Hybrid Advanced Optimization Methods with Evolutionary Computation Techniques in Energy Forecasting

More accurate and precise energy demand forecasts are required when energy decisions are made in a competitive environment. Particularly in the Big Data era, forecasting models are always based on a complex function combination, and energy data are always complicated. Examples include seasonality, cyclicity, fluctuation, dynamic nonlinearity, and so on. These forecasting models have resulted in an over-reliance on the use of informal judgment and higher expenses when lacking the ability to determine data characteristics and patterns. The hybridization of optimization methods and superior evolutionary algorithms can provide important improvements via good parameter determinations in the optimization process, which is of great assistance to actions taken by energy decision-makers. This book aimed to attract researchers with an interest in the research areas described above. Specifically, it sought contributions to the development of any hybrid optimization methods (e.g., quadratic programming techniques, chaotic mapping, fuzzy inference theory, quantum computing, etc.) with advanced algorithms (e.g., genetic algorithms, ant colony optimization, particle swarm optimization algorithm, etc.) that have superior capabilities over the traditional optimization approaches to overcome some embedded drawbacks, and the application of these advanced hybrid approaches to significantly improve forecasting accuracy

Early hospital mortality prediction using vital signals

Early hospital mortality prediction is critical as intensivists strive to make efficient medical decisions about the severely ill patients staying in intensive care units. As a result, various methods have been developed to address this problem based on clinical records. However, some of the laboratory test results are time-consuming and need to be processed. In this paper, we propose a novel method to predict mortality using features extracted from the heart signals of patients within the first hour of ICU admission. In order to predict the risk, quantitative features have been computed based on the heart rate signals of ICU patients. Each signal is described in terms of 12 statistical and signal-based features. The extracted features are fed into eight classifiers: decision tree, linear discriminant, logistic regression, support vector machine (SVM), random forest, boosted trees, Gaussian SVM, and K-nearest neighborhood (K-NN). To derive insight into the performance of the proposed method, several experiments have been conducted using the well-known clinical dataset named Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III). The experimental results demonstrate the capability of the proposed method in terms of precision, recall, F1-score, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The decision tree classifier satisfies both accuracy and interpretability better than the other classifiers, producing an F1-score and AUC equal to 0.91 and 0.93, respectively. It indicates that heart rate signals can be used for predicting mortality in patients in the ICU, achieving a comparable performance with existing predictions that rely on high dimensional features from clinical records which need to be processed and may contain missing information.Comment: 11 pages, 5 figures, preprint of accepted paper in IEEE&ACM CHASE 2018 and published in Smart Health journa

Soft Computing Techniques for Stock Market Prediction: A Literature Survey

Stock market trading is an unending investment exercise globally. It has potentials to generate high returns on investors’ investment. However, it is characterized by high risk of investment hence, having knowledge and ability to predict stock price or market movement is invaluable to investors in the stock market. Over the years, several soft computing techniques have been used to analyze various stock markets to retrieve knowledge to guide investors on when to buy or sell. This paper surveys over 100 published articles that focus on the application of soft computing techniques to forecast stock markets. The aim of this paper is to present a coherent of information on various soft computing techniques employed for stock market prediction. This research work will enable researchers in this field to know the current trend as well as help to inform their future research efforts. From the surveyed articles, it is evident that researchers have firmly focused on the development of hybrid prediction models and substantial work has also been done on the use of social media data for stock market prediction. It is also revealing that most studies have focused on the prediction of stock prices in emerging market

An Improved Binary Grey-Wolf Optimizer with Simulated Annealing for Feature Selection

This paper proposes improvements to the binary grey-wolf optimizer (BGWO) to solve the feature selection (FS) problem associated with high data dimensionality, irrelevant, noisy, and redundant data that will then allow machine learning algorithms to attain better classification/clustering accuracy in less training time. We propose three variants of BGWO in addition to the standard variant, applying different transfer functions to tackle the FS problem. Because BGWO generates continuous values and FS needs discrete values, a number of V-shaped, S-shaped, and U-shaped transfer functions were investigated for incorporation with BGWO to convert their continuous values to binary. After investigation, we note that the performance of BGWO is affected by the selection of the transfer function. Then, in the first variant, we look to reduce the local minima problem by integrating an exploration capability to update the position of the grey wolf randomly within the search space with a certain probability; this variant was abbreviated as IBGWO. Consequently, a novel mutation strategy is proposed to select a number of the worst grey wolves in the population which are updated toward the best solution and randomly within the search space based on a certain probability to determine if the update is either toward the best or randomly. The number of the worst grey wolf selected by this strategy is linearly increased with the iteration. Finally, this strategy is combined with IBGWO to produce the second variant of BGWO that was abbreviated as LIBGWO. In the last variant, simulated annealing (SA) was integrated with LIBGWO to search around the best-so-far solution at the end of each iteration in order to identify better solutions. The performance of the proposed variants was validated on 32 datasets taken from the UCI repository and compared with six wrapper feature selection methods. The experiments show the superiority of the proposed improved variants in producing better classification accuracy than the other selected wrapper feature selection algorithms

A QSAR classification model of skin sensitization potential based on improving binary crow search algorithm

Classifying of skin sensitization using the quantitative structure-activityrelationship (QSAR) model is important. Applying descriptor selection isessential to improve the performance of the classification task. Recently, abinary crow search algorithm (BCSA) was proposed, which has been successfully applied to solve variable selection. In this work, a new time-varyingtransfer function is proposed to improve the exploration and exploitation capability of the BCSA in selecting the most relevant descriptors in QSAR classification model with high classification accuracy and short computing time.The results demonstrated that the proposed method is reliable and can reasonably separate the compounds according to sensitizers or non-sensitizerswith high classification accuracy

A Survey of Feature Selection Strategies for DNA Microarray Classification

Classification tasks are difficult and challenging in the bioinformatics field, that used to predict or diagnose patients at an early stage of disease by utilizing DNA microarray technology. However, crucial characteristics of DNA microarray technology are a large number of features and small sample sizes, which means the technology confronts a "dimensional curse" in its classification tasks because of the high computational execution needed and the discovery of biomarkers difficult. To reduce the dimensionality of features to find the significant features that can employ feature selection algorithms and not affect the performance of classification tasks. Feature selection helps decrease computational time by removing irrelevant and redundant features from the data. The study aims to briefly survey popular feature selection methods for classifying DNA microarray technology, such as filters, wrappers, embedded, and hybrid approaches. Furthermore, this study describes the steps of the feature selection process used to accomplish classification tasks and their relationships to other components such as datasets, cross-validation, and classifier algorithms. In the case study, we chose four different methods of feature selection on two-DNA microarray datasets to evaluate and discuss their performances, namely classification accuracy, stability, and the subset size of selected features. Keywords: Brief survey; DNA microarray data; feature selection; filter methods; wrapper methods; embedded methods; and hybrid methods. DOI: 10.7176/CEIS/14-2-01 Publication date:March 31st 202

Enhanced grey wolf optimisation algorithm for feature selection in anomaly detection

Anomaly detection deals with identification of items that do not conform to an expected pattern or items present in a dataset. The performance of different mechanisms utilized to perform the anomaly detection depends heavily on the group of features used. Thus, not all features in the dataset can be used in the classification process since some features may lead to low performance of classifier. Feature selection (FS) is a good mechanism that minimises the dimension of high-dimensional datasets by deleting the irrelevant features. Modified Binary Grey Wolf Optimiser (MBGWO) is a modern metaheuristic algorithm that has successfully been used for FS for anomaly detection. However, the MBGWO has several issues in finding a good quality solution. Thus, this study proposes an enhanced binary grey wolf optimiser (EBGWO) algorithm for FS in anomaly detection to overcome the algorithm issues. The first modification enhances the initial population of the MBGWO using a heuristic based Ant Colony Optimisation algorithm. The second modification develops a new position update mechanism using the Bat Algorithm movement. The third modification improves the controlled parameter of the MBGWO algorithm using indicators from the search process to refine the solution. The EBGWO algorithm was evaluated on NSL-KDD and six (6) benchmark datasets from the University California Irvine (UCI) repository against ten (10) benchmark metaheuristic algorithms. Experimental results of the EBGWO algorithm on the NSL-KDD dataset in terms of number of selected features and classification accuracy are superior to other benchmark optimisation algorithms. Moreover, experiments on the six (6) UCI datasets showed that the EBGWO algorithm is superior to the benchmark algorithms in terms of classification accuracy and second best for the number of selected features. The proposed EBGWO algorithm can be used for FS in anomaly detection tasks that involve any dataset size from various application domains