Game Theory and Prescriptive Analytics for Naval Wargaming Battle Management Aids

NPS NRP Technical ReportThe Navy is taking advantage of advances in computational technologies and data analytic methods to automate and enhance tactical decisions and support warfighters in highly complex combat environments. Novel automated techniques offer opportunities to support the tactical warfighter through enhanced situational awareness, automated reasoning and problem-solving, and faster decision timelines. This study will investigate how game theory and prescriptive analytics methods can be used to develop real-time wargaming capabilities to support warfighters in their ability to explore and evaluate the possible consequences of different tactical COAs to improve tactical missions. This study will develop a conceptual design of a real-time tactical wargaming capability. This study will explore data analytic methods including game theory, prescriptive analytics, and artificial intelligence (AI) to evaluate their potential to support real-time wargaming.N2/N6 - Information WarfareThis research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

The Role of the Human Operator in the Third Offset Strategy

New gadgets are useful, but our personnel are the most critical component to continued operational success. The Third Offset Strategy provides a near-unique opportunity to leap forward in optimizing human performance. We must establish priorities, tangible deliverables, and a timeline

Conceptual Model of Visual Analytics for Hands-on Cybersecurity Training

Hands-on training is an effective way to practice theoretical cybersecurity concepts and increase participants’ skills. In this paper, we discuss the application of visual analytics principles to the design, execution, and evaluation of training sessions. We propose a conceptual model employing visual analytics that supports the sensemaking activities of users involved in various phases of the training life cycle. The model emerged from our long-term experience in designing and organizing diverse hands-on cybersecurity training sessions. It provides a classification of visualizations and can be used as a framework for developing novel visualization tools supporting phases of the training life-cycle. We demonstrate the model application on examples covering two types of cybersecurity training programs

Anomaly Detection Analysis with Graph-Based Cyber Threat Hunting Scheme

As advanced persistence threats become more prevalent and cyber-attacks become more severe, cyber defense analysts will be required to exert greater effort to protect their systems. A continuous defense mechanism is needed to ensure no incidents occur in the system, one of which is cyber threat hunting. To prove that cyber threat hunting is important, this research simulated a cyber-attack that has successfully entered the system but was not detected by the IDS device even though it already has relatively updated rules. Based on the simulation result, this research designed a data correlation model implemented in a graph visualization with enrichment on-demand features to help analysts conduct cyber threat hunting with graph visualization to detect cyber-attacks. The data correlation model developed in this research can overcome this gap and increase the percentage of detection that was originally undetected / 0% by IDS, to be detected by more than 45% and can even be assessed to be 100% detected based on the anomaly pattern that was successfully found

Cognitive Machine Individualism in a Symbiotic Cybersecurity Policy Framework for the Preservation of Internet of Things Integrity: A Quantitative Study

This quantitative study examined the complex nature of modern cyber threats to propose the establishment of cyber as an interdisciplinary field of public policy initiated through the creation of a symbiotic cybersecurity policy framework. For the public good (and maintaining ideological balance), there must be recognition that public policies are at a transition point where the digital public square is a tangible reality that is more than a collection of technological widgets. The academic contribution of this research project is the fusion of humanistic principles with Internet of Things (IoT) technologies that alters our perception of the machine from an instrument of human engineering into a thinking peer to elevate cyber from technical esoterism into an interdisciplinary field of public policy. The contribution to the US national cybersecurity policy body of knowledge is a unified policy framework (manifested in the symbiotic cybersecurity policy triad) that could transform cybersecurity policies from network-based to entity-based. A correlation archival data design was used with the frequency of malicious software attacks as the dependent variable and diversity of intrusion techniques as the independent variable for RQ1. For RQ2, the frequency of detection events was the dependent variable and diversity of intrusion techniques was the independent variable. Self-determination Theory is the theoretical framework as the cognitive machine can recognize, self-endorse, and maintain its own identity based on a sense of self-motivation that is progressively shaped by the machine’s ability to learn. The transformation of cyber policies from technical esoterism into an interdisciplinary field of public policy starts with the recognition that the cognitive machine is an independent consumer of, advisor into, and influenced by public policy theories, philosophical constructs, and societal initiatives

Impacts and Risk of Generative AI Technology on Cyber Defense

Generative Artificial Intelligence (GenAI) has emerged as a powerful technology capable of autonomously producing highly realistic content in various domains, such as text, images, audio, and videos. With its potential for positive applications in creative arts, content generation, virtual assistants, and data synthesis, GenAI has garnered significant attention and adoption. However, the increasing adoption of GenAI raises concerns about its potential misuse for crafting convincing phishing emails, generating disinformation through deepfake videos, and spreading misinformation via authentic-looking social media posts, posing a new set of challenges and risks in the realm of cybersecurity. To combat the threats posed by GenAI, we propose leveraging the Cyber Kill Chain (CKC) to understand the lifecycle of cyberattacks, as a foundational model for cyber defense. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the risk areas introduced by the offensive use of GenAI techniques in each phase of the CKC framework. We also analyze the strategies employed by threat actors and examine their utilization throughout different phases of the CKC, highlighting the implications for cyber defense. Additionally, we propose GenAI-enabled defense strategies that are both attack-aware and adaptive. These strategies encompass various techniques such as detection, deception, and adversarial training, among others, aiming to effectively mitigate the risks posed by GenAI-induced cyber threats

Considerations for Cross Domain / Mission Resource Allocation and Replanning

NPS NRP Technical ReportNaval platforms are inherently multi-mission - they execute a variety of missions simultaneously. Ships, submarines, and aircraft support multiple missions across domains, such as integrated air and missile defense, ballistic missile defense, anti-submarine warfare, strike operations, naval fires in support of ground operations, and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance. Scheduling and position of these multi-mission platforms is problematic since one warfare area commander desires one position and schedule, while another may have a completely different approach. Commanders struggle to decide and adjudicate these conflicts, because there is plenty of uncertainty about the enemy and the environment. This project will explore emerging innovative data analytic technologies to optimize naval resource allocation and replanning across mission domains. NPS proposes a study that will evaluate the following three solution concepts for this application: (1) game theory, (2) machine learning, and (3) wargaming. The study will first identify a set of operational scenarios that involve distributed and diverse naval platforms and resources and a threat situation that requires multiple concurrent missions in multiple domains. The NPS team will use these scenarios to evaluate the three solution concepts and their applicability to supporting resource allocation and replanning. This project will provide valuable insights into innovative data analytic solution concepts to tackle the Navy's challenge of conducing multiple missions with cross-domain resources.N2/N6 - Information WarfareThis research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

ErgoShip 2021 – Maritime artikler

Welcome to the special issue dedicated to the conference Ergoship 2021! The editorial committee are proud to present a selection of papers from Ergoship 2021 and a few invited papers within the topic of maritime Human Factors. The first Ergoshipwas held in Gothenburg in 2011 to create a meeting place for researchers in maritime Human Factors. The conference has lived on and was held in Australia 2016, in Haugesund 2019 and in South Korea 2021. We wish we could all have met in person, but this time it was not to be. Nevertheless, we look forward to sharing these papers with you and hope we can drive this field forward together. Enjoy the papers from a small but passionate group of contributors. The authors and the audience make this recurring conference special