Rule Based Forecasting [RBF] - Improving Efficacy of Judgmental Forecasts Using Simplified Expert Rules

Rule-based Forecasting (RBF) has emerged to be an effective forecasting model compared to well-accepted benchmarks. However, the original RBF model, introduced in1992, incorporates 99 production rules and is, therefore, difficult to apply judgmentally. In this research study, we present a core rule-set from RBF that can be used to inform both judgmental forecasting practice and pedagogy. The simplified rule-set, called coreRBF, is validated by asking forecasters to judgmentally apply the rules to time series forecasting tasks. Results demonstrate that forecasting accuracy from judgmental use of coreRBF is not statistically different from that reported from similar applications of RBF. Further, we benchmarked these coreRBF forecasts against forecasts from (a) untrained forecasters, (b) an expert system based on RBF, and (c) the original 1992 RBF study. Forecast accuracies were in the hypothesized direction, arguing for the generalizability and validity of the coreRBF rules

Cost efficiency under negotiated performance‐based contracts and benchmarking – Are there gains through competitive tendering in the absence of an incumbent public monopolist?

This paper uses data obtained from numerous sources in Australia to assess the extent to which negotiated performance-based contracts with actionable benchmarking can achieve as good as, or better, improvement in cost efficiency compared to competitive tendering when incumbents are not public operators. Stakeholders who promote the position that Government should choose to test the market for value for money through tendering, especially where incumbent operators demonstrate benchmarked cost efficiency, given the primary responsibility to the taxpayer, appear on the evidence in this paper to be inappropriately claiming noticeable benefits to society

Integrated pest management portfolios in UK arable farming: results of a farmer survey.

Farmers are faced with a wide range of pest management (PM) options that can be adopted in isolation or alongside complementary or substitute strategies. This paper presents the results of a survey of UK cereal producers, focusing on the character and diversity of PM strategies currently used by, or available to, farmers. In addition, the survey asked various questions pertaining to agricultural policy participation, attitude towards environmental issues, sources of PM advice and information and the important characteristics of PM technologies. The results indicate that many farmers do make use of a suite of PM techniques, and that their choice of integrated PM (IPM) portfolio appears to be jointly dictated by farm characteristics and government policy. Results also indicate that portfolio choice does affect the number of subsequent insecticide applications per crop. These results help to identify the type of IPM portfolios considered to be adoptable by farmers and highlight the importance of substitution in IPM portfolios. As such, these results will help to direct R&D effort towards the realisation of more sustainable PM approaches and aid the identification of potential portfolio adopters. These findings highlight the opportunity that a revised agri-environmental policy design could generate in terms of enhancing coherent IPM portfolio adoption

The DICER Model: Methodological Issues and Initial Results

This paper introduces DICER, a model for the integrated assessment of climate – economy interactions within an optimal growth framework developed based on the structure of the DICE2007 model. We present the methodological differences introduced so far in DICER and some preliminary results of its deterministic version. We observe interesting results in comparison to other IAMs, such as (i) lower peak temperatures; (ii) radiative forcing differences; (iii) differences in control rates; and (iv) sensitivity of results to parameters such as climate sensitivity. A further innovation of this work has been to account for uncertainty and risk through an application of option pricing. The method allows for a simple representation of the risks through measures of volatility in the damages and abatement costs and shows that taking these factors into account lowers maximum mean temperatures by about 0.5oC. We also present some methodological issues that need to be dealt with in the near future in DICER.Climate change, Integrated Impact Assessment Model (IAM), damage function

Methodological Frontiers of Public Finance Field Experiments

The purpose of this article is to demonstrate how a rich array of methods can be applied to increase the relevance of field experiments in public economics. Two cross-cutting themes are important in multiple phases of the research. First, greater statistical sophistication can draw more value from a field experiment without obscuring the simple and compelling information from the differences in average outcomes of intervention and control groups. Second, the methodological frontier is interdisciplinary, drawing on knowledge and techniques developed in psychology, anthropology, and sociology that can be adapted in order to make public finance field experiments more useful.

Integrated Pest Management Portfolios in UK Arable Farming: Results of a Farmer Survey

BACKGROUND. Farmers are faced with a wide range of pest management (PM) options which can be adopted in isolation or alongside complement or substitute strategies. This paper presents the results of a survey of UK cereal producers focusing on the character and diversity of PM strategies currently used by, or available to, farmers. In addition, the survey asked various questions pertaining to agricultural policy participation, attitude toward environmental issues, sources of PM advice and information and the important characteristics of PM technologies. RESULTS. The results indicate that many farmers do make use of a suite of PM techniques and that their choice of integrated PM (IPM) portfolio appears to be jointly dictated by farm characteristics and Government policy. Results also indicate that portfolio choice does affect the number of subsequent insecticide applications per crop. CONCLUSIONS. These results help to identify the type of IPM portfolios considered adoptable by farmers and highlight the importance of substitution in IPM portfolios. As such, these results will help to direct R&D effort toward the realisation of more sustainable PM approaches and aid the identification of potential portfolio adopters. These findings highlight the opportunity a revised agri-environmental policy design could generate in terms of by enhancing coherent IPM portfolio adoption.Pest management; pesticide alternatives; technology and portfolio approaches;