3,383 research outputs found

    A meta-analysis of state-of-the-art electoral prediction from Twitter data

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    Electoral prediction from Twitter data is an appealing research topic. It seems relatively straightforward and the prevailing view is overly optimistic. This is problematic because while simple approaches are assumed to be good enough, core problems are not addressed. Thus, this paper aims to (1) provide a balanced and critical review of the state of the art; (2) cast light on the presume predictive power of Twitter data; and (3) depict a roadmap to push forward the field. Hence, a scheme to characterize Twitter prediction methods is proposed. It covers every aspect from data collection to performance evaluation, through data processing and vote inference. Using that scheme, prior research is analyzed and organized to explain the main approaches taken up to date but also their weaknesses. This is the first meta-analysis of the whole body of research regarding electoral prediction from Twitter data. It reveals that its presumed predictive power regarding electoral prediction has been rather exaggerated: although social media may provide a glimpse on electoral outcomes current research does not provide strong evidence to support it can replace traditional polls. Finally, future lines of research along with a set of requirements they must fulfill are provided.Comment: 19 pages, 3 table

    Diverse randomized agents vote to win

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    We investigate the power of voting among diverse, randomized software agents. With teams of computer Go agents in mind, we develop a novel theoretical model of two-stage noisy voting that builds on recent work in machine learning. This model allows us to reason about a collection of agents with different biases (determined by the first-stage noise models), which, furthermore, apply randomized algorithms to evaluate alternatives and produce votes (captured by the second-stage noise models). We analytically demonstrate that a uniform team, consisting of multiple instances of any single agent, must make a significant number of mistakes, whereas a diverse team converges to perfection as the number of agents grows. Our experiments, which pit teams of computer Go agents against strong agents, provide evidence for the effectiveness of voting when agents are diverse

    Truth Discovery in Crowdsourced Detection of Spatial Events

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    ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This research is based upon work supported in part by the US ARL and UK Ministry of Defense under Agreement Number W911NF-06-3-0001, and by the NSF under award CNS-1213140. Any opinions, findings and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or represent the official policies of the NSF, the US ARL, the US Government, the UK Ministry of Defense or the UK Government. The US and UK Governments are authorized to reproduce and distribute reprints for Government purposes notwithstanding any copyright notation hereon.Peer reviewedPostprin

    Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics

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    A substantial school in the philosophy of science identifies Bayesian inference with inductive inference and even rationality as such, and seems to be strengthened by the rise and practical success of Bayesian statistics. We argue that the most successful forms of Bayesian statistics do not actually support that particular philosophy but rather accord much better with sophisticated forms of hypothetico-deductivism. We examine the actual role played by prior distributions in Bayesian models, and the crucial aspects of model checking and model revision, which fall outside the scope of Bayesian confirmation theory. We draw on the literature on the consistency of Bayesian updating and also on our experience of applied work in social science. Clarity about these matters should benefit not just philosophy of science, but also statistical practice. At best, the inductivist view has encouraged researchers to fit and compare models without checking them; at worst, theorists have actively discouraged practitioners from performing model checking because it does not fit into their framework.Comment: 36 pages, 5 figures. v2: Fixed typo in caption of figure 1. v3: Further typo fixes. v4: Revised in response to referee

    The Cord Weekly (February 21, 1991)

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    Theo-Political Conspiracy Discourse in \u3cem\u3eThe Wanderer\u3c/em\u3e

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    This study undertakes an intensive analysis of The Wanderer, an ultra·conservative Catholic weekly newspaper. It is argued that con· spiracy discourse in The Wanderer provides a continuous series of god and devil terms that playoff one another as generic warrants authorizing a domino effect that solidifies an over·arching rhetorical vision, which ultimately affects the interpretation of U.S. Roman Catholic Church doctrine and its application to a number of contem· porary socio·political issues. Discowse emanating from this particular publication is representative of a paranoid style and provides a case study for tracing operant terms in an ongoing backlash movement

    Community Detection in Weighted Multilayer Networks with Ambient Noise

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    We introduce a novel class of stochastic blockmodel for multilayer weighted networks that accounts for the presence of a global ambient noise that governs between-block interactions. We induce a hierarchy of classifications in weighted multilayer networks by assuming that all but one cluster (block) are governed by unique local signals, while a single block is classified as ambient noise, which behaves identically as interactions across differing blocks. Hierarchical variational inference is employed to jointly detect and typologize block-structures as local signals or global noise. These principles are incorporated into novel community detection algorithm called Stochastic Block (with) Ambient Noise Model (SBANM) for multilayer weighted networks. We apply this method to several different domains. We focus on the Philadelphia Neurodevelopmental Cohort to discover communities of subjects that form diagnostic categories relating psychopathological symptoms to psychosis.Comment: 27 page
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