Customer lifetime value (ClV) modeling in retail banking

Based on regression models, simple customer’s attributes (age, income, assets and debt) - which banks usually use to identify who their most valuable customers are - were found not to be very effective at explaining and predicting customer’s Gross Income. Thus, banks are recommended to consider alternative methods. A CLV estimation model based on Markov Chains is presented and tested as a potential alternative, even though our application is still rather conceptual, with limitations which would have to be addressed in future research. Also, another methodology based on retention cohort analysis is presented, aimed at estimating CLV for individual products

EPA Guidelines for Regulatory Impact Analysis

On February 17, 1981, the President issued Executive Order 12291 mandating that regulatory agencies must prepare regulatory impact analyses (RIAs) on all major regulations. Before taking action, the agencies must send all RIAs and proposed regulations to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for review. These guidelines discuss the analytical techniques that may be used and the information to be developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency when (l) stating the need for the proposed regulatory action; (2) examining alternative approaches to the problem; (3) quantifying benefits and costs and valuing them in dollar terms (where feasible); and (4) evaluating the findings on benefits, costs, and distributional effects. This document provides guidance for preparing Regulatory Impact Analyses. It includes four appendices and one supplement in addition to the main document.

Detectability of dolphins and turtles from Unoccupied Aerial Vehicle (UAV) survey imagery

For many decades occupied aircraft with trained observers have conducted aerial surveys of marine megafauna to estimate population size and dynamics. Recent technological advances mean that unoccupied aerial vehicles (UAVs) now provide a potential alternative to occupied surveys, eliminating some of the disadvantages of occupied surveys such as risk to human life, weather constraints and cost. In this study, data collected from an occupied aircraft (at 500 ft) and a UAV (at 1400 ft) flown at the same time, deployed for counting dugongs, were compared for detecting dolphins and turtles within Shark Bay, Western Australia. The UAV images were manually reviewed post hoc to count the animals sighted and the environmental conditions (visibility, sea state, cloud cover and glare) had been classified by the occupied teams’ data for each image. The UAV captured more sightings (174 dolphins and 368 turtles) than were recorded by the flight team (93 dolphins and 312 turtles). Larger aggregations (>10 animals) were also found in the UAV images (5 aggregations of dolphins and turtles) compared to the occupied teams sightings (0 dolphins and 3 aggregations of turtles). A generalised linear mixed model determined that turtle detection was significantly affected by visibility, while cloud cover, sea state and visibility significantly affected dolphin detection in both platforms. An expert survey of 120 images was also conducted to determine the image ground sampling distance (GSD; four levels from 1.7 to 3.5 cm/pixel) needed to identify dolphin and turtles to species. At 3 cm/pixel only 40% of the dolphins and turtles were identified to species with a reasonable level of certainty (>75% certainty). This study demonstrated that UAVs can be successfully deployed for detecting dolphins and turtles and that a GSD of 1.7 – 3cm/pixel is too low resolution to effectively identify dolphin and turtle species. Overcoming the limitations imposed on UAVs such as aviator regulatory bodies and payload capabilities will make UAVs a pivotal tool for future research, conservation, and management

Topological Mapping and Navigation in Real-World Environments

We introduce the Hierarchical Hybrid Spatial Semantic Hierarchy (H2SSH), a hybrid topological-metric map representation. The H2SSH provides a more scalable representation of both small and large structures in the world than existing topological map representations, providing natural descriptions of a hallway lined with offices as well as a cluster of buildings on a college campus. By considering the affordances in the environment, we identify a division of space into three distinct classes: path segments afford travel between places at their ends, decision points present a choice amongst incident path segments, and destinations typically exist at the start and end of routes. Constructing an H2SSH map of the environment requires understanding both its local and global structure. We present a place detection and classification algorithm to create a semantic map representation that parses the free space in the local environment into a set of discrete areas representing features like corridors, intersections, and offices. Using these areas, we introduce a new probabilistic topological simultaneous localization and mapping algorithm based on lazy evaluation to estimate a probability distribution over possible topological maps of the global environment. After construction, an H2SSH map provides the necessary representations for navigation through large-scale environments. The local semantic map provides a high-fidelity metric map suitable for motion planning in dynamic environments, while the global topological map is a graph-like map that allows for route planning using simple graph search algorithms. For navigation, we have integrated the H2SSH with Model Predictive Equilibrium Point Control (MPEPC) to provide safe and efficient motion planning for our robotic wheelchair, Vulcan. However, navigation in human environments entails more than safety and efficiency, as human behavior is further influenced by complex cultural and social norms. We show how social norms for moving along corridors and through intersections can be learned by observing how pedestrians around the robot behave. We then integrate these learned norms with MPEPC to create a socially-aware navigation algorithm, SA-MPEPC. Through real-world experiments, we show how SA-MPEPC improves not only Vulcan’s adherence to social norms, but the adherence of pedestrians interacting with Vulcan as well.PHDComputer Science & EngineeringUniversity of Michigan, Horace H. Rackham School of Graduate Studieshttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/144014/1/collinej_1.pd

Toward a revival of stellar intensity interferometry

Journal ArticleBuilding on technological developments over the last 35 years, intensity interferometry now appears a feasible option by which to achieve diffraction-limited imaging over a square-kilometer synthetic aperture. Upcoming Atmospheric Cherenkov Telescope projects will consist of up to 100 telescopes, each with ~100m2 of light gathering area, and distributed over ~lkm2 . These large facilities will offer thousands of baselines from 50m to more than 1km and an unprecedented (u,v) plane coverage. The revival of interest in Intensity Interferometry has recently led to the formation of a IAU working group. Here we report on various ongoing efforts towards implementing modern Stellar Intensity Interferometry

The effects of "order" and "disorder" on human cognitive perception in navigating through urban environments

This paper investigates how “order”, “structure”, and “disorder” of street layouts are perceived when navigating through an urban environment. It builds on the assumption that a mixture of “order” and “disorder” might be a key factor for the quality of understanding within an urban context and that an “ordered” environment tends to be more intelligible when broken up by an irregularity occasionally. Knowledge about urban layouts can be accrued by the traveller in different ways: From static viewpoints, from top-down maps, and in travelling through the scenery. Cognitive processes that are involved in organising information about the structure of the built environment are known to simplify and schematise information. Such a “mental map” creates an image of the city, helps in memorising it and facilitates wayfinding tasks. Wayfinding experiments and investigations into the configuration of street networks have so far supported the understanding of movement behaviour and given insight from different perspectives on an urban environment. This paper will attempt to relate two aspects - configurational and sequential experiences of navigation (along a route) - to each other in using a methodological framework that allows for comparison of quantitative measurements and findings from both fields of research. The centre of attention will be the perception of “order”, “structure” and “disorder” from both perspectives: From “above” and from “along within” an urban environment. A virtual movement experiment with pre-chosen routes through six city samples is expected to provide meaningful empirical data with view on the perception of both configurational (view from above) and sequential (moving through scenery) embodiments of “order” and “disorder”, thereby introducing a methodological approach that applies string code computation in the spirit of probabilistic information theory