Heavy-tailed Distributions In Stochastic Dynamical Models

Heavy-tailed distributions are found throughout many naturally occurring phenomena. We have reviewed the models of stochastic dynamics that lead to heavy-tailed distributions (and power law distributions, in particular) including the multiplicative noise models, the models subjected to the Degree-Mass-Action principle (the generalized preferential attachment principle), the intermittent behavior occurring in complex physical systems near a bifurcation point, queuing systems, and the models of Self-organized criticality. Heavy-tailed distributions appear in them as the emergent phenomena sensitive for coupling rules essential for the entire dynamics

Calculation of aggregate loss distributions

Estimation of the operational risk capital under the Loss Distribution Approach requires evaluation of aggregate (compound) loss distributions which is one of the classic problems in risk theory. Closed-form solutions are not available for the distributions typically used in operational risk. However with modern computer processing power, these distributions can be calculated virtually exactly using numerical methods. This paper reviews numerical algorithms that can be successfully used to calculate the aggregate loss distributions. In particular Monte Carlo, Panjer recursion and Fourier transformation methods are presented and compared. Also, several closed-form approximations based on moment matching and asymptotic result for heavy-tailed distributions are reviewed

Queue Length Asymptotics for Generalized Max-Weight Scheduling in the presence of Heavy-Tailed Traffic

We investigate the asymptotic behavior of the steady-state queue length distribution under generalized max-weight scheduling in the presence of heavy-tailed traffic. We consider a system consisting of two parallel queues, served by a single server. One of the queues receives heavy-tailed traffic, and the other receives light-tailed traffic. We study the class of throughput optimal max-weight-alpha scheduling policies, and derive an exact asymptotic characterization of the steady-state queue length distributions. In particular, we show that the tail of the light queue distribution is heavier than a power-law curve, whose tail coefficient we obtain explicitly. Our asymptotic characterization also contains an intuitively surprising result - the celebrated max-weight scheduling policy leads to the worst possible tail of the light queue distribution, among all non-idling policies. Motivated by the above negative result regarding the max-weight-alpha policy, we analyze a log-max-weight (LMW) scheduling policy. We show that the LMW policy guarantees an exponentially decaying light queue tail, while still being throughput optimal

Distributed Nonparametric Sequential Spectrum Sensing under Electromagnetic Interference

A nonparametric distributed sequential algorithm for quick detection of spectral holes in a Cognitive Radio set up is proposed. Two or more local nodes make decisions and inform the fusion centre (FC) over a reporting Multiple Access Channel (MAC), which then makes the final decision. The local nodes use energy detection and the FC uses mean detection in the presence of fading, heavy-tailed electromagnetic interference (EMI) and outliers. The statistics of the primary signal, channel gain or the EMI is not known. Different nonparametric sequential algorithms are compared to choose appropriate algorithms to be used at the local nodes and the FC. Modification of a recently developed random walk test is selected for the local nodes for energy detection as well as at the fusion centre for mean detection. It is shown via simulations and analysis that the nonparametric distributed algorithm developed performs well in the presence of fading, EMI and is robust to outliers. The algorithm is iterative in nature making the computation and storage requirements minimal.Comment: 8 pages; 6 figures; Version 2 has the proofs for the theorems. Version 3 contains a new section on approximation analysi