The modified Yule-Walker method for multidimensional infinite-variance periodic autoregressive model of order 1

The time series with periodic behavior, such as the periodic autoregressive (PAR) models belonging to the class of the periodically correlated processes, are present in various real applications. In the literature, such processes were considered in different directions, especially with the Gaussian-distributed noise. However, in most of the applications, the assumption of the finite-variance distribution seems to be too simplified. Thus, one can consider the extensions of the classical PAR model where the non-Gaussian distribution is applied. In particular, the Gaussian distribution can be replaced by the infinite-variance distribution, e.g. by the $\alpha-$stable distribution. In this paper, we focus on the multidimensional $\alpha-$stable PAR time series models. For such models, we propose a new estimation method based on the Yule-Walker equations. However, since for the infinite-variance case the covariance does not exist, thus it is replaced by another measure, namely the covariation. In this paper we propose to apply two estimators of the covariation measure. The first one is based on moment representation (moment-based) while the second one - on the spectral measure representation (spectral-based). The validity of the new approaches are verified using the Monte Carlo simulations in different contexts, including the sample size and the index of stability of the noise. Moreover, we compare the moment-based covariation-based method with spectral-based covariation-based technique. Finally, the real data analysis is presented.Comment: 31 pages, 17 figure

Data-based Parameter Estimation of Generalized Multidimensional Langevin Processes

The generalized Langevin equation is useful for modeling a wide range of physical processes. Unfortunately its parameters, especially the memory function, are difficult to determine for nontrivial processes. We establish relations between a time-discrete generalized Langevin model and discrete multivariate autoregressive (AR) or autoregressive moving average models (ARMA). This allows a wide range of discrete linear methods known from time series analysis to be applied. In particular, the determination of the memory function via the order of the respective AR or ARMA model is addressed. The method is illustrated on a one-dimensional test system and subsequently applied to the molecular dynamics time series of a biomolecule that exhibits an interesting relationship between the solvent method used, the respective molecular conformation, and the depth of the memory

Linear Prediction of Long-Range Dependent Time Series

We present two approaches for next step linear prediction of long memory time series. The first is based on the truncation of the Wiener-Kolmogorov predictor by restricting the observations to the last $k$ terms, which are the only available values in practice. Part of the mean squared prediction error comes from the truncation, and another part comes from the parametric estimation of the parameters of the predictor. By contrast, the second approach is non-parametric. An AR($k$) model is fitted to the long memory time series and we study the error made with this misspecified model

Asymptotic inference for nearly unstable AR(p) processes

In this paper nearly unstable AR( p) processes (in other words, models with characteristic roots near the unit circle) are studied. Our main aim is to describe the asymptotic behavior of the least-squares estimators of the coefficients. A convergence result is presented for the general complex-valued case, The limit distribution is given by the help of some continuous time AR processes. We apply the results for real-valued nearly unstable AR(p) models. In this case the limit distribution can be identified with the maximum likelihood estimator of the coefficients of the corresponding continuous time AR processes

Breathing pattern characterization in patients with respiratory and cardiac failure

El objetivo principal de la tesis es estudiar los patrones respiratorios de pacientes en proceso de extubación y pacientes con insuficiencia cardiaca crónica (CHF), a partirde la señal de flujo respiratorio. La información obtenida de este estudio puede contribuir a la comprensión de los procesos fisiológicos subyacentes,y ayudar en el diagnóstico de estos pacientes. Uno de los problemas más desafiantes en unidades de cuidados intensivos es elproceso de desconexión de pacientes asistidos mediante ventilación mecánica. Más del 10% de pacientes que se extuban tienen que ser reintubados antes de 48 horas. Una prueba fallida puede ocasionar distrés cardiopulmonar y una mayor tasa de mortalidad. Se caracterizó el patrón respiratorio y la interacción dinámica entre la frecuenciacardiaca y frecuencia respiratoria, para obtener índices no invasivos que proporcionen una mayor información en el proceso de destete y mejorar el éxito de la desconexión.Las señales de flujo respiratorio y electrocardiográfica utilizadas en este estudio fueron obtenidas durante 30 minutos aplicando la prueba de tubo en T. Se compararon94 pacientes que tuvieron éxito en el proceso de extubación (GE), 39 pacientes que fracasaron en la prueba al mantener la respiración espontánea (GF), y 21 pacientes quesuperaron la prueba con éxito y fueron extubados, pero antes de 48 horas tuvieron que ser reintubados (GR). El patrón respiratorio se caracterizó a partir de las series temporales. Se aplicó la dinámica simbólica conjunta a las series correspondientes a las frecuencias cardiaca y respiratoria, para describir las interacciones cardiorrespiratoria de estos pacientes. Técnicas de "clustering", ecualización del histograma, clasificación mediante máquinasde soporte vectorial (SVM) y técnicas de validación permitieron seleccionar el conjunto de características más relevantes. Se propuso una nueva métrica B (índice de equilibrio) para la optimización de la clasificación con muestras desbalanceadas. Basado en este nuevo índice, aplicando SVM, se seleccionaron las mejores características que mantenían el mejor equilibrio entre sensibilidad y especificidad en todas las clasificaciones. El mejor resultado se obtuvo considerando conjuntamente la precisión y el valor de B, con una clasificación del 80% entre los grupos GE y GF, con 6 características. Clasificando GE vs. el resto de los pacientes, el mejor resultado se obtuvo con 9 características, con 81%. Clasificando GR vs. GE y GR vs. el resto de pacientes la precisión fue del 83% y 81% con 9 y 10 características, respectivamente. La tasa de mortalidad en pacientes con CHF es alta y la estratificación de estospacientes en función del riesgo es uno de los principales retos de la cardiología contemporánea. Estos pacientes a menudo desarrollan patrones de respiraciónperiódica (PB) incluyendo la respiración de Cheyne-Stokes (CSR) y respiración periódica sin apnea. La respiración periódica en estos pacientes se ha asociadocon una mayor mortalidad, especialmente en pacientes con CSR. Por lo tanto, el estudio de estos patrones respiratorios podría servir como un marcador de riesgo y proporcionar una mayor información sobre el estado fisiopatológico de pacientes con CHF. Se pretende identificar la condición de los pacientes con CHFde forma no invasiva mediante la caracterización y clasificación de patrones respiratorios con PBy respiración no periódica (nPB), y patrón de sujetos sanos, a partir registros de 15minutos de la señal de flujo respiratorio. Se caracterizó el patrón respiratorio mediante un estudio tiempo-frecuencia estacionario y no estacionario, de la envolvente de la señal de flujo respiratorio. Parámetros relacionados con la potencia espectral de la envolvente de la señal presentaron losmejores resultados en la clasificación de sujetos sanos y pacientes con CHF con CSR, PB y nPB. Las curvas ROC validan los resultados obtenidos. Se aplicó la "correntropy" para una caracterización tiempo-frecuencia mas completa del patrón respiratorio de pacientes con CHF. La "corretronpy" considera los momentos estadísticos de orden superior, siendo más robusta frente a los "outliers". Con la densidad espectral de correntropy (CSD) tanto la frecuencia de modulación como la dela respiración se representan en su posición real en el eje frecuencial. Los pacientes con PB y nPB, presentan diferentesgrados de periodicidad en función de su condición, mientras que los sujetos sanos no tienen periodicidad marcada. Con único parámetro se obtuvieron resultados del 88.9% clasificando pacientes PB vs. nPB, 95.2% para CHF vs. sanos, 94.4% para nPB vs. sanos.The main objective of this thesis is to study andcharacterize breathing patterns through the respiratory flow signal applied to patients on weaning trials from mechanicalventilation and patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). The aim is to contribute to theunderstanding of the underlying physiological processes and to help in the diagnosis of these patients. One of the most challenging problems in intensive care units is still the process ofdiscontinuing mechanical ventilation, as over 10% of patients who undergo successfulT-tube trials have to be reintubated in less than 48 hours. A failed weaning trial mayinduce cardiopulmonary distress and carries a higher mortality rate. We characterize therespiratory pattern and the dynamic interaction between heart rate and breathing rate toobtain noninvasive indices that provide enhanced information about the weaningprocess and improve the weaning outcome. This is achieved through a comparison of 94 patients with successful trials (GS), 39patients who fail to maintain spontaneous breathing (GF), and 21 patients who successfully maintain spontaneous breathing and are extubated, but require thereinstitution of mechanical ventilation in less than 48 hours because they are unable tobreathe (GR). The ECG and the respiratory flow signals used in this study were acquired during T-tube tests and last 30 minute. The respiratory pattern was characterized by means of a number of respiratory timeseries. Joint symbolic dynamics applied to time series of heart rate and respiratoryfrequency was used to describe the cardiorespiratory interactions of patients during theweaning trial process. Clustering, histogram equalization, support vector machines-based classification (SVM) and validation techniques enabled the selection of the bestsubset of input features. We defined a new optimization metric for unbalanced classification problems, andestablished a new SVM feature selection method, based on this balance index B. The proposed B-based SVM feature selection provided a better balance between sensitivityand specificity in all classifications. The best classification result was obtained with SVM feature selection based on bothaccuracy and the balance index, which classified GS and GFwith an accuracy of 80%, considering 6 features. Classifying GS versus the rest of patients, the best result wasobtained with 9 features, 81%, and the accuracy classifying GR versus GS, and GR versus the rest of the patients was 83% and 81% with 9 and 10 features, respectively.The mortality rate in CHF patients remains high and risk stratification in these patients isstill one of the major challenges of contemporary cardiology. Patients with CHF oftendevelop periodic breathing patterns including Cheyne-Stokes respiration (CSR) and periodic breathing without apnea. Periodic breathing in CHF patients is associated withincreased mortality, especially in CSR patients. Therefore it could serve as a risk markerand can provide enhanced information about thepathophysiological condition of CHF patients. The main goal of this research was to identify CHF patients' condition noninvasively bycharacterizing and classifying respiratory flow patterns from patients with PB and nPBand healthy subjects by using 15-minute long respiratory flow signals. The respiratory pattern was characterized by a stationary and a nonstationary time-frequency study through the envelope of the respiratory flow signal. Power-related parameters achieved the best results in all of the classifications involving healthy subjects and CHF patients with CSR, PB and nPB and the ROC curves validated theresults obtained for the identification of different respiratory patterns. We investigated the use of correntropy for the spectral characterization of respiratory patterns in CHF patients. The correntropy function accounts for higher-order moments and is robust to outliers. Due to the former property, the respiratory and modulationfrequencies appear at their actual locations along the frequency axis in the correntropy spectral density (CSD). The best results were achieved with correntropy and CSD-related parameters that characterized the power in the modulation and respiration discriminant bands, definedas a frequency interval centred on the modulation and respiration frequency peaks,respectively. All patients, i.e. both PB and nPB, exhibit various degrees of periodicitydepending on their condition, whereas healthy subjects have no pronounced periodicity.This fact led to excellent results classifying PB and nPB patients 88.9%, CHF versushealthy 95.2%, and nPB versus healthy 94.4% with only one parameter.Postprint (published version