change transmission capacities either within a TSO’s own system or towards other TSOs systems. Inputs to this report have been gathered from workshops in the GARPUR project and a questionnaire to 10 TSOs that are either part of GARPUR consortium or a member of GARPUR reference group. Despite the limited number of respondents to the questionnaire, the responses are quite representative for European practice since the respondents represent different system sizes, characteristics and control zones within Europe

An Assessment of PIER Electric Grid Research 2003-2014 White Paper

This white paper describes the circumstances in California around the turn of the 21st century that led the California Energy Commission (CEC) to direct additional Public Interest Energy Research funds to address critical electric grid issues, especially those arising from integrating high penetrations of variable renewable generation with the electric grid. It contains an assessment of the beneficial science and technology advances of the resultant portfolio of electric grid research projects administered under the direction of the CEC by a competitively selected contractor, the University of California’s California Institute for Energy and the Environment, from 2003-2014

Portuguese transmission grid incidents risk assessment

Documento confidencial. Não pode ser disponibilizado para consultaTese de doutoramento. Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores. Faculdade de Engenharia. Universidade do Porto. 201

POWER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM RELIABILITY AND RESILIENCY AGAINST EXTREME EVENTS

The objective of a power system is to provide electricity to its customers as economically as possible with an acceptable level of reliability while safeguarding the environment. Power system reliability has well-established quantitative metrics, regulatory standards, compliance incentives and jurisdictions of responsibilities. The increase in occurrence of extreme events like hurricane/tornadoes, floods, wildfires, storms, cyber-attacks etc. which are not considered in routine reliability evaluation has raised concern over the potential economic losses due to prolonged and large-scale power outages, and the overall sustainability and adaptability of power systems. This concern has motivated the utility planners, operators, and policy makers to acknowledge the importance of system resiliency against such events. However, power system resiliency evaluation is comparatively new, and lacks widely accepted standards, assessment methods and metrics. The thesis presents comparative review and analysis of power system resilience models, methodologies, and metrics in present literature and utility applications. It presents studies on two very different types of extreme events, (i) man-made and (ii) natural disaster, and analyzes their impacts on the resiliency of a distribution system. It draws conclusions on assessing and improving power system resiliency based on the impact of the extreme event, response from the distribution system, and effectiveness of the mitigating measures to tackle the extreme event. The advancement in technologies has seen an increasing integration of cyber and physical layer of the distribution system. The distribution system operators avails from the symbiotic relation of the cyber-physical layer, but the interdependency has also been its Achilles heel. The evolving infrastructure is being exposed to increase in cyber-attacks. It is of paramount importance to address the aforementioned issue by developing holistic approaches to comprehensibly upgrade the distribution system preventing huge financial loss and societal repercussions. The thesis models a type of cyber-attack using false data injection and evaluates its impact on the distribution system. It does so by developing a resilience assessment methodology accompanied by quantitative metrics. It also performs reliability evaluation to present the underlying principle and differences between reliability and resiliency. The thesis also introduces new indices to demonstrate the effectiveness of a bad-data detection strategy against such cyber-attacks. Extreme events like hurricane/tornadoes, floods, wildfires, storm, cyber-attack etc. are responsible for catastrophic damage to critical infrastructure and huge financial loss. Power distribution system is an important critical infrastructure driving the socio-economic growth of the country. High winds are one of the most common form of extreme events that are responsible for outages due to failure of poles, equipment damage etc. The thesis models effective extreme wind events with the help of fragility curves, and presents an analysis of their impacts on the distribution system. It also presents infrastructural and operational resiliency enhancement strategies and quantifies the effectiveness of the strategy with the metrics developed. It also demonstrates the dependency of resiliency of distribution system on the structural strength of transmission lines and presents measures to ensure the independency of the distribution system. The thesis presents effective resilience assessment methodology that can be valuable for distribution system utility planners, and operators to plan and ensure a resilient distribution system

Cyber-Based Contingency Analysis and Insurance Implications of Power Grid

Cybersecurity for power communication infrastructure is a serious subject that has been discussed for a decade since the first North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) critical infrastructure protection (CIP) initiative in 2006. Its credibility on plausibility has been evidenced by attack events in the recent past. Although this is a very high impact, rare probability event, the establishment of quantitative measures would help asset owners in making a series of investment decisions. First, this dissertation tackles attackers\u27 strategies based on the current communication architecture between remote IP-based (unmanned) power substations and energy control centers. Hypothetically, the identification of intrusion paths will lead to the worst-case scenarios that the attackers could do harm to the grid, e.g., how this switching attack may perturb to future cascading outages within a control area when an IP-based substation is compromised. Systematic approaches are proposed in this dissertation on how to systematically determine pivotal substations and how investment can be prioritized to maintain and appropriate a reasonable investment in protecting their existing cyberinfrastructure. More specifically, the second essay of this dissertation focuses on digital protecting relaying, which could have similar detrimental effects on the overall grid\u27s stability. The R-k contingency analyses are proposed to verify with steady-state and dynamic simulations to ensure consistencies of simulation outcome in the proposed modeling in a power system. This is under the assumption that attackers are able to enumerate all electronic devices and computers within a compromised substation network. The essay also assists stakeholders (the defenders) in planning out exhaustively to identify the critical digital relays to be deployed in substations. The systematic methods are the combinatorial evaluation to incorporate the simulated statistics in the proposed metrics that are used based on the physics and simulation studies using existing power system tools. Finally, a risk transfer mechanism of cyber insurance against disruptive switching attacks is studied comprehensively based on the aforementioned two attackers\u27 tactics. The evaluation hypothetically assesses the occurrence of anomalies and how these footprints of attackers can lead to a potential cascading blackout as well as to restore the power back to normal stage. The research proposes a framework of cyber insurance premium calculation based on the ruin probability theory, by modeling potential electronic intrusion and its direct impacts. This preliminary actuarial model can further improve the security of the protective parameters of the critical infrastructure via incentivizing investment in security technologies