Bayesian Joint Chance Constrained Optimization: Approximations and Statistical Consistency

This paper considers data-driven chance-constrained stochastic optimization problems in a Bayesian framework. Bayesian posteriors afford a principled mechanism to incorporate data and prior knowledge into stochastic optimization problems. However, the computation of Bayesian posteriors is typically an intractable problem, and has spawned a large literature on approximate Bayesian computation. Here, in the context of chance-constrained optimization, we focus on the question of statistical consistency (in an appropriate sense) of the optimal value, computed using an approximate posterior distribution. To this end, we rigorously prove a frequentist consistency result demonstrating the convergence of the optimal value to the optimal value of a fixed, parameterized constrained optimization problem. We augment this by also establishing a probabilistic rate of convergence of the optimal value. We also prove the convex feasibility of the approximate Bayesian stochastic optimization problem. Finally, we demonstrate the utility of our approach on an optimal staffing problem for an M/M/c queueing model

Optimization and Applications

Proceedings of a workshop devoted to optimization problems, their theory and resolution, and above all applications of them. The topics covered existence and stability of solutions; design, analysis, development and implementation of algorithms; applications in mechanics, telecommunications, medicine, operations research

Operational Business Intelligence: Applying Decision Trees to Call Centers

In this paper we propose a decision tree based approach to modeling service levels in insurance call center operations. Our approach allows call center managers to determine which factors they control have the greatest impact on service levels (ex. handle time, average hold time, etc.). We also propose a sliding window to allow managers to interpret the effects changes in resource allocations have on service levels. To test our solution we analyze data collected from a large U.S. insurance company. The initial results provide good insight into factors affecting service levels

Doubly Stochastic Generative Arrivals Modeling

We propose a new framework named DS-WGAN that integrates the doubly stochastic (DS) structure and the Wasserstein generative adversarial networks (WGAN) to model, estimate, and simulate a wide class of arrival processes with general non-stationary and random arrival rates. Regarding statistical properties, we prove consistency and convergence rate for the estimator solved by the DS-WGAN framework under a non-parametric smoothness condition. Regarding computational efficiency and tractability, we address a challenge in gradient evaluation and model estimation, arised from the discontinuity in the simulator. We then show that the DS-WGAN framework can conveniently facilitate what-if simulation and predictive simulation for future scenarios that are different from the history. Numerical experiments with synthetic and real data sets are implemented to demonstrate the performance of DS-WGAN. The performance is measured from both a statistical perspective and an operational performance evaluation perspective. Numerical experiments suggest that, in terms of performance, the successful model estimation for DS-WGAN only requires a moderate size of representative data, which can be appealing in many contexts of operational management.Comment: updated version with more explanatory figure