Agent-based transportation planning compared with scheduling heuristics

Here we consider the problem of dynamically assigning vehicles to transportation orders that have di¤erent time windows and should be handled in real time. We introduce a new agent-based system for the planning and scheduling of these transportation networks. Intelligent vehicle agents schedule their own routes. They interact with job agents, who strive for minimum transportation costs, using a Vickrey auction for each incoming order. We use simulation to compare the on-time delivery percentage and the vehicle utilization of an agent-based planning system to a traditional system based on OR heuristics (look-ahead rules, serial scheduling). Numerical experiments show that a properly designed multi-agent system may perform as good as or even better than traditional methods

Timely Data Delivery in a Realistic Bus Network

Abstract—WiFi-enabled buses and stops may form the backbone of a metropolitan delay tolerant network, that exploits nearby communications, temporary storage at stops, and predictable bus mobility to deliver non-real time information. This paper studies the problem of how to route data from its source to its destination in order to maximize the delivery probability by a given deadline. We assume to know the bus schedule, but we take into account that randomness, due to road traffic conditions or passengers boarding and alighting, affects bus mobility. We propose a simple stochastic model for bus arrivals at stops, supported by a study of real-life traces collected in a large urban network. A succinct graph representation of this model allows us to devise an optimal (under our model) single-copy routing algorithm and then extend it to cases where several copies of the same data are permitted. Through an extensive simulation study, we compare the optimal routing algorithm with three other approaches: minimizing the expected traversal time over our graph, minimizing the number of hops a packet can travel, and a recently-proposed heuristic based on bus frequencies. Our optimal algorithm outperforms all of them, but most of the times it essentially reduces to minimizing the expected traversal time. For values of deadlines close to the expected delivery time, the multi-copy extension requires only 10 copies to reach almost the performance of the costly flooding approach. I

Data-driven optimization of bus schedules under uncertainties

Plusieurs sous-problèmes d’optimisation se posent lors de la planification des transports publics. Le problème d’itinéraires de véhicule (PIV) est l’un d’entre eux et consiste à minimiser les coûts opérationnels tout en assignant exactement un autobus par trajet planifié de sorte que le nombre d’autobus entreposé par dépôt ne dépasse pas la capacité maximale disponible. Bien que les transports publics soient sujets à plusieurs sources d’incertitude (à la fois endogènes et exogènes) pouvant engendrer des variations des temps de trajet et de la consommation d’énergie, le PIV et ses variantes sont la plupart du temps résolus de façon déterministe pour des raisons de résolubilité. Toutefois, cette hypothèse peut compromettre le respect de l’horaire établi lorsque les temps des trajets considérés sont fixes (c.-à-d. déterministes) et peut produire des solutions impliquant des politiques de gestion des batteries inadéquates lorsque la consommation d’énergie est aussi considérée comme fixe. Dans cette thèse, nous proposons une méthodologie pour mesurer la fiabilité (ou le respect de l’horaire établi) d’un service de transport public ainsi que des modèles mathématiques stochastiques et orientés données et des algorithmes de branch-and-price pour deux variantes de ce problème, à savoir le problème d’itinéraires de véhicule avec dépôts multiples (PIVDM) et le problème d’itinéraires de véhicule électrique (PIV-E). Afin d’évaluer la fiabilité, c.-à-d. la tolérance aux délais, de certains itinéraires de véhicule, nous prédisons d’abord la distribution des temps de trajet des autobus. Pour ce faire, nous comparons plusieurs modèles probabilistes selon leur capacité à prédire correctement la fonction de densité des temps de trajet des autobus sur le long terme. Ensuite, nous estimons à l'aide d'une simulation de Monte-Carlo la fiabilité des horaires d’autobus en générant des temps de trajet aléatoires à chaque itération. Nous intégrons alors le modèle probabiliste le plus approprié, celui qui est capable de prédire avec précision à la fois la véritable fonction de densité conditionnelle des temps de trajet et les retards secondaires espérés, dans nos modèles d'optimisation basés sur les données. Deuxièmement, nous introduisons un modèle pour PIVDM fiable avec des temps de trajet stochastiques. Ce problème d’optimisation bi-objectif vise à minimiser les coûts opérationnels et les pénalités associées aux retards. Un algorithme heuristique basé sur la génération de colonnes avec des sous-problèmes stochastiques est proposé pour résoudre ce problème. Cet algorithme calcule de manière dynamique les retards secondaires espérés à mesure que de nouvelles colonnes sont générées. Troisièmement, nous proposons un nouveau programme stochastique à deux étapes avec recours pour le PIVDM électrique avec des temps de trajet et des consommations d’énergie stochastiques. La politique de recours est conçue pour rétablir la faisabilité énergétique lorsque les itinéraires de véhicule produits a priori se révèlent non réalisables. Toutefois, cette flexibilité vient au prix de potentiels retards induits. Une adaptation d’un algorithme de branch-and-price est développé pour évaluer la pertinence de cette approche pour deux types d'autobus électriques à batterie disponibles sur le marché. Enfin, nous présentons un premier modèle stochastique pour le PIV-E avec dégradation de la batterie. Le modèle sous contrainte en probabilité proposé tient compte de l’incertitude de la consommation d’énergie, permettant ainsi un contrôle efficace de la dégradation de la batterie grâce au contrôle effectif de l’état de charge (EdC) moyen et l’écart de EdC. Ce modèle, combiné à l’algorithme de branch-and-price, sert d’outil pour balancer les coûts opérationnels et la dégradation de la batterie.The vehicle scheduling problem (VSP) is one of the sub-problems of public transport planning. It aims to minimize operational costs while assigning exactly one bus per timetabled trip and respecting the capacity of each depot. Even thought public transport planning is subject to various endogenous and exogenous causes of uncertainty, notably affecting travel time and energy consumption, the VSP and its variants are usually solved deterministically to address tractability issues. However, considering deterministic travel time in the VSP can compromise schedule adherence, whereas considering deterministic energy consumption in the electric VSP (E-VSP) may result in solutions with inadequate battery management. In this thesis, we propose a methodology for measuring the reliability (or schedule adherence) of public transport, along with stochastic and data-driven mathematical models and branch-and-price algorithms for two variations of this problem, namely the multi-depot vehicle scheduling problem (MDVSP) and the E-VSP. To assess the reliability of vehicle schedules in terms of their tolerance to delays, we first predict the distribution of bus travel times. We compare numerous probabilistic models for the long-term prediction of bus travel time density. Using a Monte Carlo simulation, we then estimate the reliability of bus schedules by generating random travel times at each iteration. Subsequently, we integrate the most suitable probabilistic model, capable of accurately predicting both the true conditional density function of the travel time and the expected secondary delays, into the data-driven optimization models. Second, we introduce a model for the reliable MDVSP with stochastic travel time minimizing both the operational costs and penalties associated with delays. To effectively tackle this problem, we propose a heuristic column generation-based algorithm, which incorporates stochastic pricing problems. This algorithm dynamically computes the expected secondary delays as new columns are generated. Third, we propose a new two-stage stochastic program with recourse for the electric MDVSP with stochastic travel time and energy consumption. The recourse policy aims to restore energy feasibility when a priori vehicle schedules are unfeasible, which may lead to delays. An adapted algorithm based on column generation is developed to assess the relevance of this approach for two types of commercially available battery electric buses. Finally, we present the first stochastic model for the E-VSP with battery degradation. The proposed chance-constraint model incorporates energy consumption uncertainty, allowing for effective control of battery degradation by regulating the average state-of-charge (SOC) and SoC deviation in each discharging and charging cycle. This model, in combination with a tailored branch-and-price algorithm, serves as a tool to strike a balance between operational costs and battery degradation

Optimization of headway, stops, and time points considering stochastic bus arrivals

With the capability to transport a large number of passengers, public transit acts as an important role in congestion reduction and energy conservation. However, the quality of transit service, in terms of accessibility and reliability, significantly affects model choices of transit users. Unreliable service will cause extra wait time to passengers because of headway irregularity at stops, as well as extra recovery time built into schedule and additional cost to operators because of ineffective utilization of allocated resources. This study aims to optimize service planning and improve reliability for a fixed bus route, yielding maximum operator’s profit. Three models are developed to deal with different systems. Model I focuses on a feeder transit route with many-to-one demand patterns, which serves to prove the concept that headway variance has a significant influence on the operator profit and optimal stop/headway configuration. It optimizes stop spacing and headway for maximum operator’s profit under the consideration of demand elasticity. With a discrete modelling approach, Model II optimizes actual stop locations and dispatching headway for a conventional transit route with many-to-many demand patterns. It is applied for maximizing operator profit and improving service reliability considering elasticity of demand with respect to travel time. In the second model, the headway variance is formulated to take into account the interrelationship of link travel time variation and demand fluctuation over space and time. Model III is developed to optimize the number and locations of time points with a headway-based vehicle controlling approach. It integrates a simulation model and an optimization model with two objectives - minimizing average user cost and minimizing average operator cost. With the optimal result generated by Model II, the final model further enhances system performance in terms of headway regularity. Three case studies are conducted to test the applicability of the developed models in a real world bus route, whose demand distribution is adjusted to fit the data needs for each model. It is found that ignoring the impact of headway variance in service planning optimization leads to poor decision making (i.e., not cost-effective). The results show that the optimized headway and stops effectively improve operator’s profit and elevate system level of service in terms of reduced headway coefficient of variation at stops. Moreover, the developed models are flexible for both planning of a new bus route and modifying an existing bus route for better performance

Traffic Light Control Using Deep Policy-Gradient and Value-Function Based Reinforcement Learning

Recent advances in combining deep neural network architectures with reinforcement learning techniques have shown promising potential results in solving complex control problems with high dimensional state and action spaces. Inspired by these successes, in this paper, we build two kinds of reinforcement learning algorithms: deep policy-gradient and value-function based agents which can predict the best possible traffic signal for a traffic intersection. At each time step, these adaptive traffic light control agents receive a snapshot of the current state of a graphical traffic simulator and produce control signals. The policy-gradient based agent maps its observation directly to the control signal, however the value-function based agent first estimates values for all legal control signals. The agent then selects the optimal control action with the highest value. Our methods show promising results in a traffic network simulated in the SUMO traffic simulator, without suffering from instability issues during the training process

The Full Cost of High-Speed Rail: An Engineering Approach

This paper examines the full costs, defined as the sum of private and social costs, of a high speed rail system proposed for a corridor connecting Los Angeles and San Francisco in California. The full costs include infrastructure, fleet capital and operating expenses, the time users spend on the system, and the social costs of externalities, such as noise, pollution, and accidents. Comparing these full costs to those of other competing modes contributes to the evaluation of the feasibility of high speed rail in the corridor. The paper concludes that high speed rail is significantly more costly than expanding existing air service, and marginally more expensive than auto travel. This suggests that high speed rail is better positioned to serve shorter distance markets where it competes with auto travel than longer distance markets where it substitutes for air. .

A multiobjective single bus corridor scheduling using machine learning-based predictive models

Many real-life optimisation problems, including those in production and logistics, have uncertainties that pose considerable challenges for practitioners. In spite of considerable efforts, the current methods are still not satisfactory. This is primarily caused by a lack of effective methods to deal with various uncertainties. Existing literature comes from two isolated research communities, namely the operations research community and the machine learning community. In the operations research community, uncertainties are often modelled and solved through techniques like stochastic programming or robust optimisation, which are often criticised for their over conservativeness. In the machine learning community, the problem is formulated as a dynamic control problem and solved through techniques like supervised learning and/or reinforcement learning, which could suffer from being myopic and unstable. In this paper, we aim to fill this research gap and develop a novel framework that takes advantages of both short-term accuracy from mathematical models and high-quality future forecasts from machine learning modules. We demonstrate the practicality and feasibility of our approach for a real-life bus scheduling problem and two controlled bus scheduling instances that are generated artificially. To our knowledge, the proposed framework represents the first multi-objective bus-headway-optimisation method for non-timetabled bus schedule with major practical constraints being considered. The advantages of our proposed methods are also discussed, along with factors that need to be carefully considered for practical applications. © 2020, © 2020 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group