Applying Bayes linear methods to support reliability procurement decisions

Bayesian methods are common in reliability and risk assessment, however, such methods often demand a large amount of specification and can be computationally intensive. Because of this, many practitioners are unable to take advantage of many of the benefits found in a Bayesian-based approach. The Bayes linear methodology is similar in spirit to a Bayesian approach but offers an alternative method of making inferences. Bayes linear methods are based on the use of expected values rather than probabilities, and updating is carried out by linear adjustment rather than by Bayes Theorem. The foundations of the method are very strong, based as they are in work of De Finetti and developed further by Goldstein. A Bayes linear model requires less specification than a corresponding probability model and for a given amount of model building effort, one can model a more complex situation quicker. The Bayes linear methodology has the potential to allow us to build ''broad-brush' models that enable us, for example, to explore different test setups or analysis methods and assess the benefits that they can give. The output a Bayes linear model is viewed as an approximation to 'traditional' probabilistic models. The methodology has been applied to support reliability decision making within a current United Kingdom Ministry of Defence (MOD) procurement project. The reliability decision maker had to assess different contractor bids and assess the reliability merit of each bid. Currently the MOD assess reliability programmes subjectively using expert knowledge - for a number of reasons, a quantitative method of assessment in some projects is desirable. The Bayes linear methodology was used to support the decision maker in quantifying his assessment of the reliability of each contractor's bid and determining the effectiveness of each contractor's reliability programme. From this, the decision maker was able to communicate to the project leader and contractors, why a specific contractor was chosen. The methodology has been used in other MOD projects and is considered by those within the MOD as a useful tool to support decision making. The paper will contain the following. The paper will introduce the Bayes linear methodology and briefly discuss some of the philosophical implications of adopting a Bayes linear methodology within the context of a reliability programme analysis. The paper will briefly introduce the reliability domain and the reasons why it is believed that the Bayes linear methodology can offer support to decision makers. An in-depth analysis of the problem will then be given documenting the steps taken in the project and how future decision makers can apply the methodology. A brief summary will then be given as to possible future work for those interested in the Bayes linear methodology

“We Need a Showing of All Hands”: Technological Utopianism in \u3cem\u3eMAKE\u3c/em\u3e Magazine

Make magazine is a quarterly publication focused on do-it-yourself projects involving technology and innovation. The magazine also sponsors a biannual event, the Maker Faire, that brings “makers” together to share their knowledge. As a strategy for building audience loyalty and identification with the magazine, the Make products are skillfully crafted. However, they also invoke ideals such as environmentalism and nationalism in a potent mix that not only engages readers, but also represents an additional cultural demonstration of the phenomenon of technological utopianism

Innovation attributes and managers' decisions about the adoption of innovations in organizations: A meta-analytical review

The adop­tion of in­no­va­tions has emerged as a dom­i­nant re­search topic in the man­age­ment of in­no­va­tion in or­ga­ni­za­tions, al­though in­ves­ti­ga­tions of­ten yield mixed re­sults. To help man­agers and re­searchers im­prove their ef­fec­tive­ness, the au­thors em­ployed a meta-analy­sis in­te­grated with struc­tural equa­tion mod­el­ing to an­a­lyze the as­so­ci­a­tions be­tween the at­trib­utes of in­no­va­tions, man­agers' be­hav­ioral pref­er­ences, and or­ga­ni­za­tions' in­no­va­tion adop­tion de­ci­sions in a me­di­ated-mod­er­ated frame­work. Our find­ings of­fer ev­i­dence that at­trib­utes of in­no­va­tions in­flu­ence man­agers' be­hav­ioral pref­er­ences and, con­se­quently, adop­tion de­ci­sions in or­ga­ni­za­tions. We also ob­serve the sig­nif­i­cance of the con­text in which the adop­tion de­ci­sion oc­curs as well as the re­search set­tings em­ployed by schol­ars. Fi­nally, we dis­cuss the the­o­ret­i­cal con­tri­bu­tion and prac­ti­cal im­pli­ca­tions of our meta-an­a­lyt­i­cal re­sults

Market response to economic policies: a stumbling block for policymakers

Rational expectations (Economic theory) ; Economic policy ; Econometric models

Fuzzy sets, rough sets, and modeling evidence: Theory and Application. A Dempster-Shafer based approach to compromise decision making with multiattributes applied to product selection

The Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence is applied to a multiattribute decision making problem whereby the decision maker (DM) must compromise with available alternatives, none of which exactly satisfies his ideal. The decision mechanism is constrained by the uncertainty inherent in the determination of the relative importance of each attribute element and the classification of existing alternatives. The classification of alternatives is addressed through expert evaluation of the degree to which each element is contained in each available alternative. The relative importance of each attribute element is determined through pairwise comparisons of the elements by the decision maker and implementation of a ratio scale quantification method. Then the 'belief' and 'plausibility' that an alternative will satisfy the decision maker's ideal are calculated and combined to rank order the available alternatives. Application to the problem of selecting computer software is given

Multiple Referrals and Multidimensional Cheap Talk

Cheap talk games have been widely used to analyze situations in which a policy maker needs expert advice. In previous work, agent uncertainty has almost always been modeled using a single-dimensional state variable. In this paper we prove that the dimensionality of the uncertain variable has an important qualitative impact on results and yields interesting insights into the 'mechanics' of information transmission. Contrary to the unidimensional case, with more than one dimension full transmission of information in all states of nature is typically possible, provided a very simple and intuitive condition is satisfied. When utilities are quadratic and there are simultaneous reports, linear independence of senders' ideal points is a sufficient condition to guarantee full revelation; with sequential reports, linear independence and a simple condition on the gradients of senders' utilities at the receiver's ideal point are sufficient. In particular as an application of the theory we are able to explain an empirical puzzle related to informational theories of legislative organization. These theories predict that legislative committees (senders) should have strong alignment of preferences with the Floor; but this doesn't fit with empirical facts. We prove that what really matters in transmission of information is the local behavior of the utilities of the senders at the ideal point of the policy maker (receiver), not the distances between the ideal points of players. We interpret this as an argument in support of informational theories of legislative organizations.