The Global Risks Report 2016, 11th Edition

Now in its 11th edition, The Global Risks Report 2016 draws attention to ways that global risks could evolve and interact in the next decade. The year 2016 marks a forceful departure from past findings, as the risks about which the Report has been warning over the past decade are starting to manifest themselves in new, sometimes unexpected ways and harm people, institutions and economies. Warming climate is likely to raise this year's temperature to 1° Celsius above the pre-industrial era, 60 million people, equivalent to the world's 24th largest country and largest number in recent history, are forcibly displaced, and crimes in cyberspace cost the global economy an estimated US$445 billion, higher than many economies' national incomes. In this context, the Reportcalls for action to build resilience – the "resilience imperative" – and identifies practical examples of how it could be done.The Report also steps back and explores how emerging global risks and major trends, such as climate change, the rise of cyber dependence and income and wealth disparity are impacting already-strained societies by highlighting three clusters of risks as Risks in Focus. As resilience building is helped by the ability to analyse global risks from the perspective of specific stakeholders, the Report also analyses the significance of global risks to the business community at a regional and country-level

The factors which influence the selection of physical targets by terrorist groups

The aim of terrorism is to influence a group of people or institutions - the psychological target or targets - by attacking the appropriate physical targets in order to prompt the desired response. Several factors influence the selection of physical targets by non-state terrorist groups. These include the ideology of the terrorist group concerned, the strategy adopted by the group and its capabilities, its need to take account of external opinion - including that of supporters, the measures adopted to protect likely targets, and the security environment within which the terrorist group operates. In addition, decision-making is affected by the dynamics within the group which are in turn affected by the psychological pressures of clandestinity and the frequent risk of death or capture which many terrorists run. The relationship between these factors varies from group to group, which is inevitable given the idiosyncratic nature of most terrorist groups, and the different circumstances in which they find themselves. However, it can generally be said that ideology sets out the moral framework within which terrorists operate - and which determines whether terrorists judge it to be legitimate to attack a range of target. After this, the determination of which targets it will actually be beneficial to attack depends upon the strategy which the group has adopted as a means of achieving its political objectives. The determination of their strategic objectives depends upon the effects which the terrorists hope their attacks will achieve. Thus, strategy further refines the range of targets initially delimited by the group's ideology. The other factors mentioned tend to act as constraints upon the group, partly - as with security measures - in restricting them from carrying out the types of attacks which they would desire but also in encouraging them to carry out attacks on certain targets in the hope of gaining benefits such as the approval of their supporters, or of gaining publicity for their cause. Underlying all of this is the human factor, whereby relations within the group, the impact of psychological pressure, and individual differences in moral judgements may influence the targets chosen by terrorists

Fear and Loathing in Post 9/11 America: Public Perceptions of Terrorism as Shaped by News Media and the Politics of Fear

The politics of fear have deeply divided the United States of America. Decades of propaganda portray Muslims as a terrorist threat to the dominant US culture and society. The War on Terror and its consequences, including the rise of ISIL and the 2015 Syrian refugee crisis, resulted in the destabilization of democracy in both the US and Europe. I argue that the US public’s fear of terrorism is not just a fear of violence but instead reflects racial tensions and anxieties in a rapidly changing world. These tensions and anxieties are fueled by media coverage leveraging a general fear and distrust of non-white foreigners. The result of this is a pervasive fear of violent victimization at the hands of minorities, shaped by mass media content, which politicians capitalize on for their own gain. In this dissertation, I study the media effects of agenda setting, framing, and reinforcing spirals on public fear of terrorism with data from the Granite State Poll (GSP), Gallup’s Most Important Problem (MIP), and a content analysis of broadcast news transcripts from NexisUni. I expand on current research by examining the fear of terrorism from the perspectives of criminological theory, critical media studies, and racial formation theory

The multilayered effects and support received by victims of the Bali bombings : a cross cultural study in Indonesia and Australia

Introduction. In the past decade terrorist attacks and suicide bombings have killed, injured and intimidated thousands of people in many countries. In the aftermath of an attack a significant proportion of the population present with symptoms of depression, post traumatic stress disorder, and physical health problems (Boscarino & Adams, 2009, Norris et al., 2002, Bride, 2007 ). The present study examined the impact of the Bali bombings in 2002 when two bombs were deliberately exploded in the Sari night club and Paddy’s bar, in the popular tourist area of Kuta, in Bali, Indonesia.Aim of the study. The overarching aim of the study were to examine the multilayered effects and forms of support received by directly affected victims and their indirectly affected family members in both Indonesia and Australia. The perceptions of members of the Indonesian and Australian emergency response teams, community volunteers and key informants were also examined.Methods. A qualitative case study approach was used in this study, as it was important that participants told their story in their own words and according to their own unique experiences. In total 50 in-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted in Bali and Perth, with first and secondary level victims, professional and volunteer responders, and key informants. An in-depth analysis of available literature was also undertaken with a focus on the multilayered effects of terrorist attacks and the forms of post attack support that is offered to victims and their families. Other qualitative methods such as home visits, observations and documentary data collection facilitated triangulation of the data. In addition a personal reflective diary recorded the observations of the researcher during a two month field trip in Bali in early 2008.The conceptual framework for this study was based around the work of the Psychosocial Working Group (2003). Within this framework three dimensions relating to resources that help people cope in the aftermath of a disaster are explored. They are: human capacity (encompassing the skills and knowledge of the people); social ecology (encompassing familial, religious and cultural resources) and finally culture and values (encompassing cultural values, beliefs and practices). The framework was modified in this study to enhance the examination of the participant responses using the concepts of disrupted and reinforced resources.Results. In both Bali and Perth victims of all levels reported many symptoms of distress in the initial aftermath of the bombing. Most of the effects reported could be termed normal distress reactions to a very abnormal event. The poor economic situation in Bali appeared to compound and exacerbate the effects for many of the Balinese victims. As a result many of the injured and their families were left almost destitute. A number of victims described symptoms such as depression, suicidal ideations and fear during thunderstorms and the many cultural celebrations on the island.In Bali and Perth, first level victims described the importance of practical, economic, emotional and spiritual support from their families and the community. The narratives of mateship, families and communities responding to help are innumerable and are an invaluable and unique insight into this disaster. In addition, the study highlighted that many of the volunteer and professional responders also reported effects such as emotional numbing and derealisation. For most it was a temporary and understandable reaction to the difficult tasks they had to undertake.Recommendations for policy, practice and a modified framework are proposed that may be used by professionals and non-professionals in the aftermath of a terrorist attack, particularly when needing to choose appropriate and culturally relevant interventions, or by organisations who may be involved in strategically planning a response in the event of an attack.Conclusion. Although the focus of this study was a terrorist attack, the recommendations and framework proposed in chapter 9 of this study can be generalised to other forms of natural and man-made disasters. They are intended for use by professionals, nonprofessionals and agencies who are involved in a response in the aftermath of complex emergencies. The recommendations are derived and drawn from the indepth analysis of the participant interviews, and the literature. The Bali disaster showed the strength of human spirit, the resilience of victims at multiple levels and the willingness of people and countries to help each other in times of extreme distress. This framework is intended to promote a psychosocial response to any disaster situation based on the knowledge that communities have pre-existing inherent resources which can be utilised in a terrorist attack

Explosives and Incendiaries Used in Terrorist Attacks on Public Surface Transportation: A Preliminary Empirical Analysis, MTI Report WP 09-02

This report provides data on terrorist attacks against public surface transportation targets and serious crimes committed against such targets throughout the world. The data are drawn from the MTI database of attacks on public surface transportation, which is expanded and updated as information becomes available. This analysis is based on the database as of February 20, 2010. Data include the frequency and lethality with which trains, buses, and road and highway targets are attacked; the relationship between fatalities and attacks against those targets; and the relationship between injuries and attacks against them. The report presents some preliminary observations drawn from the data that can help stakeholder governments, transit managers, and employee to focus on the ways the most frequent and/or most lethal attacks are carried out as they consider measures to prevent or mitigate attacks that may be considered likely to happen in the United State

The Jihadist discourse of Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (2003-2005) : representational, intertextual and argumentative analysis

PhD ThesisThis thesis conducts a critical analysis of jihadist discourse. This is achieved by qualitatively analysing the content of Sawt al-jihad, a propagandistic e-magazine published by Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) between 2003 and 2005. The aim of the research is to establish how the jihadist worldview is discursively constructed and legitimised. The investigation is in accordance with the research programme of the Discourse-Historical Approach (DHA) and draws on an interdisciplinary model to examine the discursive features of jihadist discourse. This model includes Bourdieu’s ‘capital theory’ and ‘symbolic power’, Islamic religious epistemology, the literature on intertextuality and theories connected to Aristotelian topoi. The thesis undertakes a three-pronged analysis. The first is a representational analysis concerned with the discourse topics preferred within AQAP discourse and how the relevant social actors/actions are constructed, focusing on representation of the Self and the Other. The second analysis explores the intertextual connections via which AQAP discourse appeals to, and overlaps with, prior (sacred) texts and hearers’ repertoires of ‘old knowledge’. In this discussion, I attempt to develop a novel and systematic analytic approach to intertextuality for analysing (politico)-religious discourses and to use this approach to analyse the structurings and restructurings of AQAP discourse, which might then be applied to other texts in the same genre. Finally, the third analysis is specifically concerned with the persuasive dimension and attempts to critically identify the topoi AQAP utilises to legitimise the Self and delegitimise the Other. The ultimate aim of this project is thus not only to contribute to the body of knowledge about radical jihadism from a CDA perspective, but also to make a substantial contribution to the study of the discursive construction and reproduction of such ideologies from a wider perspective, too.Allith University College, UQU, Saudi Arabia, and financial support from the Saudi Cultural Bureau in Londo

EU Terrorism Situation and Trend Report

The EU Terrorism Situation and Trend Report (TE-SAT) was established as a reporting mechanism from the Terrorism Working Party (TWP) to the European Parliament in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks in 2001. Four editions of the TE-SAT have been presented to date by the Presidencies “based on a file and on the analyses supplied by Europol” from Member States’ contributions. 1 In the beginning of 2006, Europol proposed to widen the data collection for the TE-SAT in order to enhance the quality of the report. The proposal was endorsed by the Justice and Home Affairs Council on 1 and 2 June 2006. This TE-SAT follows the new methodology developed by Europol in consultation with the Finnish and German Presidencies, Eurojust and SITCEN. According to ENFOPOL 65 (8196/2/06), the TE-SAT is an unclassified annual document which provides information on the phenomenon of terrorism in the EU. The phenomenon of terrorism is discussed in the TE-SAT 2007 from the law enforcement point of view as a ‘crime’ although, admittedly, terrorism is fundamentally a political phenomenon driven by political motives and oriented toward political ends. As an analytical report, the TE-SAT is a situation report. It describes the outward manifestations of terrorism i.e. terrorist attacks and activities. It neither attempts to analyse the root causes of terrorism nor to assess the threat posed by terrorism. Furthermore, the TE-SAT does not assess the impact or effectiveness of counter-terrorism policies and law enforcement measures taken, despite the fact that they form an important part of the phenomenon. The TE-SAT 2007 is an EU report and as such aims at providing an overview of the situation in the EU instead of describing the situation in single Member States as was the case in earlier editions of the TE-SAT. It seeks to establish basic facts and figures regarding terrorist attacks and activities in the EU. The TE-SAT is,however, also a trend report. Since a trend can be defined as “a general tendency in the way a situation is changing or developing”, the TE-SAT is a forward-looking report, which is why the first issue of the Europol TE-SAT is called TE-SAT 2007. However, due to changes in the methodology, it is difficult to compare the findings of the TE-SAT 2007 to earlier editions of the TE-SAT and establish trends. The TE-SAT is based mainly on information contributed by the Member States concerning and resulting from criminal investigations into terrorism offences. The TE-SAT does not contain information which is classified or which could jeopardise ongoing investigations

Radicalism and Terrorism in the 21st Century

This book addresses the issues of radicalism and terrorism, which are of exceptional importance and relevance in contemporary society. Each of the two phenomena are analyzed from a multidisciplinary perspective. The book contains articles which explore legal, political, psychological, economic and social aspects of radicalism and terrorism. A portion of the contributions are of a theoretical nature, they constitute an attempt at constructing analytical frameworks for studies on the two phenomena. There are also studies of particular cases, such as radicalism in Poland and in Spain, as well as within the European Union as a whole. This collective work is a response to the need for analyses of two issues which are increasingly responsible for determining the level of security which characterizes the contemporary world

Global Risks 2014, Ninth Edition.

The Global Risks 2014 report highlights how global risks are not only interconnected but also have systemic impacts. To manage global risks effectively and build resilience to their impacts, better efforts are needed to understand, measure and foresee the evolution of interdependencies between risks, supplementing traditional risk-management tools with new concepts designed for uncertain environments. If global risks are not effectively addressed, their social, economic and political fallouts could be far-reaching, as exemplified by the continuing impacts of the financial crisis of 2007-2008