Deep Predictive Models for Collision Risk Assessment in Autonomous Driving

In this paper, we investigate a predictive approach for collision risk assessment in autonomous and assisted driving. A deep predictive model is trained to anticipate imminent accidents from traditional video streams. In particular, the model learns to identify cues in RGB images that are predictive of hazardous upcoming situations. In contrast to previous work, our approach incorporates (a) temporal information during decision making, (b) multi-modal information about the environment, as well as the proprioceptive state and steering actions of the controlled vehicle, and (c) information about the uncertainty inherent to the task. To this end, we discuss Deep Predictive Models and present an implementation using a Bayesian Convolutional LSTM. Experiments in a simple simulation environment show that the approach can learn to predict impending accidents with reasonable accuracy, especially when multiple cameras are used as input sources.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figure

Human Motion Trajectory Prediction: A Survey

With growing numbers of intelligent autonomous systems in human environments, the ability of such systems to perceive, understand and anticipate human behavior becomes increasingly important. Specifically, predicting future positions of dynamic agents and planning considering such predictions are key tasks for self-driving vehicles, service robots and advanced surveillance systems. This paper provides a survey of human motion trajectory prediction. We review, analyze and structure a large selection of work from different communities and propose a taxonomy that categorizes existing methods based on the motion modeling approach and level of contextual information used. We provide an overview of the existing datasets and performance metrics. We discuss limitations of the state of the art and outline directions for further research.Comment: Submitted to the International Journal of Robotics Research (IJRR), 37 page

Tree Memory Networks for Modelling Long-term Temporal Dependencies

In the domain of sequence modelling, Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) have been capable of achieving impressive results in a variety of application areas including visual question answering, part-of-speech tagging and machine translation. However this success in modelling short term dependencies has not successfully transitioned to application areas such as trajectory prediction, which require capturing both short term and long term relationships. In this paper, we propose a Tree Memory Network (TMN) for modelling long term and short term relationships in sequence-to-sequence mapping problems. The proposed network architecture is composed of an input module, controller and a memory module. In contrast to related literature, which models the memory as a sequence of historical states, we model the memory as a recursive tree structure. This structure more effectively captures temporal dependencies across both short term and long term sequences using its hierarchical structure. We demonstrate the effectiveness and flexibility of the proposed TMN in two practical problems, aircraft trajectory modelling and pedestrian trajectory modelling in a surveillance setting, and in both cases we outperform the current state-of-the-art. Furthermore, we perform an in depth analysis on the evolution of the memory module content over time and provide visual evidence on how the proposed TMN is able to map both long term and short term relationships efficiently via a hierarchical structure

Producing a commentary slows concurrent hazard perception responses

Commentary driver training involves teaching drivers how to verbally acknowledge their perceptual and cognitive processes while driving, and has been shown to improve performance in driving-related tasks. However, those studies demonstrating benefits of commentary training have not done so under conditions of live commentary, which is the typical protocol used with advanced drivers. In the current study we present the results of two experiments that show that producing a commentary can actually slow responses to hazards on a concurrent hazard perception task. In Experiment 1 participants producing a live commentary showed significantly longer hazard response times than an untrained, silent, control group. In Experiment 2 a shorter, clipped commentary was introduced to attempt to reduce the demands placed upon participants. However, both the clipped and full commentary conditions showed reduced accuracy and longer response times, relative to a silent condition, and no difference was observed between the two types of commentary. Analysis of eye movements in both experiments revealed that fixation durations were shorter when a commentary was produced, but time to first fixate the hazard was not affected. This suggests that commentaries encourage more active interrogation of the visual scene, but that this can be detrimental to performance in average drivers

Data-Driven Multi-step Demand Prediction for Ride-Hailing Services Using Convolutional Neural Network

Ride-hailing services are growing rapidly and becoming one of the most disruptive technologies in the transportation realm. Accurate prediction of ride-hailing trip demand not only enables cities to better understand people's activity patterns, but also helps ride-hailing companies and drivers make informed decisions to reduce deadheading vehicle miles traveled, traffic congestion, and energy consumption. In this study, a convolutional neural network (CNN)-based deep learning model is proposed for multi-step ride-hailing demand prediction using the trip request data in Chengdu, China, offered by DiDi Chuxing. The CNN model is capable of accurately predicting the ride-hailing pick-up demand at each 1-km by 1-km zone in the city of Chengdu for every 10 minutes. Compared with another deep learning model based on long short-term memory, the CNN model is 30% faster for the training and predicting process. The proposed model can also be easily extended to make multi-step predictions, which would benefit the on-demand shared autonomous vehicles applications and fleet operators in terms of supply-demand rebalancing. The prediction error attenuation analysis shows that the accuracy stays acceptable as the model predicts more steps

Curriculum Domain Adaptation for Semantic Segmentation of Urban Scenes

During the last half decade, convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have triumphed over semantic segmentation, which is one of the core tasks in many applications such as autonomous driving. However, to train CNNs requires a considerable amount of data, which is difficult to collect and laborious to annotate. Recent advances in computer graphics make it possible to train CNNs on photo-realistic synthetic imagery with computer-generated annotations. Despite this, the domain mismatch between the real images and the synthetic data cripples the models' performance. Hence, we propose a curriculum-style learning approach to minimize the domain gap in urban scenery semantic segmentation. The curriculum domain adaptation solves easy tasks first to infer necessary properties about the target domain; in particular, the first task is to learn global label distributions over images and local distributions over landmark superpixels. These are easy to estimate because images of urban scenes have strong idiosyncrasies (e.g., the size and spatial relations of buildings, streets, cars, etc.). We then train a segmentation network while regularizing its predictions in the target domain to follow those inferred properties. In experiments, our method outperforms the baselines on two datasets and two backbone networks. We also report extensive ablation studies about our approach.Comment: This is the extended version of the ICCV 2017 paper "Curriculum Domain Adaptation for Semantic Segmentation of Urban Scenes" with additional GTA experimen

Car that Knows Before You Do: Anticipating Maneuvers via Learning Temporal Driving Models

Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) have made driving safer over the last decade. They prepare vehicles for unsafe road conditions and alert drivers if they perform a dangerous maneuver. However, many accidents are unavoidable because by the time drivers are alerted, it is already too late. Anticipating maneuvers beforehand can alert drivers before they perform the maneuver and also give ADAS more time to avoid or prepare for the danger. In this work we anticipate driving maneuvers a few seconds before they occur. For this purpose we equip a car with cameras and a computing device to capture the driving context from both inside and outside of the car. We propose an Autoregressive Input-Output HMM to model the contextual information alongwith the maneuvers. We evaluate our approach on a diverse data set with 1180 miles of natural freeway and city driving and show that we can anticipate maneuvers 3.5 seconds before they occur with over 80\% F1-score in real-time.Comment: ICCV 2015, http://brain4cars.co