7,999 research outputs found
The uncertainty of changepoints in time series
Analysis concerning time series exhibiting changepoints have predominantly
focused on detection and estimation. However, changepoint estimates such as their
number and location are subject to uncertainty which is often not captured explicitly,
or requires sampling long latent vectors in existing methods. This thesis proposes
efficient, flexible methodologies in quantifying the uncertainty of changepoints.
The core proposed methodology of this thesis models time series and changepoints
under a Hidden Markov Model framework. This methodology combines existing
work on exact changepoint distributions conditional on model parameters with
Sequential Monte Carlo samplers to account for parameter uncertainty. The combination
of the two provides posterior distributions of changepoint characteristics in
light of parameter uncertainty.
This thesis also presents a methodology in approximating the posterior of
the number of underlying states in a Hidden Markov Model. Consequently, model
selection for Hidden Markov Models is possible. This methodology employs the use
of Sequential Monte Carlo samplers, such that no additional computational costs
are incurred from the existing use of these samplers.
The final part of this thesis considers time series in the wavelet domain, as opposed
to the time domain. The motivation for this transformation is the occurrence
of autocovariance changepoints in time series. Time domain modelling approaches
are somewhat limited for such types of changes, with approximations often taking
place. The wavelet domain relaxes these modelling limitations, such that autocovariance
changepoints can be considered more readily. The proposed methodology
develops a joint density for multiple processes in the wavelet domain which can
then be embedded within a Hidden Markov Model framework. Quantifying the
uncertainty of autocovariance changepoints is thus possible.
These methodologies will be motivated by datasets from Econometrics, Neuroimaging
and Oceanography
A statistical multiresolution approach for face recognition using structural hidden Markov models
This paper introduces a novel methodology that combines the multiresolution feature of the discrete wavelet transform (DWT) with the local interactions of the facial structures expressed through the structural hidden Markov model (SHMM). A range of wavelet filters such as Haar, biorthogonal 9/7, and Coiflet, as well as Gabor, have been implemented in order to search for the best performance. SHMMs perform a thorough probabilistic analysis of any sequential pattern by revealing both its inner and outer structures simultaneously. Unlike traditional HMMs, the SHMMs do not perform the state conditional independence of the visible observation sequence assumption. This is achieved via the concept of local structures introduced by the SHMMs. Therefore, the long-range dependency problem inherent to traditional HMMs has been drastically reduced. SHMMs have not previously been applied to the problem of face identification. The results reported in this application have shown that SHMM outperforms the traditional hidden Markov model with a 73% increase in accuracy
3D medical volume segmentation using hybrid multiresolution statistical approaches
This article is available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund. Copyright © 2010 S AlZu’bi and A Amira.3D volume segmentation is the process of partitioning voxels into 3D regions (subvolumes) that represent meaningful physical entities which are more meaningful and easier to analyze and usable in future applications. Multiresolution Analysis (MRA) enables the preservation of an image according to certain levels of resolution or blurring. Because of multiresolution quality, wavelets have been deployed in image compression, denoising, and classification. This paper focuses on the implementation of efficient medical volume segmentation techniques. Multiresolution analysis including 3D wavelet and ridgelet has been used for feature extraction which can be modeled using Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) to segment the volume slices. A comparison study has been carried out to evaluate 2D and 3D techniques which reveals that 3D methodologies can accurately detect the Region Of Interest (ROI). Automatic segmentation has been achieved using HMMs where the ROI is detected accurately but suffers a long computation time for its calculations
Climate-informed stochastic hydrological modeling: Incorporating decadal-scale variability using paleo data
A hierarchical framework for incorporating modes of climate variability into stochastic simulations of hydrological data is developed, termed the climate-informed multi-time scale stochastic (CIMSS) framework. A case study on two catchments in eastern Australia illustrates this framework. To develop an identifiable model characterizing long-term variability for the first level of the hierarchy, paleoclimate proxies, and instrumental indices describing the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are analyzed. A new paleo IPO-PDO time series dating back 440 yr is produced, combining seven IPO-PDO paleo sources using an objective smoothing procedure to fit low-pass filters to individual records. The paleo data analysis indicates that wet/dry IPO-PDO states have a broad range of run lengths, with 90% between 3 and 33 yr and a mean of 15 yr. The Markov chain model, previously used to simulate oscillating wet/dry climate states, is found to underestimate the probability of wet/dry periods >5 yr, and is rejected in favor of a gamma distribution for simulating the run lengths of the wet/dry IPO-PDO states. For the second level of the hierarchy, a seasonal rainfall model is conditioned on the simulated IPO-PDO state. The model is able to replicate observed statistics such as seasonal and multiyear accumulated rainfall distributions and interannual autocorrelations. Mean seasonal rainfall in the IPO-PDO dry states is found to be 15%-28% lower than the wet state at the case study sites. In comparison, an annual lag-one autoregressive model is unable to adequately capture the observed rainfall distribution within separate IPO-PDO states. Copyright © 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.Benjamin J. Henley, Mark A. Thyer, George Kuczera and Stewart W. Frank
Climate-informed stochastic hydrological modeling: Incorporating decadal-scale variability using paleo data
A hierarchical framework for incorporating modes of climate variability into stochastic simulations of hydrological data is developed, termed the climate-informed multi-time scale stochastic (CIMSS) framework. A case study on two catchments in eastern Australia illustrates this framework. To develop an identifiable model characterizing long-term variability for the first level of the hierarchy, paleoclimate proxies, and instrumental indices describing the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are analyzed. A new paleo IPO-PDO time series dating back 440 yr is produced, combining seven IPO-PDO paleo sources using an objective smoothing procedure to fit low-pass filters to individual records. The paleo data analysis indicates that wet/dry IPO-PDO states have a broad range of run lengths, with 90% between 3 and 33 yr and a mean of 15 yr. The Markov chain model, previously used to simulate oscillating wet/dry climate states, is found to underestimate the probability of wet/dry periods >5 yr, and is rejected in favor of a gamma distribution for simulating the run lengths of the wet/dry IPO-PDO states. For the second level of the hierarchy, a seasonal rainfall model is conditioned on the simulated IPO-PDO state. The model is able to replicate observed statistics such as seasonal and multiyear accumulated rainfall distributions and interannual autocorrelations. Mean seasonal rainfall in the IPO-PDO dry states is found to be 15%-28% lower than the wet state at the case study sites. In comparison, an annual lag-one autoregressive model is unable to adequately capture the observed rainfall distribution within separate IPO-PDO states. Copyright © 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.Benjamin J. Henley, Mark A. Thyer, George Kuczera and Stewart W. Frank
Large Scale Variational Bayesian Inference for Structured Scale Mixture Models
Natural image statistics exhibit hierarchical dependencies across multiple
scales. Representing such prior knowledge in non-factorial latent tree models
can boost performance of image denoising, inpainting, deconvolution or
reconstruction substantially, beyond standard factorial "sparse" methodology.
We derive a large scale approximate Bayesian inference algorithm for linear
models with non-factorial (latent tree-structured) scale mixture priors.
Experimental results on a range of denoising and inpainting problems
demonstrate substantially improved performance compared to MAP estimation or to
inference with factorial priors.Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the 29th International Conference on
Machine Learning (ICML 2012
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