Experimental Design for Sensitivity Analysis, Optimization and Validation of Simulation Models

This chapter gives a survey on the use of statistical designs for what-if analysis in simula- tion, including sensitivity analysis, optimization, and validation/verification. Sensitivity analysis is divided into two phases. The first phase is a pilot stage, which consists of screening or searching for the important factors among (say) hundreds of potentially important factors. A novel screening technique is presented, namely sequential bifurcation. The second phase uses regression analysis to approximate the input/output transformation that is implied by the simulation model; the resulting regression model is also known as a metamodel or a response surface. Regression analysis gives better results when the simu- lation experiment is well designed, using either classical statistical designs (such as frac- tional factorials) or optimal designs (such as pioneered by Fedorov, Kiefer, and Wolfo- witz). To optimize the simulated system, the analysts may apply Response Surface Metho- dology (RSM); RSM combines regression analysis, statistical designs, and steepest-ascent hill-climbing. To validate a simulation model, again regression analysis and statistical designs may be applied. Several numerical examples and case-studies illustrate how statisti- cal techniques can reduce the ad hoc character of simulation; that is, these statistical techniques can make simulation studies give more general results, in less time. Appendix 1 summarizes confidence intervals for expected values, proportions, and quantiles, in termi- nating and steady-state simulations. Appendix 2 gives details on four variance reduction techniques, namely common pseudorandom numbers, antithetic numbers, control variates or regression sampling, and importance sampling. Appendix 3 describes jackknifing, which may give robust confidence intervals.least squares;distribution-free;non-parametric;stopping rule;run-length;Von Neumann;median;seed;likelihood ratio

Distribution of Random Streams for Simulation Practitioners

International audienceThere is an increasing interest in the distribution of parallel random number streamsin the high-performance computing community particularly, with the manycore shift. Even ifwe have at our disposal statistically sound random number generators according to the latestand thorough testing libraries, their parallelization can still be a delicate problem. Indeed, aset of recent publications shows it still has to be mastered by the scientific community. Withthe arrival of multi-core and manycore processor architectures on the scientist desktop, modelerswho are non-specialists in parallelizing stochastic simulations need help and advice in distributingrigorously their experimental plans and replications according to the state of the art in pseudo-random numbers parallelization techniques. In this paper, we discuss the different partitioningtechniques currently in use to provide independent streams with their corresponding software. Inaddition to the classical approaches in use to parallelize stochastic simulations on regular processors,this paper also presents recent advances in pseudo-random number generation for general-purposegraphical processing units. The state of the art given in this paper is written for simulationpractitioners

Optimal treatment allocations in space and time for on-line control of an emerging infectious disease

A key component in controlling the spread of an epidemic is deciding where, whenand to whom to apply an intervention.We develop a framework for using data to informthese decisionsin realtime.We formalize a treatment allocation strategy as a sequence of functions, oneper treatment period, that map up-to-date information on the spread of an infectious diseaseto a subset of locations where treatment should be allocated. An optimal allocation strategyoptimizes some cumulative outcome, e.g. the number of uninfected locations, the geographicfootprint of the disease or the cost of the epidemic. Estimation of an optimal allocation strategyfor an emerging infectious disease is challenging because spatial proximity induces interferencebetween locations, the number of possible allocations is exponential in the number oflocations, and because disease dynamics and intervention effectiveness are unknown at outbreak.We derive a Bayesian on-line estimator of the optimal allocation strategy that combinessimulation–optimization with Thompson sampling.The estimator proposed performs favourablyin simulation experiments. This work is motivated by and illustrated using data on the spread ofwhite nose syndrome, which is a highly fatal infectious disease devastating bat populations inNorth America

Warp-Level Parallelism: Enabling Multiple Replications In Parallel on GPU

Best paper awardInternational audienceStochastic simulations need multiple replications in order to build confidence intervals for their results. Even if we do not need a large amount of replications, it is a good practice to speed-up the whole simulation time using the Multiple Replications In Parallel (MRIP) approach. This approach usually supposes to have access to a parallel computer such as a symmetric mul-tiprocessing machine (with many cores), a computing cluster or a computing grid. In this paper, we propose Warp-Level Parallelism (WLP), a GP-GPU-enabled solution to compute MRIP on GP-GPUs (General-Purpose Graphics Processing Units). These devices display a great amount of parallel computational power at low cost, but are tuned to process efficiently the same operation on several data, through different threads. Indeed, this paradigm is called Single Instruction, Multiple Threads (SIMT). Our approach proposes to rely on small threads groups, called warps, to perform independent computations such as replications. We have benchmarked WLP with three different models: it allows MRIP to be computed up to six times faster than with the SIMT computing paradigm

Automatic Algorithm Selection for Complex Simulation Problems

To select the most suitable simulation algorithm for a given task is often difficult. This is due to intricate interactions between model features, implementation details, and runtime environment, which may strongly affect the overall performance. The thesis consists of three parts. The first part surveys existing approaches to solve the algorithm selection problem and discusses techniques to analyze simulation algorithm performance.The second part introduces a software framework for automatic simulation algorithm selection, which is evaluated in the third part.Die Auswahl des passendsten Simulationsalgorithmus für eine bestimmte Aufgabe ist oftmals schwierig. Dies liegt an der komplexen Interaktion zwischen Modelleigenschaften, Implementierungsdetails und Laufzeitumgebung. Die Arbeit ist in drei Teile gegliedert. Der erste Teil befasst sich eingehend mit Vorarbeiten zur automatischen Algorithmenauswahl, sowie mit der Leistungsanalyse von Simulationsalgorithmen. Der zweite Teil der Arbeit stellt ein Rahmenwerk zur automatischen Auswahl von Simulationsalgorithmen vor, welches dann im dritten Teil evaluiert wird

Analysis of simulation environment

In this paper the requirements for an ALN simulation environment are analysed, as needed in the CATNETS Project. A number of grid and general purpose simulators are evaluated regarding the identified requirements for simulating economical resource allocation mechanisms in ALNs. Subsequently a suitable simulator is chosen for usage in the CATNETS project. --CATNETS simulator,requirements analysis,simulator selection