Machine learning to refine decision making within a syndromic surveillance service

Background: Worldwide, syndromic surveillance is increasingly used for improved and timely situational awareness and early identification of public health threats. Syndromic data streams are fed into detection algorithms, which produce statistical alarms highlighting potential activity of public health importance. All alarms must be assessed to confirm whether they are of public health importance. In England, approximately 100 alarms are generated daily and, although their analysis is formalised through a risk assessment process, the process requires notable time, training, and maintenance of an expertise base to determine which alarms are of public health importance. The process is made more complicated by the observation that only 0.1% of statistical alarms are deemed to be of public health importance. Therefore, the aims of this study were to evaluate machine learning as a tool for computer-assisted human decision-making when assessing statistical alarms. Methods: A record of the risk assessment process was obtained from Public Health England for all 67505 statistical alarms between August 2013 and October 2015. This record contained information on the characteristics of the alarm (e.g. size, location). We used three Bayesian classifiers- naïve Bayes, tree-augmented naïve Bayes and Multinets - to examine the risk assessment record in England with respect to the final ‘Decision’ outcome made by an epidemiologist of ‘Alert’, ‘Monitor’ or ‘No-action’. Two further classifications based upon tree-augmented naïve Bayes and Multinets were implemented to account for the predominance of ‘No-action’ outcomes. Results: The attributes of each individual risk assessment were linked to the final decision made by an epidemiologist, providing confidence in the current process. The naïve Bayesian classifier performed best, correctly classifying 51.5% of ‘Alert’ outcomes. If the ‘Alert’ and ‘Monitor’ actions are combined then performance increases to 82.6% correctly classified. We demonstrate how a decision support system based upon a naïve Bayes classifier could be operationalised within an operational syndromic surveillance system. Conclusions: Within syndromic surveillance systems, machine learning techniques have the potential to make risk assessment following statistical alarms more automated, robust, and rigorous. However, our results also highlight the importance of specialist human input to the process

Mining for Significant Information from Unstructured and Structured Biological Data and Its Applications

Massive amounts of biological data are being accumulated in science. Searching for significant meaningful information and patterns from different types of data is necessary towards gaining knowledge from these large amounts of data available to users. However, data mining techniques do not normally deal with significance. Integrating data mining techniques with standard statistical procedures provides a way for mining statistically signi- ficant, interesting information from both structured and unstructured data. In this dissertation, different algorithms for mining significant biological information from both unstructured and structured data are proposed. A weighted-density-based approach is presented for mining item data from unstructured textual representations. Different algorithms in the area of radiation hybrid mapping are developed for mining significant information from structured binary data. The proposed algorithms have different applications in the ordering problem in radiation hybrid mapping including: identifying unreliable markers, and building solid framework maps. Effectiveness of the proposed algorithms towards improving map stability is demonstrated. Map stability is determined based on resampling analysis. The proposed algorithms deal effectively and efficiently with multidimensional data and also reduce computational cost dramatically. Evaluation shows that the proposed algorithms outperform comparative methods in terms of both accuracy and computation cost

Automatic recognition of multiparty human interactions using dynamic Bayesian networks

Relating statistical machine learning approaches to the automatic analysis of multiparty communicative events, such as meetings, is an ambitious research area. We have investigated automatic meeting segmentation both in terms of “Meeting Actions” and “Dialogue Acts”. Dialogue acts model the discourse structure at a fine grained level highlighting individual speaker intentions. Group meeting actions describe the same process at a coarse level, highlighting interactions between different meeting participants and showing overall group intentions. A framework based on probabilistic graphical models such as dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) has been investigated for both tasks. Our first set of experiments is concerned with the segmentation and structuring of meetings (recorded using multiple cameras and microphones) into sequences of group meeting actions such as monologue, discussion and presentation. We outline four families of multimodal features based on speaker turns, lexical transcription, prosody, and visual motion that are extracted from the raw audio and video recordings. We relate these lowlevel multimodal features to complex group behaviours proposing a multistreammodelling framework based on dynamic Bayesian networks. Later experiments are concerned with the automatic recognition of Dialogue Acts (DAs) in multiparty conversational speech. We present a joint generative approach based on a switching DBN for DA recognition in which segmentation and classification of DAs are carried out in parallel. This approach models a set of features, related to lexical content and prosody, and incorporates a weighted interpolated factored language model. In conjunction with this joint generative model, we have also investigated the use of a discriminative approach, based on conditional random fields, to perform a reclassification of the segmented DAs. The DBN based approach yielded significant improvements when applied both to the meeting action and the dialogue act recognition task. On both tasks, the DBN framework provided an effective factorisation of the state-space and a flexible infrastructure able to integrate a heterogeneous set of resources such as continuous and discrete multimodal features, and statistical language models. Although our experiments have been principally targeted on multiparty meetings; features, models, and methodologies developed in this thesis can be employed for a wide range of applications. Moreover both group meeting actions and DAs offer valuable insights about the current conversational context providing valuable cues and features for several related research areas such as speaker addressing and focus of attention modelling, automatic speech recognition and understanding, topic and decision detection

Data Mining in Internet of Things Systems: A Literature Review

The Internet of Things (IoT) and cloud technologies have been the main focus of recent research, allowing for the accumulation of a vast amount of data generated from this diverse environment. These data include without any doubt priceless knowledge if could correctly discovered and correlated in an efficient manner. Data mining algorithms can be applied to the Internet of Things (IoT) to extract hidden information from the massive amounts of data that are generated by IoT and are thought to have high business value. In this paper, the most important data mining approaches covering classification, clustering, association analysis, time series analysis, and outlier analysis from the knowledge will be covered. Additionally, a survey of recent work in in this direction is included. Another significant challenges in the field are collecting, storing, and managing the large number of devices along with their associated features. In this paper, a deep look on the data mining for the IoT platforms will be given concentrating on real applications found in the literatur

Recognition of Dialogue Acts in Multiparty Meetings using a Switching DBN

This paper is concerned with the automatic recognition of dialogue acts (DAs) in multiparty conversational speech. We present a joint generative model for DA recognition in which segmentation and classification of DAs are carried out in parallel. Our approach to DA recognition is based on a switching dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) architecture. This generative approach models a set of features, related to lexical content and prosody, and incorporates a weighted interpolated factored language model. The switching DBN coordinates the recognition process by integrating the component models. The factored language model, which is estimated from multiple conversational data corpora, is used in conjunction with additional task-specific language models. In conjunction with this joint generative model, we have also investigated the use of a discriminative approach, based on conditional random fields, to perform a reclassification of the segmented DAs. We have carried out experiments on the AMI corpus of multimodal meeting recordings, using both manually transcribed speech, and the output of an automatic speech recognizer, and using different configurations of the generative model. Our results indicate that the system performs well both on reference and fully automatic transcriptions. A further significant improvement in recognition accuracy is obtained by the application of the discriminative reranking approach based on conditional random fields

Automatic maintenance of category hierarchy

Category hierarchy is an abstraction mechanism for efficiently managing large-scale resources. In an open environment, a category hierarchy will inevitably become inappropriate for managing resources that constantly change with unpredictable pattern. An inappropriate category hierarchy will mislead the management of resources. The increasing dynamicity and scale of online resources increase the requirement of automatically maintaining category hierarchy. Previous studies about category hierarchy mainly focus on either the generation of category hierarchy or the classification of resources under a pre-defined category hierarchy. The automatic maintenance of category hierarchy has been neglected. Making abstraction among categories and measuring the similarity between categories are two basic behaviours to generate a category hierarchy. Humans are good at making abstraction but limited in ability to calculate the similarities between large-scale resources. Computing models are good at calculating the similarities between large-scale resources but limited in ability to make abstraction. To take both advantages of human view and computing ability, this paper proposes a two-phase approach to automatically maintaining category hierarchy within two scales by detecting the internal pattern change of categories. The global phase clusters resources to generate a reference category hierarchy and gets similarity between categories to detect inappropriate categories in the initial category hierarchy. The accuracy of the clustering approaches in generating category hierarchy determines the rationality of the global maintenance. The local phase detects topical changes and then adjusts inappropriate categories with three local operations. The global phase can quickly target inappropriate categories top-down and carry out cross-branch adjustment, which can also accelerate the local-phase adjustments. The local phase detects and adjusts the local-range inappropriate categories that are not adjusted in the global phase. By incorporating the two complementary phase adjustments, the approach can significantly improve the topical cohesion and accuracy of category hierarchy. A new measure is proposed for evaluating category hierarchy considering not only the balance of the hierarchical structure but also the accuracy of classification. Experiments show that the proposed approach is feasible and effective to adjust inappropriate category hierarchy. The proposed approach can be used to maintain the category hierarchy for managing various resources in dynamic application environment. It also provides an approach to specialize the current online category hierarchy to organize resources with more specific categories

Semantic multimedia analysis using knowledge and context

PhDThe difficulty of semantic multimedia analysis can be attributed to the extended diversity in form and appearance exhibited by the majority of semantic concepts and the difficulty to express them using a finite number of patterns. In meeting this challenge there has been a scientific debate on whether the problem should be addressed from the perspective of using overwhelming amounts of training data to capture all possible instantiations of a concept, or from the perspective of using explicit knowledge about the concepts’ relations to infer their presence. In this thesis we address three problems of pattern recognition and propose solutions that combine the knowledge extracted implicitly from training data with the knowledge provided explicitly in structured form. First, we propose a BNs modeling approach that defines a conceptual space where both domain related evi- dence and evidence derived from content analysis can be jointly considered to support or disprove a hypothesis. The use of this space leads to sig- nificant gains in performance compared to analysis methods that can not handle combined knowledge. Then, we present an unsupervised method that exploits the collective nature of social media to automatically obtain large amounts of annotated image regions. By proving that the quality of the obtained samples can be almost as good as manually annotated images when working with large datasets, we significantly contribute towards scal- able object detection. Finally, we introduce a method that treats images, visual features and tags as the three observable variables of an aspect model and extracts a set of latent topics that incorporates the semantics of both visual and tag information space. By showing that the cross-modal depen- dencies of tagged images can be exploited to increase the semantic capacity of the resulting space, we advocate the use of all existing information facets in the semantic analysis of social media

Detection and Application of Influence Rankings in Small Group Meetings

We address the problem of automatically detecting participant's influence levels in meetings. The impact and social psychological background are discussed. The more influential a participant is, the more he or she influences the outcome of a meeting. Experiments on 40 meetings show that application of statistical (both dynamic and static) models while using simply obtainable features results in a best prediction performance of 70.59\% when using a static model, a balanced training set, and three discrete classes: high, normal and low. Application of the detected levels are shown in various ways i.e. in a virtual meeting environment as well as in a meeting browser system

Stratified Staged Trees: Modelling, Software and Applications

The thesis is focused on Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs), which are a rich framework for encoding probability distributions over complex domains. In particular, joint multivariate distributions over large numbers of random variables that interact with each other can be investigated through PGMs and conditional independence statements can be succinctly represented with graphical representations. These representations sit at the intersection of statistics and computer science, relying on concepts mainly from probability theory, graph algorithms and machine learning. They are applied in a wide variety of fields, such as medical diagnosis, image understanding, speech recognition, natural language processing, and many more. Over the years theory and methodology have developed and been extended in a multitude of directions. In particular, in this thesis different aspects of new classes of PGMs called Staged Trees and Chain Event Graphs (CEGs) are studied. In some sense, Staged Trees are a generalization of Bayesian Networks (BNs). Indeed, BNs provide a transparent graphical tool to define a complex process in terms of conditional independent structures. Despite their strengths in allowing for the reduction in the dimensionality of joint probability distributions of the statistical model and in providing a transparent framework for causal inference, BNs are not optimal GMs in all situations. The biggest problems with their usage mainly occur when the event space is not a simple product of the sample spaces of the random variables of interest, and when conditional independence statements are true only under certain values of variables. This happens when there are context-specific conditional independence structures. Some extensions to the BN framework have been proposed to handle these issues: context-specific BNs, Bayesian Multinets, or Similarity Networks citep{geiger1996knowledge}. These adopt a hypothesis variable to encode the context-specific statements over a particular set of random variables. For each value taken by the hypothesis variable the graphical modeller has to construct a particular BN model called local network. The collection of these local networks constitute a Bayesian Multinet, Probabilistic Decision Graphs, among others. It has been showed that Chain Event Graph (CEG) models encompass all discrete BN models and its discrete variants described above as a special subclass and they are also richer than Probabilistic Decision Graphs whose semantics is actually somewhat distinct. Unlike most of its competitors, CEGs can capture all (also context-specific) conditional independences in a unique graph, obtained by a coalescence over the vertices of an appropriately constructed probability tree, called Staged Tree. CEGs have been developed for categorical variables and have been used for cohort studies, causal analysis and case-control studies. The user\u2019s toolbox to efficiently and effectively perform uncertainty reasoning with CEGs further includes methods for inference and probability propagation, the exploration of equivalence classes and robustness studies. The main contributions of this thesis to the literature on Staged Trees are related to Stratified Staged Trees with a keen eye of application. Few observations are made on non-Stratified Staged Trees in the last part of the thesis. A core output of the thesis is an R software package which efficiently implements a host of functions for learning and estimating Staged Trees from data, relying on likelihood principles. Also structural learning algorithms based on distance or divergence between pair of categorical probability distributions and based on the clusterization of probability distributions in a fixed number of stages for each stratum of the tree are developed. Also a new class of Directed Acyclic Graph has been introduced, named Asymmetric-labeled DAG (ALDAG), which gives a BN representation of a given Staged Tree. The ALDAG is a minimal DAG such that the statistical model embedded in the Staged Tree is contained in the one associated to the ALDAG. This is possible thanks to the use of colored edges, so that each color indicates a different type of conditional dependence: total, context-specific, partial or local. Staged Trees are also adopted in this thesis as a statistical tool for classification purpose. Staged Tree Classifiers are introduced, which exhibit comparable predictive results based on accuracy with respect to algorithms from state of the art of machine learning such as neural networks and random forests. At last, algorithms to obtain an ordering of variables for the construction of the Staged Tree are designed