Predicting the energy output of wind farms based on weather data: important variables and their correlation

Pre-print available at: http://arxiv.org/abs/1109.1922Wind energy plays an increasing role in the supply of energy world wide. The energy output of a wind farm is highly dependent on the weather conditions present at its site. If the output can be predicted more accurately, energy suppliers can coordinate the collaborative production of different energy sources more efficiently to avoid costly overproduction. In this paper, we take a computer science perspective on energy prediction based on weather data and analyze the important parameters as well as their correlation on the energy output. To deal with the interaction of the different parameters, we use symbolic regression based on the genetic programming tool DataModeler. Our studies are carried out on publicly available weather and energy data for a wind farm in Australia. We report on the correlation of the different variables for the energy output. The model obtained for energy prediction gives a very reliable prediction of the energy output for newly supplied weather data. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.Ekaterina Vladislavleva, Tobias Friedrich, Frank Neumann, Markus Wagne

Characterisation of large changes in wind power for the day-ahead market using a fuzzy logic approach

Wind power has become one of the renewable resources with a major growth in the electricity market. However, due to its inherent variability, forecasting techniques are necessary for the optimum scheduling of the electric grid, specially during ramp events. These large changes in wind power may not be captured by wind power point forecasts even with very high resolution Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. In this paper, a fuzzy approach for wind power ramp characterisation is presented. The main benefit of this technique is that it avoids the binary definition of ramp event, allowing to identify changes in power out- put that can potentially turn into ramp events when the total percentage of change to be considered a ramp event is not met. To study the application of this technique, wind power forecasts were obtained and their corresponding error estimated using Genetic Programming (GP) and Quantile Regression Forests. The error distributions were incorporated into the characterisation process, which according to the results, improve significantly the ramp capture. Results are presented using colour maps, which provide a useful way to interpret the characteristics of the ramp events

An Evolutionary Computational Approach for the Problem of Unit Commitment and Economic Dispatch in Microgrids under Several Operation Modes

In the last decades, new types of generation technologies have emerged and have been gradually integrated into the existing power systems, moving their classical architectures to distributed systems. Despite the positive features associated to this paradigm, new problems arise such as coordination and uncertainty. In this framework, microgrids constitute an effective solution to deal with the coordination and operation of these distributed energy resources. This paper proposes a Genetic Algorithm (GA) to address the combined problem of Unit Commitment (UC) and Economic Dispatch (ED). With this end, a model of a microgrid is introduced together with all the control variables and physical constraints. To optimally operate the microgrid, three operation modes are introduced. The first two attend to optimize economical and environmental factors, while the last operation mode considers the errors induced by the uncertainties in the demand forecasting. Therefore, it achieves a robust design that guarantees the power supply for different confidence levels. Finally, the algorithm was applied to an example scenario to illustrate its performance. The achieved simulation results demonstrate the validity of the proposed approach.Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades TEC2016-80242-PMinisterio de Economía y Competitividad PCIN-2015-043Universidad de Sevilla Programa propio de I+D+

Load Forecasting Based Distribution System Network Reconfiguration-A Distributed Data-Driven Approach

In this paper, a short-term load forecasting approach based network reconfiguration is proposed in a parallel manner. Specifically, a support vector regression (SVR) based short-term load forecasting approach is designed to provide an accurate load prediction and benefit the network reconfiguration. Because of the nonconvexity of the three-phase balanced optimal power flow, a second-order cone program (SOCP) based approach is used to relax the optimal power flow problem. Then, the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) is used to compute the optimal power flow in distributed manner. Considering the limited number of the switches and the increasing computation capability, the proposed network reconfiguration is solved in a parallel way. The numerical results demonstrate the feasible and effectiveness of the proposed approach.Comment: 5 pages, preprint for Asilomar Conference on Signals, Systems, and Computers 201

Forecasting The Ocean Wave Heights Using Linear Genetic Programming

Source: ICHE Conference Archive - https://mdi-de.baw.de/icheArchiv

Short-term Self-Scheduling of Virtual Energy Hub Plant within Thermal Energy Market

Multicarrier energy systems create new challenges as well as opportunities in future energy systems. One of these challenges is the interaction among multiple energy systems and energy hubs in different energy markets. By the advent of the local thermal energy market in many countries, energy hubs' scheduling becomes more prominent. In this article, a new approach to energy hubs' scheduling is offered, called virtual energy hub (VEH). The proposed concept of the energy hub, which is named as the VEH in this article, is referred to as an architecture based on the energy hub concept beside the proposed self-scheduling approach. The VEH is operated based on the different energy carriers and facilities as well as maximizes its revenue by participating in the various local energy markets. The proposed VEH optimizes its revenue from participating in the electrical and thermal energy markets and by examining both local markets. Participation of a player in the energy markets by using the integrated point of view can be reached to a higher benefit and optimal operation of the facilities in comparison with independent energy systems. In a competitive energy market, a VEH optimizes its self-scheduling problem in order to maximize its benefit considering uncertainties related to renewable resources. To handle the problem under uncertainty, a nonprobabilistic information gap method is implemented in this study. The proposed model enables the VEH to pursue two different strategies concerning uncertainties, namely risk-averse strategy and risk-seeker strategy. For effective participation of the renewable-based VEH plant in the local energy market, a compressed air energy storage unit is used as a solution for the volatility of the wind power generation. Finally, the proposed model is applied to a test case, and the numerical results validate the proposed approach