Linear regression models with autoregressive integrated moving average errors for measurements from real time kinematics-global navigation satellite system during dynamic test

The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) method has been used to model global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) measurement errors. Most ARIMA error models describe time series data of static GNSS receivers. Its application for modeling of GNSS under dynamic tests is not evident. In this paper, we aim to describe real time kinematic-GNSS (RTK-GNSS) errors during dynamic tests using linear regression with ARIMA errors to establish a proof of concept via simulation that measurement errors along a trajectory logged by the RTK-GNSS can be “filtered”, which will result in improved positioning accuracy. Three sets of trajectory data of an RTK-GNSS logged in a multipath location were collected. Preliminary analysis on the data reveals the inability of the RTK-GNSS to achieve fixed integer solution most of the time, along with the presence of correlated noise in the error residuals. The best linear regression models with ARIMA errors for each data set were identified using the Akaike information criterion (AIC). The models were implemented via simulations to predict improved coordinate points. Evaluation on model residuals using autocorrelation, partial correlation, scatter plot, quantile-quantile (QQ) plot and histogram indicated that the models fitted the data well. Mean absolute errors were improved by up to 57.35% using the developed models

An investigation into the prognosis of electromagnetic relays.

Electrical contacts provide a well-proven solution to switching various loads in a wide variety of applications, such as power distribution, control applications, automotive and telecommunications. However, electrical contacts are known for limited reliability due to degradation effects upon the switching contacts due to arcing and fretting. Essentially, the life of the device may be determined by the limited life of the contacts. Failure to trip, spurious tripping and contact welding can, in critical applications such as control systems for avionics and nuclear power application, cause significant costs due to downtime, as well as safety implications. Prognostics provides a way to assess the remaining useful life (RUL) of a component based on its current state of health and its anticipated future usage and operating conditions. In this thesis, the effects of contact wear on a set of electromagnetic relays used in an avionic power controller is examined, and how contact resistance combined with a prognostic approach, can be used to ascertain the RUL of the device. Two methodologies are presented, firstly a Physics based Model (PbM) of the degradation using the predicted material loss due to arc damage. Secondly a computationally efficient technique using posterior degradation data to form a state space model in real time via a Sliding Window Recursive Least Squares (SWRLS) algorithm. Health monitoring using the presented techniques can provide knowledge of impending failure in high reliability applications where the risks associated with loss-of-functionality are too high to endure. The future states of the systems has been estimated based on a Particle and Kalman-filter projection of the models via a Bayesian framework. Performance of the prognostication health management algorithm during the contacts life has been quantified using performance evaluation metrics. Model predictions have been correlated with experimental data. Prognostic metrics including Prognostic Horizon (PH), alpha-Lamda (α-λ), and Relative Accuracy have been used to assess the performance of the damage proxies and a comparison of the two models made

Automated Detection of Electric Energy Consumption Load Profile Patterns

[EN] Load profiles of energy consumption from smart meters are becoming more and more available, and the amount of data to analyse is huge. In order to automate this analysis, the application of state-of-the-art data mining techniques for time series analysis is reviewed. In particular, the use of dynamic clustering techniques to obtain and visualise temporal patterns characterising the users of electrical energy is deeply studied. The performed review can be used as a guide for those interested in the automatic analysis and groups of behaviour detection within load profile databases. Additionally, a selection of dynamic clustering algorithms have been implemented and the performances compared using an available electric energy consumption load profile database. The results allow experts to easily evaluate how users consume energy, to assess trends and to predict future scenarios.The data analysed has been facilitated by the Spanish Distributor Iberdrola Electrical Distribution S.A. as part of the research project GAD (Active Management of the Demand), national project by DEVISE 2010 funded by the INGENIIO 2010 program and the CDTI (Centre for Industrial Technology Development), Business Public Entity dependent of the Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness of the Government of Spain.Benítez, I.; Diez, J. (2022). Automated Detection of Electric Energy Consumption Load Profile Patterns. Energies. 15(6):1-26. https://doi.org/10.3390/en1506217612615

Predictive modelling of building energy consumption based on a hybrid nature-inspired optimization algorithm

Overall energy consumption has expanded over the previous decades because of rapid population, urbanization and industrial growth rates. The high demand for energy leads to higher cost per unit of energy, which, can impact on the running costs of commercial and residential dwellings. Hence, there is a need for more effective predictive techniques that can be used to measure and optimize energy usage of large arrays of connected Internet of Things (IoT) devices and control points that constitute modern built environments. In this paper, we propose a lightweight IoT framework for predicting energy usage at a localized level for optimal configuration of building-wide energy dissemination policies. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) as a statistical liner model could be used for this purpose; however, it is unable to model the dynamic nonlinear relationships in nonstationary fluctuating power consumption data. Therefore, we have developed an improved hybrid model based on the ARIMA, Support Vector Regression (SVRs) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) to predict precision energy usage from supplied data. The proposed model is evaluated using power consumption data acquired from environmental actuator devices controlling a large functional space in a building. Results show that the proposed hybrid model out-performs other alternative techniques in forecasting power consumption. The approach is appropriate in building energy policy implementations due to its precise estimations of energy consumption and lightweight monitoring infrastructure which can lead to reducing the cost on energy consumption. Moreover, it provides an accurate tool to optimize the energy consumption strategies in wider built environments such as smart cities

Health monitoring of civil infrastructures by subspace system identification method: an overview

Structural health monitoring (SHM) is the main contributor of the future's smart city to deal with the need for safety, lower maintenance costs, and reliable condition assessment of structures. Among the algorithms used for SHM to identify the system parameters of structures, subspace system identification (SSI) is a reliable method in the time-domain that takes advantages of using extended observability matrices. Considerable numbers of studies have specifically concentrated on practical applications of SSI in recent years. To the best of author's knowledge, no study has been undertaken to review and investigate the application of SSI in the monitoring of civil engineering structures. This paper aims to review studies that have used the SSI algorithm for the damage identification and modal analysis of structures. The fundamental focus is on data-driven and covariance-driven SSI algorithms. In this review, we consider the subspace algorithm to resolve the problem of a real-world application for SHM. With regard to performance, a comparison between SSI and other methods is provided in order to investigate its advantages and disadvantages. The applied methods of SHM in civil engineering structures are categorized into three classes, from simple one-dimensional (1D) to very complex structures, and the detectability of the SSI for different damage scenarios are reported. Finally, the available software incorporating SSI as their system identification technique are investigated

AN APPROACH OF TRAFFIC FLOW PREDICTION USING ARIMA MODEL WITH FUZZY WAVELET TRANSFORM

It is essential for intelligent transportation systems to be capable of producing an accurate forecast of traffic flow in both the short and long terms. However, the counting datasets of traffic volume are non-stationary time series, which are integrally noisy. As a result, the accuracy of traffic prediction carried out on such unrefined data is reduced by the arbitrary components. A prior study shows that Box-Jenkins’ Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models convey demand of noise-free dataset for model construction. Therefore, this study proposes to overcome the noise issue by using a hybrid approach that combines the ARIMA model with fuzzy wavelet transform. In this approach, fuzzy rules are developed to categorize traffic datasets according to influencing factors such as the time of a day, the season of a year, and weather conditions. As the input of linear data series for ARIMA model needs to be converted into linear time series for traffic flow prediction, the discrete wavelet transform is applied to help separating the nonlinear and linear part of the time series along with denoised time series traffic data

A comparative study of DC servo motor parameter estimation using various techniques

A lot of research is being carried out on the Direct Current (DC) servo motor systems due to their excessive applications in various industrial sectors owing to their superior control performance. Parameters of the DC servo motor systems to be used in the simulation software are usually unknown or change with time and have to be determined accurately for obtaining the precise simulation response. In this paper, three different estimation techniques for multi-domain DC servo motor model parameters are discussed namely the Compare Coefficient Method, MATLAB Parameter Estimation Toolbox, and System Identification Toolbox. The paper performs a comparison of these methods to identify the one that gives the most accurate results. Experimental data has been used for the comparison of the estimated response from the techniques. The results show that the parameters obtained from the parameter estimation method give the most accurate simulation results with the least error against the experimental results. The study is significant for guiding researchers to prefer this method for estimation purposes of DC servo motor simulation model parameters. The presented technique, i.e. parameter estimation technique, is relatively less complex and requires less computational cost as compared to other techniques found in the literature

Optimal Determination for Cost of Electric Power Generation and Plant Capacity of Utilities

Optimisation of power generation and plant capacity are of primary significance for the improvement of power supplies, cost decisions and economics. This paper develops a robust predictive model for electric power generation and capacity utilisation and integrates the output from predictive models into a multi-objective model. The optimal solution was determined after comparing the performance of a Real Coding Genetic Algorithm (RCGA), Particle Swarm Optimisation (PSO) and Big- Bang Big-Crunch Algorithm (BB-BC). Testing of the proposed model was carried out using data from a Nigerian electric power generation plant with a capacity of about 5 million Megawatt Hours (MWH) to test the presented methodology. Our findings indicate that the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving average (ARIMA) model adequately predicts the power generation variables and compares favorably with literature results. The RCGA performed better than the BB-BC and PSO algorithms in terms of the quality of solutions for the proposed model. The outcome of this study suggests that computational complexity can be reduced in the evaluation of variables, yet producing a practical, simple and robust model

Statistical Learning and Stochastic Process for Robust Predictive Control of Vehicle Suspension Systems

Predictive controllers play an important role in today's industry because of their capability of verifying optimum control signals for nonlinear systems in a real-time fashion. Due to their mathematical properties, such controllers are best suited for control problems with constraints. Also, these interesting controllers can be equipped with different types of optimization and learning modules. The main goal of this thesis is to explore the potential of predictive controllers for a challenging automotive problem, known as active vehicle suspension control. In this context, it is intended to explore both modeling and optimization modules using different statistical methodologies ranging from statistical learning to random process control. Among the variants of predictive controllers, learning-based model predictive controller (LBMPC) is becoming more and more interesting to the researchers of control society due to its structural flexibility and optimal performance. The current investigation will contribute to the improvement of LBMPC by adopting different statistical learning strategies and forecasting methods to improve the efficiency and robustness of learning performed in LBMPC. Also, advanced probabilistic tools such as reinforcement learning, absorbing state stochastic process, graphical modelling, and bootstrapping are used to quantify different sources of uncertainty which can affect the performance of the LBMPC when it is used for vehicle suspension control. Moreover, a comparative study is conducted using gradient-based as well as deterministic and stochastic direct search optimization algorithms for calculating the optimal control commands. By combining the well-established control and statistical theories, a novel variant of LBMPC is developed which not only affords stability and robustness, but also surpasses a wide range of conventional controllers for the vehicle suspension control problem. The findings of the current investigation can be interesting to the researchers of automotive industry (in particular those interested in automotive control), as several open issues regarding the potential of statistical tools for improving the performance of controllers for vehicle suspension problem are addressed

Advanced Data Analytics Methodologies for Anomaly Detection in Multivariate Time Series Vehicle Operating Data

Early detection of faults in the vehicle operating systems is a research domain of high significance to sustain full control of the systems since anomalous behaviors usually result in performance loss for a long time before detecting them as critical failures. In other words, operating systems exhibit degradation when failure begins to occur. Indeed, multiple presences of the failures in the system performance are not only anomalous behavior signals but also show that taking maintenance actions to keep the system performance is vital. Maintaining the systems in the nominal performance for the lifetime with the lowest maintenance cost is extremely challenging and it is important to be aware of imminent failure before it arises and implement the best countermeasures to avoid extra losses. In this context, the timely anomaly detection of the performance of the operating system is worthy of investigation. Early detection of imminent anomalous behaviors of the operating system is difficult without appropriate modeling, prediction, and analysis of the time series records of the system. Data based technologies have prepared a great foundation to develop advanced methods for modeling and prediction of time series data streams. In this research, we propose novel methodologies to predict the patterns of multivariate time series operational data of the vehicle and recognize the second-wise unhealthy states. These approaches help with the early detection of abnormalities in the behavior of the vehicle based on multiple data channels whose second-wise records for different functional working groups in the operating systems of the vehicle. Furthermore, a real case study data set is used to validate the accuracy of the proposed prediction and anomaly detection methodologies