A hybrid neuro--wavelet predictor for QoS control and stability

For distributed systems to properly react to peaks of requests, their adaptation activities would benefit from the estimation of the amount of requests. This paper proposes a solution to produce a short-term forecast based on data characterising user behaviour of online services. We use \emph{wavelet analysis}, providing compression and denoising on the observed time series of the amount of past user requests; and a \emph{recurrent neural network} trained with observed data and designed so as to provide well-timed estimations of future requests. The said ensemble has the ability to predict the amount of future user requests with a root mean squared error below 0.06\%. Thanks to prediction, advance resource provision can be performed for the duration of a request peak and for just the right amount of resources, hence avoiding over-provisioning and associated costs. Moreover, reliable provision lets users enjoy a level of availability of services unaffected by load variations

Hierarchical Multi-resolution Mesh Networks for Brain Decoding

We propose a new framework, called Hierarchical Multi-resolution Mesh Networks (HMMNs), which establishes a set of brain networks at multiple time resolutions of fMRI signal to represent the underlying cognitive process. The suggested framework, first, decomposes the fMRI signal into various frequency subbands using wavelet transforms. Then, a brain network, called mesh network, is formed at each subband by ensembling a set of local meshes. The locality around each anatomic region is defined with respect to a neighborhood system based on functional connectivity. The arc weights of a mesh are estimated by ridge regression formed among the average region time series. In the final step, the adjacency matrices of mesh networks obtained at different subbands are ensembled for brain decoding under a hierarchical learning architecture, called, fuzzy stacked generalization (FSG). Our results on Human Connectome Project task-fMRI dataset reflect that the suggested HMMN model can successfully discriminate tasks by extracting complementary information obtained from mesh arc weights of multiple subbands. We study the topological properties of the mesh networks at different resolutions using the network measures, namely, node degree, node strength, betweenness centrality and global efficiency; and investigate the connectivity of anatomic regions, during a cognitive task. We observe significant variations among the network topologies obtained for different subbands. We, also, analyze the diversity properties of classifier ensemble, trained by the mesh networks in multiple subbands and observe that the classifiers in the ensemble collaborate with each other to fuse the complementary information freed at each subband. We conclude that the fMRI data, recorded during a cognitive task, embed diverse information across the anatomic regions at each resolution.Comment: 18 page

Hot-Moments of Soil CO2 Efflux in a Water-Limited Grassland

The metabolic activity of water-limited ecosystems is strongly linked to the timing and magnitude of precipitation pulses that can trigger disproportionately high (i.e., hot-moments) ecosystem CO2 fluxes. We analyzed over 2-years of continuous measurements of soil CO2 efflux (Fs) under vegetation (Fsveg) and at bare soil (Fsbare) in a water-limited grassland. The continuous wavelet transform was used to: (a) describe the temporal variability of Fs; (b) test the performance of empirical models ranging in complexity; and (c) identify hot-moments of Fs. We used partial wavelet coherence (PWC) analysis to test the temporal correlation between Fs with temperature and soil moisture. The PWC analysis provided evidence that soil moisture overshadows the influence of soil temperature for Fs in this water limited ecosystem. Precipitation pulses triggered hot-moments that increased Fsveg (up to 9000%) and Fsbare (up to 17,000%) with respect to pre-pulse rates. Highly parameterized empirical models (using support vector machine (SVM) or an 8-day moving window) are good approaches for representing the daily temporal variability of Fs, but SVM is a promising approach to represent high temporal variability of Fs (i.e., hourly estimates). Our results have implications for the representation of hot-moments of ecosystem CO2 fluxes in these globally distributed ecosystems