Sub-daily simulation of mountain flood processes based on the modified soil water assessment tool (SWAT) model

Floods not only provide a large amount of water resources, but they also cause serious disasters. Although there have been numerous hydrological studies on flood processes, most of these investigations were based on rainfall-type floods in plain areas. Few studies have examined high temporal resolution snowmelt floods in high-altitude mountainous areas. The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is a typical semi-distributed, hydrological model widely used in runoff and water quality simulations. The degree-day factor method used in SWAT utilizes only the average daily temperature as the criterion of snow melting and ignores the influence of accumulated temperature. Therefore, the influence of accumulated temperature on snowmelt was added by increasing the discriminating conditions of rain and snow, making that more suitable for the simulation of snowmelt processes in high-altitude mountainous areas. On the basis of the daily scale, the simulation of the flood process was modeled on an hourly scale. This research compared the results before and after the modification and revealed that the peak error decreased by 77% and the time error was reduced from +/- 11 h to +/- 1 h. This study provides an important reference for flood simulation and forecasting in mountainous areas

Using isotopes to constrain water flux and age estimates in snow-influenced catchments using the STARR (Spatially distributed Tracer-Aided Rainfall-Runoff) model

Acknowledgements. This work was funded by the NERC/JPI SIWA project (NE/M019896/1) and the European Research Council ERC (project GA 335910 VeWa). Numerical simulations were performed using the Maxwell High Performance Computing Cluster of the University of Aberdeen IT Service, provided by Dell Inc. and supported by Alces Software. The isotope work in Krycklan is funded by the KAW Branch-Point project together with SKB and SITES. We would like to thank Marjolein van Hui- jgevoort for her help with the STARR code, and Masaki Hayashi and two anonymous reviewers for their insightful suggestions that significantly improved the paper. The Supplement related to this article is available online at https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-5089-2017-supplement.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Inclusion of modified snow melting and flood processes in the SWAT model

Flooding, one of the most serious natural disasters, poses a significant threat to people's lives and property. At present, the forecasting method uses simple snowmelt accumulation and has certain regional restrictions that limit the accuracy and timeliness of flood simulation and prediction. In this paper, the influence of accumulated temperature (AT) and maximum temperature (MT) on snow melting was considered in order to (1) reclassify the precipitation categories of the watershed using a separation algorithm of rain and snow that incorporates AT and MT, and (2) develop a new snow-melting process utilizing the algorithm in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool Model (SWAT) by considering the effects of AT and MT. The SWAT model was used to simulate snowmelt and flooding in the Tizinafu River Basin (TRB). We found that the modified SWAT model increased the value of the average flood peak flow by 43%, the snowmelt amounts increased by 45%, and the contribution of snowmelt to runoff increased from 44.7% to 54.07%. In comparison, we concluded the snowmelt contribution to runoff, flood peak performance, flood process simulation, model accuracy, and time accuracy. The new method provides a more accurate simulation technique for snowmelt floods and flood simulation

Simulations of snow distribution and hydrology in a mountain basin

We applied a version of the Regional Hydro‐Ecologic Simulation System (RHESSys) that implements snow redistribution, elevation partitioning, and wind‐driven sublimation to Loch Vale Watershed (LVWS), an alpine‐subalpine Rocky Mountain catchment where snow accumulation and ablation dominate the hydrologic cycle. We compared simulated discharge to measured discharge and the simulated snow distribution to photogrammetrically rectified aerial (remotely sensed) images. Snow redistribution was governed by a topographic similarity index. We subdivided each hillslope into elevation bands that had homogeneous climate extrapolated from observed climate. We created a distributed wind speed field that was used in conjunction with daily measured wind speeds to estimate sublimation. Modeling snow redistribution was critical to estimating the timing and magnitude of discharge. Incorporating elevation partitioning improved estimated timing of discharge but did not improve patterns of snow cover since wind was the dominant controller of areal snow patterns. Simulating wind‐driven sublimation was necessary to predict moisture losses

Accurate simulation of ice and snow runoff for the mountainous terrain of the Kunlun Mountains, China

While mountain runoff provides great potential for the development and life quality of downstream populations, it also frequently causes seasonal disasters. The accurate modeling of hydrological processes in mountainous areas, as well as the amount of meltwater from ice and snow, is of great significance for the local sustainable development, hydropower regulations, and disaster prevention. In this study, an improved model, the Soil Water Assessment Tool with added ice-melt module (SWATAI) was developed based on the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a semi-distributed hydrological model, to simulate ice and snow runoff. A temperature condition used to determine precipitation types has been added in the SWATAI model, along with an elevation threshold and an accumulative daily temperature threshold for ice melt, making it more consistent with the runoff process of ice and snow. As a supplementary reference, the comparison between the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the quantity of meltwater were conducted to verify the simulation results and assess the impact of meltwater on the ecology. Through these modifications, the accuracy of the daily flow simulation results has been considerably improved, and the contribution rate of ice and snow melt to the river discharge calculated by the model increased by 18.73%. The simulation comparison of the flooding process revealed that the accuracy of the simulated peak flood value by the SWATAI was 77.65% higher than that of the SWAT, and the temporal accuracy was 82.93% higher. The correlation between the meltwater calculated by the SWATAI and the NDVI has also improved significantly. This improved model could simulate the flooding processes with high temporal resolution in alpine regions. The simulation results could provide technical support for economic benefits and reasonable reference for flood prevention

Mechanisms Of Cold Region Hydrologic Changes To Recent Wetting In A Terminal Lake Basin

The recent changes in hydroclimatic conditions in the Northern Great Plains (NGP) have led to an increase in precipitation and wetland connectivity over the last few decades. The most recent wet period started at 2005 after the last NGP drought (1999-2004). The current wetting is expected to continue and could potentially last into 2038 and beyond. The increases in precipitation during the recent wet period yield an integrated response resulting in hydrologic changes in the NGP. However, the underlying mechanism of the hydrologic changes caused by recent wetting is poorly understood requiring a physically-based modeling framework in order to decipher them. This study utilized a field-tested and physically-based cold region hydrologic model (CRHM) to investigate the impacts of elevated precipitation on recent hydrologic changes by examining the intermediate processes during the 2004-17 period. CRHM is designed for cold regions and has modules to simulate processes, such as blowing snow transport, sublimation, interception, frozen soil infiltration, snowmelt, and subsequent streamflow generation. The modeling of the current study focuses on a tributary basin of the Devils Lake Basin (DLB) known as the Mauvais Coulee Basin (MCB). Since there were very few snow observations in the MCB, a detailed snow survey was conducted at distributed locations estimating snow depth, density, and snow water equivalent (SWE) using a prairie snow tube four times during winter of 2016-17. The MCB model was evaluated against distributed snow observations and streamflow measured at the basin outlet (USGS) for the year 2016-17. Overall, the simulated snow water equivalents (SWEs) at distributed locations and streamflow are in good agreement with observations. The simulated SWE maps exhibit large spatiotemporal variation during the winter of 2016-17 due to spatial variability in precipitation, snow redistribution from stubble fields to wooded areas, and snow accumulations in small depressions across the sub-basins. The main source of snow appears to be the hills and ridges of the eastern and western edges of the basin, while the main sink is the large flat central valleys. Snowmelt was the primary contributor to annual streamflow with a varying contribution from rain-on-snow (ROS). Detailed diagnosis of simulations identified two phases (pre- and post-2011) exhibiting different cold region hydrologic responses. During the pre-2011 period, the MCB system was dominated by both streamflow and evapotranspiration (ET) while there was extreme ET dominance with very minor influence from streamflow in the post-2011 period. This switch was caused primarily by climatic conditions involving spring/summer rainfall and daytime overcast conditions. Both snowmelt and ROS contributed to annual streamflow in the pre-2011 period while only snowmelt was the prime contributor in the post-2011 period except in 2013. Frozen soil and basal ice conditions during the spring period played a significant role for generating streamflow within the pre-, during, and post-2011 period

Snow hyydrology of Canadian prairie droughts : model development and application

Hydrological models have been developed to estimate snow accumulation, snowmelt and snowmelt runoff on the Canadian Prairies; however, their proper scale of application is unknown in the Prairie environment. The first objective of this thesis is to examine the proper scale for pre-melt snow accumulation as snow water equivalent (SWE) and snowmelt in a Prairie first order basin. Spatially distributed and spatially aggregated approaches were used to calculate SWE and snowmelt at St. Denis National Wildlife Area (SDNWA). Both approaches used models with similar physics, but differed in the model scale at which calculations were carried out. The simulated pre-melt SWE, cumulative seasonal SWE, and daily snowmelt from the two modelling approaches were compared to field observations of pre-melt SWE, cumulative seasonal SWE, and daily snowmelt; comparisons of areal cumulative seasonal SWE, areal snowmelt, snowmelt duration, and snow-covered area were also conducted between two modelling approaches. Results from these comparisons showed that both approaches had reasonable and similar accuracy in estimation of SWE and snowmelt. The spatially aggregated approach was more computationally efficient and was selected as a modelling scale for small-sized prairie basins. Another objective of this thesis is to derive a snow hydrology model for the Canadian Prairies. Physically-based hydrological models were assembled in the Cold Regions Hydrological Model Platform (CRHM) using the aggregated approach. Tests of pre-melt SWE and surface snowmelt runoff were conducted at two basins in Saskatchewan – Creighton Tributary of Bad Lake and Wetland 109, St. Denis. Results showed that the snow hydrology model had a reasonable capability to simulate SWE and snowmelt runoff to the stream and wetland. Droughts are natural hazards that develop frequently on the Canadian Prairies. Analyzing the impact of drought on hydrological processes and water supply is another objective of this thesis. Synthetic drought scenarios were proposed for the Creighton Tributary of Bad Lake and the corresponding impacts on the snowmelt runoff-related processes were examined. Results indicated that wind redistribution of snow was very sensitive to drought conditions, sublimation of blowing snow and snow-covered period were sensitive to drought, but winter evaporation and infiltration did not show strong trend. The results also showed that drought conditions had magnified effects on the snowmelt runoff and could cause cessation of streamflow. Also, the impacts of the recent 1999-2005 drought on the snowmelt hydrology were investigated at St. Denis. Results illustrated that three-years (1999-2002) of severe winter drought were followed by a normal year (2002-03) and then a two-year (2003-05) recovery period, and then returning to normal (2005-06). Results showed that both snowfall and rainfall during hydrological winter were consistently low for severe drought and surface snowmelt runoff was very much lower during severe drought, about 45-65 mm less compared to that in the normal periods

Implications of Climate-Driven Variability and Trends for the Hydrologic Assessment of the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed, Idaho

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to assess the implications of long-term climate trends for the hydroclimatology of the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed (RCEW) in the Owyhee Mountains, Idaho of the Intermountain West over a 40- year period (1967-2006). Calibration and validation of the macroscale hydrology model in this highly monitored watershed is key to address the watershed processes that are vulnerable to both natural climate variability and climate change and . The model was calibrated using the streamflow data collected between 1997 and 2006 from the three nested weirs, the Reynolds Mountain East (RME) , Tollgate and Outlet. For assessing the performance of the calibrated model, this study used 30 years of streamflow data for the period between 1966 and 1996. This investigation suggested that the model predicted streamflow was best at RME, and inadequate at Outlet. Simulated soil moisture was also verified using the data available from five soil moisture measurement sites. The model was able to capture the seasonal patterns of changes in soil water storage considering the differences in the spatial extent of the observed and predicted soil water storage (point measurements against the spatially averaged values for the HRU) and uncertainty associated with the soil moisture measurements due to instrument effects. Water budget partitioning during a wet (1984) water year and a dry (1987) water year were also analyzed to characterize the differences in hydrologic cycles during the extreme hydrologic conditions. Our analysis showed that in the dry water year , vegetation at the higher elevation were under water stress by the end of the water year. Contrastingly, in the wet water year only the vegetation at low and mid elevations were under water stress whereas vegetation at the at the higher elevations derived substantial soil moisture for ET processes even towards the end of the growing season. To understand the effect of climate change on the hydrologic cycle, the observed and simulated streamflow were analyzed for trends in Center of Timing (CT). Earlier CT timings for the simulated and observed streamflow at RME weir was obvious thus manifesting global warming signals at the watershed scale level in the Intermountain west region. Observed streamflow at the Tollgate and Outlet weirs, where streamflow is partially affected by the agricultural diversions, showed later CT timings and these results appeared to suggest that climate impact assessment studies need to carefully distinguish the system behavior that is altered by both natural and human-induced changes

Hydrological response unit-based blowing snow modelling over mountainous terrain

Wind transport and sublimation of snow particles are common phenomena across high altitude and latitude cold regions and play important roles in hydrological and atmospheric water and energy budgets. In spite of this, blowing snow processes have not been incorporated in many mesoscale hydrological models and land surface schemes. A physically based blowing snow model, the Prairie Blowing Snow Model (PBSM), initially developed for prairie environments was used to model snow redistribution and sublimation by wind over two sites representative of mountainous regions in Canada: Fisera Ridge in the Rocky Mountain Front Ranges in Alberta, and Granger Basin in the Yukon Territory. Two models were used to run PBSM: the object-oriented hydrological model, Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling Platform (CRHM) and Environment Canada’s hydrological-land surface scheme, Modélisation Environmentale Communautaire – Surface and Hydrology (MESH). PBSM was coupled with the snowcover energy and mass-balance model (SNOBAL) within CRHM. Blowing snow algorithms were also incorporated into MESH to create MESH-PBSM. CRHM, MESH and MESH-PBSM were used to simulate the evolution of snowcover in hydrological response units (HRUs) over both Fisera Ridge and Granger Basin. To test the models of blowing snow redistribution and ablation over a relatively simple sequence of mountain topography, simulations were run from north to south over a linear ridge in the Canadian Rocky Mountains. Fisera Ridge snowcover simulations with CRHM were performed over two winters using two sets of wind speed forcing: (1) station observed wind speed, and (2) modelled wind speed from a widely applied empirical, terrain-based windflow model. Best results were obtained when using the site meteorological station wind speed data. The windflow model performed poorly when comparing the magnitude of modelled and observed wind speeds. Blowing snow sublimation, snowmelt and snowpack sublimation quantities were considerably overestimated when using the modelled wind speeds. As a result, end-of-winter snow accumulation was considerably underestimated on windswept HRUs. MESH and MESH-PBSM were also used to simulate snow accumulation and redistribution over these same HRUs. MESH-PBSM adequately simulated snow accumulation in the HRUs up until the spring snowmelt period. MESH without PBSM performed less well and overestimated accumulation on windward slopes and the ridge top whilst underestimating accumulation on lee slopes. Simulations in spring were degraded by a large overestimation of melt by MESH. The early and overestimated melt warrants a detailed examination that is outside the scope of this thesis. To parameterize snow redistribution in a mountain alpine basin, snow redistribution and sublimation by wind were calculated for three winters over Granger Basin using CRHM. Snow transport fluxes were distributed amongst HRUs using inter-HRU snow redistribution allocation factors. Three snow redistribution schemes of varying complexity were evaluated. CRHM model results showed that end-of-winter snow accumulation can be most accurately simulated when the inter-HRU snow redistribution schemes take into account wind direction and speed and HRU aerodynamic characteristics, along with the spatial arrangement of HRUs in the catchment. As snow transport scales approximately with the fourth power of wind speed (u4), inter-HRU snow redistribution allocation factors can be established according to the predominant u4 direction over a simulation period or can change at each time step according to an input measured wind direction. MESH and MESH-PBSM were used to simulate snow accumulation and ablation over these same HRUs. MESH-PBSM provided markedly better results than MESH without blowing snow algorithms. That snow redistribution by wind can be adequately simulated in computationally efficient HRUs over mountainous terrain has important implications for representing snow transport in large-scale hydrology models and land surface schemes. Snow redistribution by wind caused mountain snow accumulation to vary from 10% to 161% of seasonal snowfall within a headwater catchment in the Canadian Rocky Mountains, and blowing snow sublimation losses ranged from 10 to 37% of seasonal snowfall

Sensitivity Analysis of Mountain Hydrology to Changing Climate

Understanding the sensitivity of hydrological processes to climate change in snow-covered mountains is important for water and energy security. The objectives of this study are: (i) to quantify the sensitivity of simulated mountain hydrological processes to changes in air temperature and precipitation; (ii) to document the uncertainty in estimations of future mountain hydrological processes due to uncertainty in climate models; and (iii) to quantify the response of simulated mountain hydrology to climate change when there are transient changes in vegetation and soils. Three basins are selected for this research: Wolf Creek Research Basin (WCRB), Canada; Marmot Creek Research Basin (MCRB), Canada; and Reynolds Mountain East (RME) catchment, USA. A hydrological model for each basin was set up in the Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform (CRHM) and a climate perturbation sensitivity (CPS) analysis was conducted based on a series of annually perturbed climate (APC), monthly perturbed climate (MPC), and transient vegetation changes. Peak snow water equivalent (SWE), evapotranspiration, and annual runoff have a pronounced sensitivity to both warming and precipitation change in all three basins. The timing of snow regime is most sensitive to changes in temperature. The impacts of warming on alpine snow in WCRB and to lesser extent in MCRB can be offset by increases in precipitation. In response to MPC, modelled peak SWE decreases while evapotranspiration and total annual runoff increase. Annual runoff responds very strongly to precipitation increases in MCRB, to warming in RME, and to both precipitation increase and warming in WCRB. Warming increases rainfall fraction of precipitation, as all three snow-dominated basins become more rain-dominated and precipitation phase becomes latitudinally more similar. The impact of climate change is moderated by the impact of vegetation change on peak SWE timing, snow transport, evapotranspiration, and annual runoff. The hydrological uncertainty due to uncertainty in climate models is greater than the range of hydrological changes due to climate change for streamflow regimes in the three basins and snow regimes at high elevations and latitudes. The results of this research can be used to anticipate the hydrological impacts of climate and vegetation changes on mountain environments