Numerical Solutions of ODEs using Volterra Series

We propose a numerical approach for solving systems of nonautonomous ordinary di®erential equations under suitable assumptions. This approach is based on expansion of the solutions by Volterra series and allows to estimate the accuracy of the approximation. Also we can solve some ordinary di®erential equations for which the classical numerical methods fail

Inference for reaction networks using the Linear Noise Approximation

We consider inference for the reaction rates in discretely observed networks such as those found in models for systems biology, population ecology and epidemics. Most such networks are neither slow enough nor small enough for inference via the true state-dependent Markov jump process to be feasible. Typically, inference is conducted by approximating the dynamics through an ordinary differential equation (ODE), or a stochastic differential equation (SDE). The former ignores the stochasticity in the true model, and can lead to inaccurate inferences. The latter is more accurate but is harder to implement as the transition density of the SDE model is generally unknown. The Linear Noise Approximation (LNA) is a first order Taylor expansion of the approximating SDE about a deterministic solution and can be viewed as a compromise between the ODE and SDE models. It is a stochastic model, but discrete time transition probabilities for the LNA are available through the solution of a series of ordinary differential equations. We describe how a restarting LNA can be efficiently used to perform inference for a general class of reaction networks; evaluate the accuracy of such an approach; and show how and when this approach is either statistically or computationally more efficient than ODE or SDE methods. We apply the LNA to analyse Google Flu Trends data from the North and South Islands of New Zealand, and are able to obtain more accurate short-term forecasts of new flu cases than another recently proposed method, although at a greater computational cost

AReS and MaRS - Adversarial and MMD-Minimizing Regression for SDEs

Stochastic differential equations are an important modeling class in many disciplines. Consequently, there exist many methods relying on various discretization and numerical integration schemes. In this paper, we propose a novel, probabilistic model for estimating the drift and diffusion given noisy observations of the underlying stochastic system. Using state-of-the-art adversarial and moment matching inference techniques, we avoid the discretization schemes of classical approaches. This leads to significant improvements in parameter accuracy and robustness given random initial guesses. On four established benchmark systems, we compare the performance of our algorithms to state-of-the-art solutions based on extended Kalman filtering and Gaussian processes.Comment: Published at the Thirty-sixth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2019

Status of the differential transformation method

Further to a recent controversy on whether the differential transformation method (DTM) for solving a differential equation is purely and solely the traditional Taylor series method, it is emphasized that the DTM is currently used, often only, as a technique for (analytically) calculating the power series of the solution (in terms of the initial value parameters). Sometimes, a piecewise analytic continuation process is implemented either in a numerical routine (e.g., within a shooting method) or in a semi-analytical procedure (e.g., to solve a boundary value problem). Emphasized also is the fact that, at the time of its invention, the currently-used basic ingredients of the DTM (that transform a differential equation into a difference equation of same order that is iteratively solvable) were already known for a long time by the "traditional"-Taylor-method users (notably in the elaboration of software packages --numerical routines-- for automatically solving ordinary differential equations). At now, the defenders of the DTM still ignore the, though much better developed, studies of the "traditional"-Taylor-method users who, in turn, seem to ignore similarly the existence of the DTM. The DTM has been given an apparent strong formalization (set on the same footing as the Fourier, Laplace or Mellin transformations). Though often used trivially, it is easily attainable and easily adaptable to different kinds of differentiation procedures. That has made it very attractive. Hence applications to various problems of the Taylor method, and more generally of the power series method (including noninteger powers) has been sketched. It seems that its potential has not been exploited as it could be. After a discussion on the reasons of the "misunderstandings" which have caused the controversy, the preceding topics are concretely illustrated.Comment: To appear in Applied Mathematics and Computation, 29 pages, references and further considerations adde