Probabilistic models for mining imbalanced relational data

Most data mining and pattern recognition techniques are designed for learning from at data files with the assumption of equal populations per class. However, most real-world data are stored as rich relational databases that generally have imbalanced class distribution. For such domains, a rich relational technique is required to accurately model the different objects and relationships in the domain, which can not be easily represented as a set of simple attributes, and at the same time handle the imbalanced class problem.Motivated by the significance of mining imbalanced relational databases that represent the majority of real-world data, learning techniques for mining imbalanced relational domains are investigated. In this thesis, the employment of probabilistic models in mining relational databases is explored. In particular, the Probabilistic Relational Models (PRMs) that were proposed as an extension of the attribute-based Bayesian Networks. The effectiveness of PRMs in mining real-world databases was explored by learning PRMs from a real-world university relational database. A visual data mining tool is also proposed to aid the interpretation of the outcomes of the PRM learned models.Despite the effectiveness of PRMs in relational learning, the performance of PRMs as predictive models is significantly hindered by the imbalanced class problem. This is due to the fact that PRMs share the assumption common to other learning techniques of relatively balanced class distributions in the training data. Therefore, this thesis proposes a number of models utilizing the effectiveness of PRMs in relational learning and extending it for mining imbalanced relational domains.The first model introduced in this thesis examines the problem of mining imbalanced relational domains for a single two-class attribute. The model is proposed by enriching the PRM learning with the ensemble learning technique. The premise behind this model is that an ensemble of models would attain better performance than a single model, as misclassification committed by one of the models can be often correctly classified by others.Based on this approach, another model is introduced to address the problem of mining multiple imbalanced attributes, in which it is important to predict several attributes rather than a single one. In this model, the ensemble bagging sampling approach is exploited to attain a single model for mining several attributes. Finally, the thesis outlines the problem of imbalanced multi-class classification and introduces a generalized framework to handle this problem for both relational and non-relational domains

Using Random Forests to Describe Equity in Higher Education: A Critical Quantitative Analysis of Utah’s Postsecondary Pipelines

The following work examines the Random Forest (RF) algorithm as a tool for predicting student outcomes and interrogating the equity of postsecondary education pipelines. The RF model, created using longitudinal data of 41,303 students from Utah\u27s 2008 high school graduation cohort, is compared to logistic and linear models, which are commonly used to predict college access and success. Substantially, this work finds High School GPA to be the best predictor of postsecondary GPA, whereas commonly used ACT and AP test scores are not nearly as important. Each model identified several demographic disparities in higher education access, most significantly the effects of individual-level economic disadvantage. District- and school-level factors such as the proportion of Low Income students and the proportion of Underrepresented Racial Minority (URM) students were important and negatively associated with postsecondary success. Methodologically, the RF model was able to capture non-linearity in the predictive power of school- and district-level variables, a key finding which was undetectable using linear models. The RF algorithm outperforms logistic models in prediction of student enrollment, performs similarly to linear models in prediction of postsecondary GPA, and excels both models in its descriptions of non-linear variable relationships. RF provides novel interpretations of data, challenges conclusions from linear models, and has enormous potential to further the literature around equity in postsecondary pipelines

Econometrics meets sentiment : an overview of methodology and applications

The advent of massive amounts of textual, audio, and visual data has spurred the development of econometric methodology to transform qualitative sentiment data into quantitative sentiment variables, and to use those variables in an econometric analysis of the relationships between sentiment and other variables. We survey this emerging research field and refer to it as sentometrics, which is a portmanteau of sentiment and econometrics. We provide a synthesis of the relevant methodological approaches, illustrate with empirical results, and discuss useful software