The probability approach in economic methodology: On the relation between Haavelmo's legacy and the methodology of economics (Revised version)

Economics

Conversing with Copilot: Exploring Prompt Engineering for Solving CS1 Problems Using Natural Language

GitHub Copilot is an artificial intelligence model for automatically generating source code from natural language problem descriptions. Since June 2022, Copilot has officially been available for free to all students as a plug-in to development environments like Visual Studio Code. Prior work exploring OpenAI Codex, the underlying model that powers Copilot, has shown it performs well on typical CS1 problems thus raising concerns about the impact it will have on how introductory programming courses are taught. However, little is known about the types of problems for which Copilot does not perform well, or about the natural language interactions that a student might have with Copilot when resolving errors. We explore these questions by evaluating the performance of Copilot on a publicly available dataset of 166 programming problems. We find that it successfully solves around half of these problems on its very first attempt, and that it solves 60\% of the remaining problems using only natural language changes to the problem description. We argue that this type of prompt engineering, which we believe will become a standard interaction between human and Copilot when it initially fails, is a potentially useful learning activity that promotes computational thinking skills, and is likely to change the nature of code writing skill development

Proceedings of the 2014 Berry Summer Thesis Institute

Thanks to a gift from the Berry Family Foundation and the Berry family, the University Honors Program launched the Berry Summer Thesis Institute in 2012. The institute introduces students in the University Honors Program to intensive research, scholarship opportunities and professional development. Each student pursues a 12-week summer thesis research project under the guidance of a UD faculty mentor. This contains the product of the students\u27 research

Bayesian participatory-based decision analysis : an evolutionary, adaptive formalism for integrated analysis of complex challenges to social-ecological system sustainability

Includes bibliographical references (pages. 379-400).This dissertation responds to the need for integration between researchers and decision-makers who are dealing with complex social-ecological system sustainability and decision-making challenges. To this end, we propose a new approach, called Bayesian Participatory-based Decision Analysis (BPDA), which makes use of graphical causal maps and Bayesian networks to facilitate integration at the appropriate scales and levels of descriptions. The BPDA approach is not a predictive approach, but rather, caters for a wide range of future scenarios in anticipation of the need to adapt to unforeseeable changes as they occur. We argue that the graphical causal models and Bayesian networks constitute an evolutionary, adaptive formalism for integrating research and decision-making for sustainable development. The approach was implemented in a number of different interdisciplinary case studies that were concerned with social-ecological system scale challenges and problems, culminating in a study where the approach was implemented with decision-makers in Government. This dissertation introduces the BPDA approach, and shows how the approach helps identify critical cross-scale and cross-sector linkages and sensitivities, and addresses critical requirements for understanding system resilience and adaptive capacity

Beyond the R&D effects on innovation: the contribution of non-R&D activities to TFP growth in the EU

A significant part of the innovation efforts carried out across very heterogeneous economies in Europe is under the form of Non-R&D innovation activities. But the traditional macro approach to the determinants of TFP does not handle this issue appropiately. This paper has proposed and estimated an augmented macro-theoretical model to the determinants of total factor productivity (TFP) by jointly considering the effects of R&D endowments and the impact of Non-R&D innovation activities on …firms´ levels of productivity. The estimation of the model for a sample of EU26 countries covering the period 2004-2008 shows that the distinction between R&D and Non-R&D endowments really matters for a number of different issues. First, the results show a sizable differential impact of these endowments on TFP growth, being the impact of R&D twice as big as the impact of Non-R&D. Second, absorptive capacity is only linked to R&D endowments. And third, the two types of endowments cannot strictly been seen as complements at least for the case of countries with high R&D intensities or high Non-R&D intensities

Emergent Design

Explorations in Systems Phenomenology in Relation to Ontology, Hermeneutics and the Meta-dialectics of Design SYNOPSIS A Phenomenological Analysis of Emergent Design is performed based on the foundations of General Schemas Theory. The concept of Sign Engineering is explored in terms of Hermeneutics, Dialectics, and Ontology in order to define Emergent Systems and Metasystems Engineering based on the concept of Meta-dialectics. ABSTRACT Phenomenology, Ontology, Hermeneutics, and Dialectics will dominate our inquiry into the nature of the Emergent Design of the System and its inverse dual, the Meta-system. This is an speculative dissertation that attempts to produce a philosophical, mathematical, and theoretical view of the nature of Systems Engineering Design. Emergent System Design, i.e., the design of yet unheard of and/or hitherto non-existent Systems and Metasystems is the focus. This study is a frontal assault on the hard problem of explaining how Engineering produces new things, rather than a repetition or reordering of concepts that already exist. In this work the philosophies of E. Husserl, A. Gurwitsch, M. Heidegger, J. Derrida, G. Deleuze, A. Badiou, G. Hegel, I. Kant and other Continental Philosophers are brought to bear on different aspects of how new technological systems come into existence through the midwifery of Systems Engineering. Sign Engineering is singled out as the most important aspect of Systems Engineering. We will build on the work of Pieter Wisse and extend his theory of Sign Engineering to define Meta-dialectics in the form of Quadralectics and then Pentalectics. Along the way the various ontological levels of Being are explored in conjunction with the discovery that the Quadralectic is related to the possibility of design primarily at the Third Meta-level of Being, called Hyper Being. Design Process is dependent upon the emergent possibilities that appear in Hyper Being. Hyper Being, termed by Heidegger as Being (Being crossed-out) and termed by Derrida as Differance, also appears as the widest space within the Design Field at the third meta-level of Being and therefore provides the most leverage that is needed to produce emergent effects. Hyper Being is where possibilities appear within our worldview. Possibility is necessary for emergent events to occur. Hyper Being possibilities are extended by Wild Being propensities to allow the embodiment of new things. We discuss how this philosophical background relates to meta-methods such as the Gurevich Abstract State Machine and the Wisse Metapattern methods, as well as real-time architectural design methods as described in the Integral Software Engineering Methodology. One aim of this research is to find the foundation for extending the ISEM methodology to become a general purpose Systems Design Methodology. Our purpose is also to bring these philosophical considerations into the practical realm by examining P. Bourdieu’s ideas on the relationship between theoretical and practical reason and M. de Certeau’s ideas on practice. The relationship between design and implementation is seen in terms of the Set/Mass conceptual opposition. General Schemas Theory is used as a way of critiquing the dependence of Set based mathematics as a basis for Design. The dissertation delineates a new foundation for Systems Engineering as Emergent Engineering based on General Schemas Theory, and provides an advanced theory of Design based on the understanding of the meta-levels of Being, particularly focusing upon the relationship between Hyper Being and Wild Being in the context of Pure and Process Being