E pluribus unum: what individual whales can tell us about enigmatic species distribution and social organization

Large whales have historically been difficult to study and many aspects of their ecology remain unknown especially at the long -term population level. The ability to identify individual whales based on natural markings provides the opportunity to track individuals over time and space; this data may offer more insight into the ecology of whales than previously imagined. This study demonstrates use of photo-identification data to model both social structure and habitat selection, minimizing the need for invasive research and greatly increasing the sample size used in such endeavors. A conditional logistic model is written for a 20-year sightings dataset on humpback whales collected by Allied Whale research trips and on the Bar Harbor Whale Watch Company vessels, examining choice of individuals over a given landscape and incorporating the cost of movement. Habitat choices are represented by static and remotely sensed variables including bathymetry, distance from shore, and sea surface temperature. Results show significant active decisions of whales to move towards specific hotspots ~23km offshore of intermediate depth. These models are validated by systematic boat surveys conducted during two field seasons. Sightings data are also applied to social networking analyses. Association indices are calculated for each dyad of whales and preferred association is tested for through a valid Markov chain of permutations. Network structure is delineated through optimal modularity clustering producing visualizations of communities. Significant preferred companionship is seen between 94 dyads and individuals are separated into nine communities. Community structure is not entirely stable and shifts over time. Lastly, movement behavior and social structure between the whales in the northern Gulf of Maine are compared to that of the whales in the southern Gulf of Maine. The analyses listed above are run on a 26-year dataset provided by Provincetown Center for Coastal Studies on humpback whales on Stellwagen Bank. Differences are seen between northern and southern whales in use of habitat and degree of sociality. Whales in the southern aggregation are more gregarious, but have a lesser degree of long-term community structure. By applying new analytic tools to long-term observations, this research provides insights into humpback whale social behavior and ecology that should inform marine management strategies in the region

Model-predicting the Effect of Freshwater Inflow on Saltwater Layers, Migration and Life History of Zooplankton in the Arctic Ocean: Towards Scenarios and Future Trends

The Arctic Ocean is warming up and an increasing freshwater inflow is triggering major changes in ocean layers. This model study aims at creating a baseline, and analyzing the effect of freshwater content changes, subsequent freshwater sealing as well as related parameters in the Arctic Ocean on migration and life history of zooplankton such as copepods and euphausiids. Copepods and euphausiids make for a major part of the zooplankton biomass in the Arctic Ocean, and are an important part of the food chain. Analyses are carried out using an ecosystem-based, spatial modeling approach with machine learning algorithms (Salford Systems TreeNet®, Random Forests® and R implementations). The underlying data consists of over 100 predictors including a globally unique data set of physical oceanography. Raw data that was used in this project is available as metadata from the Core Science Metadata Clearinghouse (former National Biological Information Infrastructure) and available at http://mercury.ornl.gov/clearinghouse/ and on servers from the University of Alaska Fairbanks. The Canadian Earth System Model 2 (CanESM2) was utilized to model the effect of changing climate on zooplankton for the next 100 years and for a low emission (RCP26) and a high emission scenario (RCP85). The results consist of spatially explicit (where every point in the layer is geo referenced) and predicted layers for Geographic Information Systems (GIS) that show predicted plankton presence/random absence as well as the relative index of depth and life stage distribution where the zooplankton is most likely to occur. The models show a clear trend towards an increasing relative index of depth where zooplankton is most likely to be found for the year 2100. Moreover, a trend towards a diminishing ecological niche for adult life stages of zooplankton was observed. These changes add stress to the life of zooplankton, especially regarding the diel vertical migration of mostly adult life stages. If zooplankton has to migrate a longer way, this will most likely increase energy expenditure and predation risk which ultimately decreases fitness. When accounting for other man-made impacts on the ocean such as ocean acidification and increasing shipping in the Arctic and taking the big picture into account, the outlook and conditions for zooplankton in 2100 are negative.Abstract -- Acknowledgements -- List of Abbreviations -- Units -- Content -- List of Figures -- List of Tables -- 1: Introduction -- 2: Methods -- 3: Results -- Discussion -- References -- Appendi

Basic Research Needs for Geosciences: Facilitating 21st Century Energy Systems

Executive Summary Serious challenges must be faced in this century as the world seeks to meet global energy needs and at the same time reduce emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Even with a growing energy supply from alternative sources, fossil carbon resources will remain in heavy use and will generate large volumes of carbon dioxide (CO2). To reduce the atmospheric impact of this fossil energy use, it is necessary to capture and sequester a substantial fraction of the produced CO2. Subsurface geologic formations offer a potential location for long-term storage of the requisite large volumes of CO2. Nuclear energy resources could also reduce use of carbon-based fuels and CO2 generation, especially if nuclear energy capacity is greatly increased. Nuclear power generation results in spent nuclear fuel and other radioactive materials that also must be sequestered underground. Hence, regardless of technology choices, there will be major increases in the demand to store materials underground in large quantities, for long times, and with increasing efficiency and safety margins. Rock formations are composed of complex natural materials and were not designed by nature as storage vaults. If new energy technologies are to be developed in a timely fashion while ensuring public safety, fundamental improvements are needed in our understanding of how these rock formations will perform as storage systems. This report describes the scientific challenges associated with geologic sequestration of large volumes of carbon dioxide for hundreds of years, and also addresses the geoscientific aspects of safely storing nuclear waste materials for thousands to hundreds of thousands of years. The fundamental crosscutting challenge is to understand the properties and processes associated with complex and heterogeneous subsurface mineral assemblages comprising porous rock formations, and the equally complex fluids that may reside within and flow through those formations. The relevant physical and chemical interactions occur on spatial scales that range from those of atoms, molecules, and mineral surfaces, up to tens of kilometers, and time scales that range from picoseconds to millennia and longer. To predict with confidence the transport and fate of either CO2 or the various components of stored nuclear materials, we need to learn to better describe fundamental atomic, molecular, and biological processes, and to translate those microscale descriptions into macroscopic properties of materials and fluids. We also need fundamental advances in the ability to simulate multiscale systems as they are perturbed during sequestration activities and for very long times afterward, and to monitor those systems in real time with increasing spatial and temporal resolution. The ultimate objective is to predict accurately the performance of the subsurface fluid-rock storage systems, and to verify enough of the predicted performance with direct observations to build confidence that the systems will meet their design targets as well as environmental protection goals. The report summarizes the results and conclusions of a Workshop on Basic Research Needs for Geosciences held in February 2007. Five panels met, resulting in four Panel Reports, three Grand Challenges, six Priority Research Directions, and three Crosscutting Research Issues. The Grand Challenges differ from the Priority Research Directions in that the former describe broader, long-term objectives while the latter are more focused

The Temporal and Spatial Distribution of Malaria in Africa,\ud with Emphasis on Southern Africa

The three-way relationship between the Plasmodium parasite, the Anopheles mosquito vector and the human host determines the incidence of malaria disease. The three life cycles, the interactions respectively between human and parasite, human and mosquito, and mosquito and parasite, and the ultimate transmission cycle, vary in time and space. Environmental, genetic and behavioural factors influence the three life cycles and the interactions. These factors also vary in time and space. At every level the variation itself, whether random or cyclical, is not uniform but varies in frequency and magnitude. Explaining, and particularly predicting, malaria transmission rates in time and space thus becomes a difficult undertaking. Knowing and understanding some of this variation, and its causes, is important for well-timed and well-targeted malaria interventions. In the fringe areas of malaria in Africa, which are prone to epidemics, some forewarning of unusually high incidence periods would be valuable to malaria control and management services. This thesis investigated the temporal and spatial effects on malaria transmission of various environmental factors, particularly climate, and of non-climatic factors, particularly those relating to malaria control. Different data sets and methodological approaches were applied in seven separate studies, and malaria distribution in time and space was investigated at different scales. At the continental scale, the distribution of malaria in Africa was modelled as a factor of climate using raster GIS techniques. At the national scale, using prevalence data from Botswana, spatial variation in prevalence was modelled as a factor of environmental determinants, prior to comprehensive malaria control. The spatial and inter-annual variation in prevalence, in the presence of intense control, was also modelled as a factor of climate. At the sub-national level South Africa was used as an example. Inter-annual variation in malaria incidence in the highest-risk province was explored for possible links with climatic and non-climatic factors. Finally, inter-annual and spatial variation in sub-provincial level incidence data for South Africa, were analysed with respect to climatic and non-climatic determinants, for which data were available. The two study areas (Botswana and South Africa) both lie at the fringe of malaria distribution, experience strongly seasonal transmission and epidemics, and both benefit from intensive malaria control. The two study areas represent two slightly different scenarios: in Botswana the analysis period covered the steady introduction of comprehensive control, while in South Africa the study period covered a time when effective control was being threatened by the spread of insecticide- and drug resistance, and the general health of the population was increasingly affected by the HIV pandemic. The main findings were the following: • It was possible to estimate the distribution of malaria in Africa fairly successfully from long term mean climate data via simple GIS methods. The model compared well with contemporary malaria data and historical ‘expert opinion’ maps, excepting small-scale ecological anomalies. The model provided a numerical basis for further refinement and prediction of the impact of climate change on transmission. Together with population, morbidity and mortality data, it has provided a fundamental tool for strategic control of malaria. • In Botswana the spatial variation in childhood malaria prevalence, prior to intense comprehensive control, was significantly associated with underlying environmental factors. It could be predicted and mapped using only three environmental predictors, namely summer rainfall, mean annual temperature and altitude. After starting with a long list of candidate variables, this parsimonious model was achieved by applying a systematic and repeatable staged variable exclusion procedure that included a spatial analysis. All this was accomplished using general-purpose statistical software. • In the presence of intense control, the spatial and temporal variability in childhood malaria prevalence in Botswana could no longer be explained by variation in climate. The effects of malaria control and good access to treatment seem to have replaced climate as the main determinant of prevalence. This also suggests that prevalence, a less direct measure of transmission rate, is more prone to non-climatic effects than incidence rate. • Total population malaria incidence in KwaZulu-Natal, the highest risk province of South Africa, remained significantly influenced by climate over a 30 year period, even in the presence of intense control. The inter-annual variation in case numbers were significantly associated with several climate variables, mainly mean annual daily temperatures and summer rainfall. However, climate factors did not explain the longer term total incidence rates. • The longer term trends in total malaria incidence in KwaZulu-Natal province, over the same 30 years period, were significantly associated with the spread of anti-malarial drug resistance and HIV prevalence. Cross-border movements of people, agricultural activities and emergence of insecticide resistance also affected the level of malaria transmission at certain periods and to some degree, but this could not be formally quantified. • When considering malaria incidence in three malarious provinces of South Africa at a sub-provincial level, the observed temporal and spatial variation could largely be explained by available weather, HIV prevalence and drug-resistance data. However, much of the region-specific temporal trends remained unexplained. Temporal forecasts, based on 18 years of data, predicted for six years for six regions, were not very accurate and lacked precision. It seems that the interplay of climatic and non-climatic factors in the South African context is too complex to allow forecasts that are suitable for decision-making at the provincial level. • The findings of this thesis emphasize that in addition to shorter-term variation, which seems to be driven by climate in many cases, malaria transmission is largely determined by non-climatic factors in southern Africa. This appears to be particularly true where the natural malaria endemicity has been modified by control interventions. As the drive to control malaria in Africa continues and intensifies, the need for long-term surveillance of not merely malaria transmission, but also of the coverage and effectiveness of control interventions, will grow

Phylogeography and molecular phylogenetics of the hoary marmot (Marmota caligata)

Thesis (Ph.D.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2017In this dissertation I documented the phylogeographic history of the Hoary Marmot (Marmota caligata) and its phylogenetic relationships with the Vancouver Island (M. vancouverensis) and Olympic (M. olympus) marmots. The Hoary Marmot is an iconic alpine mammal that is broadly distributed throughout the Pacific Northwest (PNW) from Washington and central Idaho in the south to Alaska in the north. Vancouver Island and Olympic marmots have much more restricted geographic distributions, occurring only on Vancouver Island (British Columbia, Canada) and the Olympic Peninsula (Washington, USA), respectively. In my first chapter I used mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequence data to document the existence of 2 mtDNA clades in Hoary Marmots. I also used mtDNA and nuclear sequence data to infer historic gene flow from Hoary into Vancouver Island marmots, which resulted in the latter "capturing" the mitochondrial genome of the former. Analyses of nuclear sequence data also suggested the potential for historic gene flow between Hoary Marmots and Olympic Marmots in Washington. In my second chapter I investigated the origins of Hoary Marmots on Sud Island, Alaska, part of the Maritime National Wildlife Refuge. This island population of marmots was purported to have been introduced by humans and detrimental to nesting seabirds. As a result, the United States Fish and Wildlife Service undertook efforts to eradicate the Hoary Marmot population on Sud Island between 2009-2011. I conducted a literature review of marmot introductions in Alaska and used molecular data to determine the geographic origin of marmots on Sud Island. Through my literature review I found no direct evidence that marmots were introduced to Sud Island or any documentation that they were detrimental to nesting seabirds on this island. Molecular analysis identified the Hoary Marmot population on Sud Island as a distinct genetic cluster, with divergence time estimates similar to those of a naturally occurring island population, suggesting a natural colonization of Sud Island by Hoary Marmots. In my third chapter I investigated potential refugia used by Hoary Marmots during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the potential effects of climate change on the future distribution of suitable habitat. To address these questions I used species distribution models (SDMs) based on all available museum specimens and population genetic summary statistics calculated from mtDNA sequence data. I found the most likely areas of LGM refugia were located south of the glacial margins of the Pleistocene and along the PNW coast. Habitat in the southernmost portion of the Hoary Marmot current geographic distribution was predicted to be the most negatively impacted by future climate change. Additionally, populations from this region were the most genetically diverse, indicating that these populations may be important for conservation of the species as a whole. In my final chapter I used microsatellite and sequence (mtDNA and nuclear) data to revisit the findings of my first chapter and to test for gene flow between Hoary, Vancouver Island, and Olympic marmots, as well as between the 2 Hoary Marmot mtDNA clades. I also improved the known distribution of the Hoary Marmot mtDNA clades by determining clade membership of 98 museum specimens for which no fresh tissues exist. Analysis of the combined sequence and microsatellite data confirmed previous findings that introgression led to Vancouver Island Marmots capturing the mitochondrial genome of Hoary Marmots. The addition of microsatellite data did not resolve the origin of nuclear alleles shared between Hoary Marmots from Washington and Olympic Marmots. Regarding the 2 Hoary Marmot mtDNA clades, molecular results suggested unidirectional gene flow between the clades and that male-biased dispersal is likely occurring in the species. The additional mtDNA clade membership data from the 98 museum specimens revealed that British Columbia is predominantly occupied by a single mtDNA clade. Overall, my research has shown that populations in the southern portion of the Hoary Marmot's geographic distribution are likely to be the most important for conservation and that additional research in this region is needed. I also documented the existence of introgression between Hoary and Vancouver Island marmots, highlighting the importance of using multiple unlinked loci for phylogenetic and phylogeographic analysis. Lastly, my findings call attention tothe importance of rigorously verifying primary sources of information before undertaking species eradications

Aerospace medicine and biology: A continuing bibliography with indexes (supplement 389)

This bibliography lists 234 reports, articles, and other documents recently introduced into the NASA Scientific and Technical Information System. Subject coverage includes: aerospace medicine and physiology, life support systems and man/system technology, protective clothing, exobiology and extraterrestrial life, planetary biology, and flight crew behavior and performance

A Model-based and data-driven Operational Ecological Biomass Estimator

Editors: Einar Svendsen (chairman); Jens Glad Balchen; Johnny Johannessen; Bjarte Bogstad; Jo Arve Alfredsen; Dag Slagstad; Morten Skogen; Kurt TandeA 10-year multidisciplinary research and development project to improve the understanding of the dynamics of the marine ecosystems, and to produce a tool to meet the future increasing demands for an ecological approach to marine management based on precautionary principles