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    Noise Pollution

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    The authors of Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment are a trio of intellectual heavy hitters: Nobel-prize winner Daniel Kahneman, constitutional law scholar Cass Sunstein, and former McKinsey consultant (and current management professor) Olivier Sibony. As prolific as they are prominent, the three of them have collectively produced over fifty books and hundreds of articles, including some of the most cited research in social science. If academic publishing ever becomes an Olympic sport, they’ll be prime medal contenders, particularly if they get to compete as a team or on a relay. Their combined coverage of law, economics, psychology, medicine, education, finance, political science, corporate strategy, statistics, and even Star Wars gives the book the feel of a cognitive decathlon. This review focuses on a key distinction introduced at the very beginning of the book: the difference between bias and noise. It then offers several ways to think about this distinction, as well as specific steps you can take to avoid—or at least minimize—the damage that noise in particular creates. Following these steps is unlikely to win you any awards for innovative management. Nor will conducting the “Noise Audit” attached as an appendix to the book. As one of the authors himself acknowledges, noise prevention is “a little bit thankless.” Yet what you miss out in terms of gratitude and acclaim, you might gain in terms of efficiency, accuracy, and fairness. You don’t need Daniel Kahneman’s Nobel Prize in Economics to know that’s a pretty good trade-off

    Ba Win

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    Selected excerpts from the Oral History Project interview. The full transcript may be restricted. To request access contact the Simon’s Rock College Archives. Mr. [George] Gilder was invited to do a talk and it happened in the lecture center. It was a packed house. [...] At the end of the talk, in the questions part, a number of students had come really, really well prepared. And they asked questions but it was not the usual pedestrian question. They would ask something detailed and Gilder would kind of treat it like some common response. But then the student would say “look, the statistics, Mr. Gilder, are these” and blah blah and blah blah and contradict him right there. And then, out of nowhere-- you could not see it-- on the PA system, came a whole bunch of absolutely ridiculous things that Mr. Reagan had said, in his own voice. These were taped snippets, one after another. Bob Ackerman, who was then the head of the school, was beside himself. He had this distinguished guest and then on the audio system were these authentic, not made up, Mr. Reagan quotes saying absolutely foolish things. And the guests didn’t know what to do at first but after a while people began to laugh and it kind of ended in a, you know, confused mess. Because Bob was saying “Unplug it! Unplug it!” but there was nothing to unplug! [...] It was a brilliant and cerebral joke. It wasn’t drowning and insulting him by saying lousy things. It was bringing up things that were incontrovertible and doing it in such a clever way. I was so proud! [Leon Botstein introduced the Seminar program.] His feeling there was that all of college should not be like a Chinese restaurant menu, something from column A, something from column B, and so on. There ought to be a unifying intellectual experience. And yes, I will be arbitrary by saying we should read this, this, and this and not that, that, and that, but the works are not carved in stone. It’s just important to have everyone do the same thing. Over time you can change what that thing comprises of, but he said it ought to be possible to have a campus-wide conversation about it. Pat Sharpe, who was the academic dean, said to me “Ba Win, I need you to teach freshman seminar.” Me? What are you talking about? I haven’t read any of these books, you know? But what had happened was, someone who had committed to teaching it left. And suddenly we had a section with nobody to teach it. I furiously read. I was one week ahead of my class all the time-- because I’d have to read it two, three times. Then as it happened, Pat [Sharpe]’s class met at ten o’clock. And my class met at one o’clock or something like that. So I would go to Pat’s class and sit with the students and listen. Because I had read the stuff, hear kinds of questions that got raised and the way Pat would discuss it. And then I’d go to my class, heart in my mouth, and go-- you know, it worked out. Because I would say to them “I don’t know. I’m new to it too. But the working idea is that I know how to read and I know how to think and together we can figure it out.” And do you know, it was the most exciting-- it was more exciting than any class I ever had at Kalamazoo College. Because there, the specialists talked and we took notes. And here, Simon’s Rock, as you know from your own experience, there are some really unusual people here. Quirky, imaginative, willing to just-- burst out with whatever comes to mind. And sometimes it’s totally foolish and we all have a good laugh. And sometimes it’s jaw-dropping. How did you find this? I read the same thing and that never occurred to me! So it was-- I became a believer. Oh, I loved [Livy] to pieces. I used to spend Wednesday mornings with him, from about 8:30 to 10:00. Livy was about 6’6”, very tall man, but by the time I met him, he was stooped. And he was such a thoughtful person. I would talk to him about whatever was bothering me with my work. And if a question came up, his frequent response was, “Well, let me think.” And we’d go into this thirty seconds of quiet where he would-- he always was cogitating. He would think through, and he would never tell me what to do. He would say “Well, there are many ways to look at it,” and he would trot them out. He was such a nice person. He was a one-man scholarship bank. In my time, in just the years that I knew him, probably about thirty kids had their-- the tuitions that they owed that they couldn’t pay-- taken care of. [...] It was never formal-- nobody ever announced it, I certainly wouldn’t talk about it. But if it came to my attention that somebody needed help, I brought it to him. He’d just write a check. He was a very, very generous man. I’d been here all of two weeks at the time, and [Doreen Young] had a talk for the incoming freshman class. [There was] a slide of a Japanese painting. Kind of characteristically, it was not a painting filled with stuff, it was a spare looking painting. She knew how to elicit a response from the group. And then she said, right towards the end, “Do you know, if the painter had added two more lines, the painting would not have been this good? It would have spoiled the effect.” She said, “The painter had to exercise restraint.” And it was like a bomb. She was telling young people, sixteen year old people, who are just filled with life, that there is virtue to restraint, to not doing the next thing.https://digitalcommons.bard.edu/sr-oral_hist/1001/thumbnail.jp

    Otter Realm, October 16, 2014

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    Requiem for a Contract: CSU Faculty Protest for Smaller Classes and Adequate Raises -- The Intersection of Hope and Freedom -- What You Otter Be Doing October 16 - October 29 -- A Glimpse of What Could Be: National Consortium of Scholars Discuss Social Action Through Humanities, Arts and Design --Feds Pay Homage to Central Coast Veterans: Final Resting Ground Approved -- Putting Up A Clean Front: Monterey\u27s Sit-Lie Ban Hides the Homeless Population -- Bill Bans Gay/Trans Panic Defense: Good News for LGBTQQ+ Community -- It\u27s Out-Ober: Here Is What You Need To Know -- Monterey Bay Experiences A Whale of a Season: Humpback Whales Put On Quite A Show Feeding Closer To Shore Than Ever Before -- An Epicenter Of Change For Youth: CSUMB Alumni Bring Hope To Salinas At-Risk Youth -- Our Lost Youth: The Startling Statistics Of Youth Homicides And How It Is Being Addressed -- Students Divided Over Language Requirement: Is CSU Monterey Bay\u27s Language Requirement Still Relevant? -- Otter Spotlight: Kim Edwards -- General Education Requirements: What\u27s The General Opinion On General Education? -- Requiem for a Contract: CSU Faculty Protest for Smaller Classes and Adequate Raises -- Finding Cultural And Spiritual Connections: Passions And Traditions Come To Life During Native American Heritage Month Celebrations -- Surfing Up Awareness: Monterey Bay Aquarium Teams Up With Big Wave Surf Contest, Titans Of Mavericks -- Fighting For Democracy From Abroad: International Students React To Occupy Protests While Away From Home -- From Virtuous To Vixen: Pop Culture Pressures On Halloween Looks -- Halloween Haunts And Fort Ording: It\u27s That Time Of Year, And Who Doesn\u27t Love A Good Ghost Story? -- Valley of the Heart Graces The World Theater: Renown Playwright, Luis Valdez, Talks About His Latest Play -- Otter Ebert\u27s Netflix Pick Of The Week: Ever Had An STD Scare? That Is Nothing Compared To Watching Contracted -- IAMSU! And Roach Gigz Bring Hip Hop To Campus: Bay Area Rappers Show CSUMB Students Love -- Carmel International Film Festival Returns: A Weekend Of Film, Art And Culture -- Big Sur, Big Beauty: Big Sur Offers Plenty Of Trails To Take In It\u27s Beauty -- College Parenting: A Balancing Act -- Yes Means Yes Is In: Affirmative Consent Law Sets Standards For Universities -- #FirstWorldProblems You Otter Complain -- Do you believe current General Education requirements to be beneficial to your overall college experience? -- Midnight Snackhttps://digitalcommons.csumb.edu/otterrealm/1275/thumbnail.jp

    Letter from Mary to Family- March 29, 1925

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    This letter was written by Mary to her family during the spring of her Freshman year of college. The letter is comprised of 7 sheets of pink paper, with handwriting in blue ink on on side of each sheet. On the back of the final page, there is a note added in pencil. In this letter, Mary writes about receiving flowers from home, deciding against purchasing a hat, college expenses, buying music for her vocal lessons, and plans for her parents to visit her on campus. She also reminds her father that she expects answers to questions she had asked him about his church\u27s Daily Vacation Bible School (D.V.B.S.). Transcription: Sun. Mar 29. Dear Family— Have been laughing so hard this afternoon. Just came up from one of the girls room. Have been there since dinner and it is now 2:30. We have had marvelous weather this last week - but today the sun isn’t out and it’s actually cold and snowing! Couldn’t imagine what was in the box when it came. The flowers are beautiful. They weren’t a bit wilted or crushed. The hyacynth wasn’t crushed at all but the florist moss had stolen all of its odor. It certainly made a lovely boquet. I am sitting up in bed. Have a clean pair of P.J’s on. —Am anxious to get my laundry as usual. Before you had written saying (in your last letter) that I had better not get a hat-I had already decided I wouldn’t.- so had my green hat cleaned last week & it looks fine .- also had my grey & white dress cleaned Had two pairs of shoes repaired which alone cost 3:00. Then the cleaning bill was 4.25 So you see it amounted to 7.25. How money does go - and not unnecessarily .- Have all my college bills paid and counting all the money I have left - it amounts to $44.00. I have to buy music all the time. Miss Arnold has begun me on some English pieces- that is some of Mendelsans short selections. They are pretty. I find reading quite difficult. Would be nice if you wrote Agnes Fayes. Also, Boots says neither you nor Esther have answered her letters. Did you get Jean’s letter. She says she hasn’t heard from you. Glad you can know some of the girls in a personal way before you come. - Dad - you said something about getting to 3 Wooster on the 15th (Wed). If you could get here the 14th (Tue) I could get you to talk in Student Volunteers. For many reasons would it be fine if you could do that. Wish you would write and tell me just when. Hope it is a Tuesday. I thought mother could come May 14 - you said something about having a missionary meeting then. I do want mother to be here the 15th (Fri) She can visit a “lit” and (Sat) 16th is May day. It would be fine if she could come about (Wed) 13th and stay till the following Tue or Wed. I want her to live here about a week - to understand all that is ours & get every phase of our college life. There will be many many strangers in Wooster over the weekend - people from miles around come here for May day besides all the alumni & students friends. - So in order to see Wooster as it is to us all the time she’ll have to stay 4 the first part of the following week at least and while she is here (she might not get here again) I want her to get it all. It’s too long a trip to stay only a few days when it would be possible to stay longer. Hope you plan now-. I certainly am planning and have made Dorm. reservations for that weekend - as we have to early - there will be so many here. I am so anxious to have a talk with you, Dad. Hope that nothing keeps you from coming here on your trip & I can easily get a cheap bunk for you over at the Lodge - That is Mandy is in the 5th section (section of future missionary & ministers) & he would be only too glad to take you in. You would 5value very much talking to these fellows. I certainly hope you plan to stay over night here. There are so many things to talk about. When I was home, we didn’t have a chance to talk about my college affairs & you will be here amidst them & there will be so much to tell you & it will help me so much. I need it strength & understanding - advice & help — I just threw the ink bottle over to Boots. She caught it. ———— ———— Will probably add more. Much Love Bean. 6. After C.E. now! Paul & I went to church. He has quit dancing thru my influence - he says. He is certainly a good fellow at heart. Dad, remember that letter I wrote you which was nothing but questions concerning your D.V.B.S. you haven’t mentioned any things about that - and I certainly would like to know - couldn’t you send statistics as soon as possible or bring them with you when you come to Wooster. What I want to know is as much about last yrs D.V.B.S. work as possible. I haven’t a thing to start on. Performed my first operation last Fri. Mandy asked Boots & I over to the embryology lab to see some chick embryos - We got 4 good eggs out of 9. I opened one of them. It certainly is wonderful - to see the heart beat after it is out of the egg even for 1/2 . 7. Then we went to the convent. Another fellow there walked with Boots & Mandy walked with me. Mandy & I had a wonderful talk. He is such a fine fellow & engaged - Have decided not to have any more dates with Not because of anything he has said or done in my presence. Asked the advice of 2 upper class girls & Mandy. Must stop now. It’s late— Solution of Christianity including Mrs Dotsons Chaple Tuesday after Easterhttps://openworks.wooster.edu/marybehner_papers/1034/thumbnail.jp

    State Criminal Laws Could Be a Light in the Dark for the Hidden Victims of Forced Marriage

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    (Excerpt) “There’s something you need to know about me . . . I am dead,” said Fraidy Reiss, a survivor of an abusive forced marriage, as she stood alone on a stage, speaking to a crowd. “I know what you’re thinking, [I don’t] look particularly dead . . . you might want to tell that to my family [because] they declared me dead almost thirteen years ago.” Reiss, who founded the organization Unchained at Last to help forced marriage victims like herself, grew up in an ultra-Orthodox Jewish community in Brooklyn. Right after finishing high school, Reiss was asked to choose a husband from a small pool of suitors. Reiss described her then-self as a “clueless teenage virgin who had never before been allowed to talk to a boy.” She recalled her family “tapping their feet” waiting for her to choose a husband after giving her “a matter of hours over a period of weeks” to make the life-changing decision. Reiss recalled feeling afraid that, by the age of twenty, she would be the only one of her friends “damned to a lifetime of singlehood in a community where being single is considered very shameful.” Only a week after walking down the aisle to what she called her “execution,” Reiss cowered in fear as her husband punched his fist through a wall in a “blind rage.” He threatened to kill her a few days later. She was forbidden from using birth control and forced to have intercourse with him, resulting in the birth of her first child eleven months after their wedding. She had limited financial and legal rights and remained trapped in the marriage for twelve years. After finally escaping with her two children, Reiss was shunned by her family. Although Reiss expressed that she was “born and bred” in Brooklyn, she experienced abuse that “people assume doesn’t happen in America.” Indeed, widespread perceptions that forced marriage does not occur in the United States are seriously misguided and likely a result of researchers, policymakers, and the media ignoring the issue. In 2011, the Tahirih Justice Center (Tahirih) produced the only national prevalence statistics on forced marriage to date and identified as many as 3,000 cases of forced marriage. Notably, two out of three respondents to the study felt there were cases of forced marriage that were not being identified.” While the Tahirih survey focused on immigrant communities, forced marriage is not an abuse experienced exclusively by immigrants. In addition to ultra-Orthodox Jewish communities, forced marriage escape stories have come out of the Fundamentalist Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints (FLDS) and other U.S. religious organizations

    TULEVAISUUDEN AMMATTIKORKEAKOULUSSA ITE-JOHTAJUUS ROHKAISEE NOPEUTTAMAAN OPINTOJA : Ikäjohtajuus suurennuslasissa -kyselytutkimus 2011

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    Huhtikuussa 2011 Keski-Pohjanmaan ammattikorkeakoulussa (KPAMK) järjestettiin nuorille ammattikorkeakouluopiskelijoille suunnattu “Ikäjohtajuus suurennuslasissa ©” -kyselytutkimus opinnäytetyön laatijan omana suunnittelutyönä ja toteutuksena. Otannassa oli mukana 155 nuorta opiskelijaa. Kyselylomake sisälsi 40 kysymystä, jotka analysoitiin SPSS 18 PASW Statistics -tilasto-ohjelmalla. Opinnäytetyössä kyselytutkimuksen tarkoituksena oli luoda työkalu, ITE-ohjelma, ammattikorkeakoulun koulutusprosessin kehittämiseksi huomioiden eri koulutusohjelmien tarpeet. Ammattikorkeakoulujen tutkintokohtaiset ITE-ohjelmat auttavat opiskelijoita valmistumaan nopeammin, ja työurat pitenevät. Yleisesti tiedetään hyvin, että erilaisia johtajuusteorioita on useita, mutta heikommin tiedetään, mitä työntekijän alaistaidoilla tarkoitetaan. Opinnäytetyön tarkoituksena oli selvittää, mitä esimies- ja alaistaitoja nuoret ammattikorkeakouluopiskelijat KPAMK:ssa eri tutkinnon aloilla tarvitsevat. Näitä taitoja kutsutaan opinnäytetyössä ”yleisiksi työelämätaidoiksi”. Opinnäytetyön teoreettinen osuus käsittelee muun ohella ikäjohtamista, itsensä johta-mista, jaettua johtamista ja positiivista psykologiaa. Työn empiirinen osuus koostuu pääasiallisesti määrällisen aineiston analyysistä, jota tukee laadullinen aineisto. Kirjoittaja reflektoi KPAMK:ssa opiskelevana aikuisopiskelijana myös hiljaisen tiedon ja aikaisemman yrittäjäkokemuksen kautta saamiaan tietoja. Kehittämistehtävän yhteydessä kuvataan KPAMK:n opiskelijoiden koulutusprosessia ja heidän toiveitaan sitä kohtaan. Koulutuksen yhteydessä pätee vanha sanonta Yykkareiden ja Zetojen – vuoden 1990 jälkeen syntyneiden ikäpolvien – kohdalla: ”He eivät välitä siitä, kuinka paljon tiedät, ennen kuin he tietävät, kuinka paljon välität!” Opinnäytetyö antaa suosituksia ja jatkokehittämisideoita.In April 2011 a questionnaire was distributed to the students of Central Ostrobothnia University of Applied Sciences (COU). The questionnaire was made by a student and it was called “Ikäjohtajuus suurennuslasissa ©” (Age Leadership under the Magnifying Glass). It consisted of 40 questions and was given to 155 young students in COU. The data was analyzed using the SPSS 18.0 statistics program. The objective of the questionnaire was to develop the writer’s own tool, ITE-programme, to evaluate education process. The different applications were formed to meet the needs of the different degree programmes. ITE-programme helps students to graduate faster and get longer working careers. We all know there are several theories about management, leadership and managerial skills but few of us know, what it means, if we talk about organizational citizenship skills. The aim of the thesis is to find out what kind of managerial and organizational citizenship skills and expertise in certain professions the young students in COU need. In this thesis these skills are called “general skills of working life”. The theoretical part of the thesis deals with age leadership, self-leadership, shared leader-ship and positive psychology. The analysis methods in the empirical part of the research consisted mainly of the quantitative method but also the qualitative method was used for support. The writer also reflected on her own studies and tacit knowledge about manage-ment and entrepreneurship as an adult student of COU. The development project clarified the education process of the students in COU and their needs for it. In education circles there is an old saying about Y-ers and Zeds (generations born after 1990): “They don’t care how much you know, until they know how much you care!” The thesis gave recommendations and further development ideas.Osa tämän opinnäytetyön liitteistä (vaakasuora-asettelu) on toisessa pdf-tiedostossa teknisten syiden vuoksi

    Mathematics, statistics and archaeometry: the past 50 years or so

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    This review of developments in the use of mathematics and statistics in archaeometry over the past 50 years is partial, personal and 'broad-brush'. The view is expressed that it is in the past 30 years or so that the major developments have taken place. The view is also expressed that, with the exception of methods for analysing radiocarbon dates and increased computational power, mathematical and statistical methods that are currently used, and found to be useful in widespread areas of application such as provenance studies, don't differ fundamentally from what was being done 30 years ago

    A qualitative comparison of how older breast cancer survivors process treatment information regarding endocrine therapy.

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    BACKGROUND:It remains unclear how information about aromatase inhibitors (AI) impacts women's decision-making about persistence with endocrine therapy. PURPOSE:To describe and compare how women treated for primary early stage breast cancer either persisting or not persisting with an AI received, interpreted, and acted upon AI-related information. DESIGN:Thematic analysis was used to sort and compare the data into the most salient themes. PARTICIPANTS:Women (N = 54; 27 persisting, 27 not persisting with an AI) aged 65-93 years took part in qualitative interviews. RESULTS:Women in both subgroups described information similarly in terms of its value, volume, type, and source. Aspects of AI-related information that either differed between the subgroups or were misunderstood by one or both subgroups included: (1) knowledge of AI or tamoxifen prior to cancer diagnosis, (2) use of online resources, (3) misconceptions about estrogen, hormone replacement therapies and AI-related symptoms, and (4) risk perception and the meaning and use of recurrence statistics such as Oncotype DX. CONCLUSIONS:Persisters and nonpersisters were similar in their desire for more information about potential side effects and symptom management at AI prescription and subsequent appointments. Differences included how information was obtained and interpreted. Interactive discussion questions are shared that can incorporate these findings into clinical settings

    Humean Effective Strategies

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    In a now-classic paper, Nancy Cartwright argued that the Humean conception of causation as mere regular co-occurrence is too weak to make sense of our everyday and scientific practices. Specifically she claimed that in order to understand our reasoning about, and uses of, effective strategies, we need a metaphysically stronger notion of causation and causal laws than Humeanism allows. Cartwright’s arguments were formulated in the framework of probabilistic causation, and it is precisely in the domain of (objective) probabilities that I am interested in defending a form of Humeanism. In this paper I will unpack some examples of effective strategies and discuss how well they fit the framework of causal laws and criteria such as CC from Cartwright’s and others’ works on probabilistic causality. As part of this discussion, I will also consider the concept or concepts of objective probability presupposed in these works. I will argue that Cartwright’s notion of a nomological machine, or a mechanism as defined by Stuart Glennan, is better suited for making sense of effective strategies, and therefore that a metaphysically primitive notion of causal law (or singular causation, or capacity, as Cartwright argues in (1989)) is not – here, at least – needed. These conclusions, as well as the concept of objective probabilities I defend, are largely in harmony with claims Cartwright defends in The Dappled World. My discussion aims, thus, to bring out into the open how far Cartwright’s current views are from a radically anti-Humean, causal-fundamentalist picture
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