Three essays on the use of neural networks for financial prediction

The number of studies trying to explain the causes and consequences of the economic and financial crises usually rises considerably after a banking crisis occurs. The dramatic effects of the most recent financial crisis on the real economy around the world call for a better comprehension of previous crises as a way to anticipate future crisis episodes. It is precisely this objective, preventing future crises, the main motivation of this PhD dissertation. We identify two important mechanisms that have failed during the latest years and that are closely related to the onset of the financial crisis: The assessment of the solvency of banks along with the systemic risk over the time, and the detection of the macroeconomic imbalances in some countries, especially in Europe, which made the financial crisis evolve through a sovereign crisis. Our dissertation is made up of three different essays, trying to go a step ahead in the knowledge of these mechanisms.Departamento de Economía Financiera y ContabilidadDoctorado en Economía de la Empres

Forecasting Financial Distress With Machine Learning – A Review

Purpose – Evaluate the various academic researches with multiple views on credit risk and artificial intelligence (AI) and their evolution.Theoretical framework – The study is divided as follows: Section 1 introduces the article. Section 2 deals with credit risk and its relationship with computational models and techniques. Section 3 presents the methodology. Section 4 addresses a discussion of the results and challenges on the topic. Finally, section 5 presents the conclusions.Design/methodology/approach – A systematic review of the literature was carried out without defining the time period and using the Web of Science and Scopus database.Findings – The application of computational technology in the scope of credit risk analysis has drawn attention in a unique way. It was found that the demand for identification and introduction of new variables, classifiers and more assertive methods is constant. The effort to improve the interpretation of data and models is intense.Research, Practical & Social implications – It contributes to the verification of the theory, providing information in relation to the most used methods and techniques, it brings a wide analysis to deepen the knowledge of the factors and variables on the theme. It categorizes the lines of research and provides a summary of the literature, which serves as a reference, in addition to suggesting future research.Originality/value – Research in the area of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning is recent and requires attention and investigation, thus, this study contributes to the opening of new views in order to deepen the work on this topic

An academic review: applications of data mining techniques in finance industry

With the development of Internet techniques, data volumes are doubling every two years, faster than predicted by Moore’s Law. Big Data Analytics becomes particularly important for enterprise business. Modern computational technologies will provide effective tools to help understand hugely accumulated data and leverage this information to get insights into the finance industry. In order to get actionable insights into the business, data has become most valuable asset of financial organisations, as there are no physical products in finance industry to manufacture. This is where data mining techniques come to their rescue by allowing access to the right information at the right time. These techniques are used by the finance industry in various areas such as fraud detection, intelligent forecasting, credit rating, loan management, customer profiling, money laundering, marketing and prediction of price movements to name a few. This work aims to survey the research on data mining techniques applied to the finance industry from 2010 to 2015.The review finds that Stock prediction and Credit rating have received most attention of researchers, compared to Loan prediction, Money Laundering and Time Series prediction. Due to the dynamics, uncertainty and variety of data, nonlinear mapping techniques have been deeply studied than linear techniques. Also it has been proved that hybrid methods are more accurate in prediction, closely followed by Neural Network technique. This survey could provide a clue of applications of data mining techniques for finance industry, and a summary of methodologies for researchers in this area. Especially, it could provide a good vision of Data Mining Techniques in computational finance for beginners who want to work in the field of computational finance

DATA ANALYTICS FOR CRISIS MANAGEMENT: A CASE STUDY OF SHARING ECONOMY SERVICES IN THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

This dissertation study aims to analyze the role of data-driven decision-making in sharing economy during the COVID-19 pandemic as a crisis management tool. In the twenty-first century, when applying analytical tools has become an essential component of business decision-making, including operations on crisis management, data analytics is an emerging field. To carry out corporate strategies, data-driven decision-making is seen as a crucial component of business operations. Data analytics can be applied to benefit-cost evaluations, strategy planning, client engagement, and service quality. Data forecasting can also be used to keep an eye on business operations and foresee potential risks. Risk Management and planning are essential for allocating the necessary resources with minimal cost and time and to be ready for a crisis. Hidden market trends and customer preferences can help companies make knowledgeable business decisions during crises and recessions. Each company should manage operations and response during emergencies, a path to recovery, and prepare for future similar events with appropriate data management tools. Sharing economy is part of social commerce, that brings together individuals who have underused assets and who want to rent those assets short-term. COVID-19 has emphasized the need for digital transformation. Since the pandemic began, the sharing economy has been facing challenges, while market demand dropped significantly. Shelter-in-Place and Stay-at-Home orders changed the way of offering such sharing services. Stricter safety procedures and the need for a strong balance sheet are the key take points to surviving during this difficult health crisis. Predictive analytics and peer-reviewed articles are used to assess the pandemic\u27s effects. The approaches chosen to assess the research objectives and the research questions are the predictive financial performance of Uber & Airbnb, bibliographic coupling, and keyword occurrence analyses of peer-reviewed works about the influence of data analytics on the sharing economy. The VOSViewer Bibliometric software program is utilized for computing bibliometric analysis, RapidMiner Predictive Data Analytics for computing data analytics, and LucidChart for visualizing data

A Comprehensive Survey on Enterprise Financial Risk Analysis: Problems, Methods, Spotlights and Applications

Enterprise financial risk analysis aims at predicting the enterprises' future financial risk.Due to the wide application, enterprise financial risk analysis has always been a core research issue in finance. Although there are already some valuable and impressive surveys on risk management, these surveys introduce approaches in a relatively isolated way and lack the recent advances in enterprise financial risk analysis. Due to the rapid expansion of the enterprise financial risk analysis, especially from the computer science and big data perspective, it is both necessary and challenging to comprehensively review the relevant studies. This survey attempts to connect and systematize the existing enterprise financial risk researches, as well as to summarize and interpret the mechanisms and the strategies of enterprise financial risk analysis in a comprehensive way, which may help readers have a better understanding of the current research status and ideas. This paper provides a systematic literature review of over 300 articles published on enterprise risk analysis modelling over a 50-year period, 1968 to 2022. We first introduce the formal definition of enterprise risk as well as the related concepts. Then, we categorized the representative works in terms of risk type and summarized the three aspects of risk analysis. Finally, we compared the analysis methods used to model the enterprise financial risk. Our goal is to clarify current cutting-edge research and its possible future directions to model enterprise risk, aiming to fully understand the mechanisms of enterprise risk communication and influence and its application on corporate governance, financial institution and government regulation

Data Analytics for Crisis Management: A Case Study of Sharing Economy Services in the COVID-19 Pandemic

This dissertation study aims to analyze the role of data-driven decision-making in sharing economy during the COVID-19 pandemic as a crisis management tool. In the twenty-first century, when applying analytical tools has become an essential component of business decision-making, including operations on crisis management, data analytics is an emerging field. To carry out corporate strategies, data-driven decision-making is seen as a crucial component of business operations. Data analytics can be applied to benefit-cost evaluations, strategy planning, client engagement, and service quality. Data forecasting can also be used to keep an eye on business operations and foresee potential risks. Risk Management and planning are essential for allocating the necessary resources with minimal cost and time and to be ready for a crisis. Hidden market trends and customer preferences can help companies make knowledgeable business decisions during crises and recessions. Each company should manage operations and response during emergencies, a path to recovery, and prepare for future similar events with appropriate data management tools. Sharing economy is part of social commerce, that brings together individuals who have underused assets and who want to rent those assets short-term. COVID-19 has emphasized the need for digital transformation. Since the pandemic began, the sharing economy has been facing challenges, while market demand dropped significantly. Shelter-in-Place and Stay-at-Home orders changed the way of offering such sharing services. Stricter safety procedures and the need for a strong balance sheet are the key take points to surviving during this difficult health crisis. Predictive analytics and peer-reviewed articles are used to assess the pandemic\u27s effects. The approaches chosen to assess the research objectives and the research questions are the predictive financial performance of Uber & Airbnb, bibliographic coupling, and keyword occurrence analyses of peer-reviewed works about the influence of data analytics on the sharing economy. The VOSViewer Bibliometric software program is utilized for computing bibliometric analysis, RapidMiner Predictive Data Analytics for computing data analytics, and LucidChart for visualizing data

Power system security boundary visualization using intelligent techniques

In the open access environment, one of the challenges for utilities is that typical operating conditions tend to be much closer to security boundaries. Consequently, security levels for the transmission network must be accurately assessed and easily identified on-line by system operators;Security assessment through boundary visualization provides the operator with knowledge of system security levels in terms of easily monitorable pre-contingency operating parameters. The traditional boundary visualization approach results in a two-dimensional graph called a nomogram. However, an intensive labor involvement, inaccurate boundary representation, and little flexibility in integrating with the energy management system greatly restrict use of nomograms under competitive utility environment. Motivated by the new operating environment and based on the traditional nomogram development procedure, an automatic security boundary visualization methodology has been developed using neural networks with feature selection. This methodology provides a new security assessment tool for power system operations;The main steps for this methodology include data generation, feature selection, neural network training, and boundary visualization. In data generation, a systematic approach to data generation has been developed to generate high quality data. Several data analysis techniques have been used to analyze the data before neural network training. In feature selection, genetic algorithm based methods have been used to select the most predicative precontingency operating parameters. Following neural network training, a confidence interval calculation method to measure the neural network output reliability has been derived. Sensitivity analysis of the neural network output with respect to input parameters has also been derived. In boundary visualization, a composite security boundary visualization algorithm has been proposed to present accurate boundaries in two dimensional diagrams to operators for any type of security problem;This methodology has been applied to thermal overload, voltage instability problems for a sample system