Methods for anticipating governance breakdown and violent conflict

In this paper, authors Sarah Bressan, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård, and Dominic Seefeldt present the evolution and state of the art of both quantitative forecasting and scenario-based foresight methods that can be applied to help prevent governance breakdown and violent conflict in Europe’s neighbourhood. In the quantitative section, they describe the different phases of conflict forecasting in political science and outline which methodological gaps EU-LISTCO’s quantitative sub-national prediction tool will address to forecast tipping points for violent conflict and governance breakdown. The qualitative section explains EU-LISTCO’s scenario-based foresight methodology for identifying potential tipping points. After comparing both approaches, the authors discuss opportunities for methodological advancements across the boundaries of quantitative forecasting and scenario-based foresight, as well as how they can inform the design of strategic policy options

Quantitative and Econometric Methodologies in the Study of Civil War

This chapter provides an overview of the quantitative study of civil war, focusing on the development of quantitative conflict studies, the basics of the quantitative method, the prominent sources of civil conflict data, and the strengths and weaknesses of using quantitative methods to analyse civil war

Online Dispute Resolution Through the Lens of Bargaining and Negotiation Theory: Toward an Integrated Model

[Excerpt] In this article we apply negotiation and bargaining theory to the analysis of online dispute resolution. Our principal objective is to develop testable hypotheses based on negotiation theory that can be used in ODR research. We have not conducted the research necessary to test the hypotheses we develop; however, in a later section of the article we suggest a possible methodology for doing so. There is a vast literature on negotiation and bargaining theory. For the purposes of this article, we realized at the outset that we could only use a small part of that literature in developing a model that might be suitable for empirical testing. We decided to use the behavioral theory of negotiation developed by Richard Walton and Robert McKersie, which was initially formulated in the 1960s. This theory has stood the test of time. Initially developed to explain union-management negotiations, it has proven useful in analyzing a wide variety of disputes and conflict situations. In constructing their theory, Walton and McKersie built on the contributions and work of many previous bargaining theorists including economists, sociologists, game theorists, and industrial relations scholars. In this article, we have incorporated a consideration of the foundations on which their theory was based. In the concluding section of the article we discuss briefly how other negotiation and bargaining theories might be applied to the analysis of ODR

The Technology of Terror: Accounting for the Strategic Use of Terrorism

To comprehend why a group would intentionally target civilians, we need to understand why other groups do not. In this chapter, we argue that disgruntled groups face three main choices when addressing their dissatisfaction: suffering a disadvantageous peace, engaging in unconventional warfare, or engaging in conventional warfare. We further disaggregate the choice of unconventional warfare into terrorism and guerrilla warfare. By focusing on asymmetrical aspects of the problem and the strategic interactions between the insurgent group, its complicit public, and the superior force of the state, we disentangle the technology of terror.

An Uncertain Destination: On the Development of Conflict Management Systems in U.S. Corporations

[Excerpt] Our survey and field research have led us to some tentative conclusions that do not conform to the conventional wisdom of our field. From its inception, ADR has been controversial. On the one hand, ADR has been embraced by a coterie of champions who have always believed that its advantages over litigation were so obvious and compelling it would only be a matter of time before ADR was adopted universally. These champions have also been missionaries, proselytizing their faith in all quarters and making numerous converts. Like all true believers, ADR champions cannot understand why others have not yet gotten the faith. On the other hand, there has always been a group of ADR opponents who believe ADR undercuts our system of justice and must be resisted. ADR champions believe in the inevitability of ADR, while ADR opponents believe the movement to ADR can be stopped and even reversed. On balance, we believe in ADR\u27s merits and share many of its champions\u27 convictions. Our research — which is based on the analytical model we present in this paper — suggests, however, that there is nothing inevitable about the ultimate triumph of ADR

ILR School Ph.D. Dissertations

Compiled by Susan LaCette.ILRSchoolPhD.pdf: 4022 downloads, before Oct. 1, 2020

21st Century Simulation: Exploiting High Performance Computing and Data Analysis

This paper identifies, defines, and analyzes the limitations imposed on Modeling and Simulation by outmoded paradigms in computer utilization and data analysis. The authors then discuss two emerging capabilities to overcome these limitations: High Performance Parallel Computing and Advanced Data Analysis. First, parallel computing, in supercomputers and Linux clusters, has proven effective by providing users an advantage in computing power. This has been characterized as a ten-year lead over the use of single-processor computers. Second, advanced data analysis techniques are both necessitated and enabled by this leap in computing power. JFCOM's JESPP project is one of the few simulation initiatives to effectively embrace these concepts. The challenges facing the defense analyst today have grown to include the need to consider operations among non-combatant populations, to focus on impacts to civilian infrastructure, to differentiate combatants from non-combatants, and to understand non-linear, asymmetric warfare. These requirements stretch both current computational techniques and data analysis methodologies. In this paper, documented examples and potential solutions will be advanced. The authors discuss the paths to successful implementation based on their experience. Reviewed technologies include parallel computing, cluster computing, grid computing, data logging, OpsResearch, database advances, data mining, evolutionary computing, genetic algorithms, and Monte Carlo sensitivity analyses. The modeling and simulation community has significant potential to provide more opportunities for training and analysis. Simulations must include increasingly sophisticated environments, better emulations of foes, and more realistic civilian populations. Overcoming the implementation challenges will produce dramatically better insights, for trainees and analysts. High Performance Parallel Computing and Advanced Data Analysis promise increased understanding of future vulnerabilities to help avoid unneeded mission failures and unacceptable personnel losses. The authors set forth road maps for rapid prototyping and adoption of advanced capabilities. They discuss the beneficial impact of embracing these technologies, as well as risk mitigation required to ensure success