When Transformer models are more compositional than humans: The case of the depth charge illusion

State-of-the-art Transformer-based language models like GPT-3 are very good at generating syntactically well-formed and semantically plausible text. However, it is unclear to what extent these models encode the compositional rules of human language and to what extent their impressive performance is due to the use of relatively shallow heuristics, which have also been argued to be a factor in human language processing. One example is the so-called depth charge illusion, which occurs when a semantically complex, incongruous sentence like No head injury is too trivial to be ignored is assigned a plausible but not compositionally licensed meaning (Don't ignore head injuries, even if they appear to be trivial). I present an experiment that investigated how depth charge sentences are processed by Transformer models, which are free of many human performance bottlenecks. The results are mixed: Transformers do show evidence of non-compositionality in depth charge contexts, but also appear to be more compositional than humans in some respects

Building bridges: How to cope with the gap between today and tomorrow

The future results from what we do today, but also what we leave undone , no matter for what reasons. Many of our decisions ? especially those which concern the more distant future ? have far reaching consequences. These decisions must now, and in the future, be made in a turbulent environment both conciously and with regard to the consequences that our decisions and actions may have. Concerning European spatial perspectives, it is clear that progressing integration processes will lead to changed space-time structures. In this respect, inter-municipal and inter-regional competition for investment and employment are factors of central significance. While we will never have clear knowledge of the future, preventative thought is a prerequisite for preventative action. To recognize development early and then to assess and judge each chance and risk, is one of the best means of achieving success in the area of regional competition. Future orientation in organizations, as in planning processes, should be understood first as a process of structured communication. The basis of this is to take into consideration a large range of possible futures. Scenarios serve to prepare decisions; they don't replace decisions. Rather they make especially clear, what is sometimes forgotten or dispelled and what will remain unchanged no matter what facts arise: It befits to us to make decisions with reference to our normative goals - particularly when we cannot be completely sure of possible outcomes. We need more than ever a discussion on useful long-term models and effects of our actions, equally for towns and regions within Europe in the process of unification. This is also a form of bridge building, beyond steel and concrete, with at least the same consequences for integration as the icons of technical engineering, which, by bridging separations, enable understanding and change.

Center. Community. Change. 2015 Annual Report

Real change happens when communities most affected by injustice are organized and motivated. The powerful movements over the past year that brought us marriage equality, the fight for a $15 minimum wage, courageous voices in Congress calling for the expansion of Social Security, more and better jobs born out of innovative community-labor partnerships -- all of these took root at the grassroots. While grassroots organizations draw energy and power from their deep community ties, they don't necessarily intersect with others groups doing complementary work. That's where the Center for Community Change comes in. With staff and organizers around the country, we identify and connect the most creative, innovative and powerful models, providing them with resources, expertise, strategy, training and support to shape social movements and bring about meaningful change. With nearly 50 years of experience, CCC is a center for the community organizing field, building community and developing strong leaders, and changing policy, culture, and people's lives for the better. Though all the different facets of our work may seem complex, we can boil it down to one simple phrase: We do what it takes. This report includes examples of just that -- pushing the limits of what we thought possible to create the change we want to see. We highlight some of the wide-ranging work done by CCC and our 501(c)(4) sister organization, the Center for Community Change Action, with our extraordinary grassroots partners and national allies. This work is the foundation for our 2016 campaigns to marshal our communities' votes and raise our voices in vibrant movements for true democracy and a fair economy in which everyone can thrive and reach their full potential

The Epistemic Challenge to Longtermism

Longtermists claim that what we ought to do is mainly determined by how our actions might affect the very long-run future. A natural objection to longtermism is that these effects may be nearly impossible to predict -- perhaps so close to impossible that, despite the astronomical importance of the far future, the expected value of our present actions is mainly determined by near-term considerations. This paper aims to precisify and evaluate one version of this epistemic objection to longtermism. To that end, I develop two simple models for comparing "longtermist" and "neartermist" interventions, incorporating the idea that it is harder to make a predictable difference to the further future. These models yield mixed conclusions: if we simply aim to maximize expected value, and don't mind premising our choices on minuscule probabilities of astronomical payoffs, the case for longtermism looks robust. But on some prima facie plausible empirical worldviews, the expectational superiority of longtermist interventions depends heavily on these "Pascalian" probabilities. So the case for longtermism may depend either on plausible but non-obvious empirical claims or on a tolerance for Pascalian fanaticism

The Relationship of Loss, Mean Age of Air and the Distribution of CFCs to Stratospheric Circulation and Implications for Atmospheric Lifetimes

Man-made molecules called chlorofluorcarbons (CFCs) are broken apart in the stratosphere by high energy light, and the reactive chlorine gases that come from them cause the ozone hole. Since the ozone layer stops high energy light from reaching low altitudes, CFCs must be transported to high altitudes to be broken apart. The number of molecules per volume (the density) is much smaller at high altitudes than near the surface, and CFC molecules have a very small chance of reaching that altitude in any particular year. Many tons of CFCs were put into the atmosphere during the end of the last century, and it will take many years for all of them to be destroyed. Each CFC has an atmospheric lifetime that depends on the amount of energy required to break them apart. Two of the gases that were made the most are CFC13 and CF2C12. It takes more energy to break apart CF2C12 than CFC13, and its lifetime is about 100 years, nearly twice as long as the lifetime for CFC13. It is hard to figure out the lifetimes from surface measurements because we don't know exactly how much was released into the air each year. Atmospheric models are used to predict what will happen to ozone and other gases as the CFCs decrease and other gases like C02 continue to increase during the next century. CFC lifetimes are used to predict future concentrations and all assessment models use the predicted future concentrations. The models have different circulations and the amount of CFC lost according to the model may not match the loss that is expected according to the lifetime. In models the amount destroyed per year depends on how fast the model pushes air into the stratosphere and how much goes to high altitudes each year. This paper looks at the way the model circulation changes the lifetimes, and looks at measurements that tell us which model is more realistic. Some models do a good job reproducing the age-of-air, which tells us that these models are circulating the stratospheric air at the right speed. These same models also do a good job reproducing the amount of CFCs in the lower atmosphere where they were measured by instruments on NASA's ER-2, a research plane that flies in the lower stratosphere. The lifetime for CFC13 that is calculated using the models that do the best job matching the data is about 25% longer than most people thought. This paper shows that using these measurements to decide which models are more realistic helps us understand why their predictions are different from each other and also to decide which predictions are more likely

Determinants of Market Structure and the Airline Industry

The general economic determinants of market structure are outlined with special reference to the airline industry. Included are the following facets: absolute size of firms; distributions of firms by size; concentration; entry barriers; product and service differentiation; diversification; degrees of competition; vertical integration; market boundaries; and economies of scale. Also examined are the static and dynamic properties of market structure in terms of mergers, government policies, and economic growth conditions

Organisational Memetics?: Organisational Learning as a Selection Process

Companies are not only systems created and controlled by those who manage them but also self-organising entities that evolve through learning. Whereas an organism is a creation of natural replicators, genes, an organisation can be seen as a product of an alternative replicator, the meme or mental model, acting, like a gene, to preserve itself in an Evolutionary Stable System. The result is an organisation which self organises around a set of unspoken and unwritten rules and assumptions. Biological evolution is stimulated by environmental change and reproductive isolation; the process of punctuated equilibrium. Corporate innovation shows the same pattern. Innovations in products and processes occur in groups isolated from prevailing mental norms. Successful organic strains possess a genetic capability for adaptation. Organisations which wish to foster learning can develop an equivalent, mental capability. Unlike their biological counterparts they can exert conscious choice and puncture the memetic codes that seek to keep them stable; the mental models of individuals, and the strategies, paradigms and unwritten rules at the company level