Automatic Differentiation Variational Inference

Probabilistic modeling is iterative. A scientist posits a simple model, fits it to her data, refines it according to her analysis, and repeats. However, fitting complex models to large data is a bottleneck in this process. Deriving algorithms for new models can be both mathematically and computationally challenging, which makes it difficult to efficiently cycle through the steps. To this end, we develop automatic differentiation variational inference (ADVI). Using our method, the scientist only provides a probabilistic model and a dataset, nothing else. ADVI automatically derives an efficient variational inference algorithm, freeing the scientist to refine and explore many models. ADVI supports a broad class of models-no conjugacy assumptions are required. We study ADVI across ten different models and apply it to a dataset with millions of observations. ADVI is integrated into Stan, a probabilistic programming system; it is available for immediate use

A Geometric Variational Approach to Bayesian Inference

We propose a novel Riemannian geometric framework for variational inference in Bayesian models based on the nonparametric Fisher-Rao metric on the manifold of probability density functions. Under the square-root density representation, the manifold can be identified with the positive orthant of the unit hypersphere in L2, and the Fisher-Rao metric reduces to the standard L2 metric. Exploiting such a Riemannian structure, we formulate the task of approximating the posterior distribution as a variational problem on the hypersphere based on the alpha-divergence. This provides a tighter lower bound on the marginal distribution when compared to, and a corresponding upper bound unavailable with, approaches based on the Kullback-Leibler divergence. We propose a novel gradient-based algorithm for the variational problem based on Frechet derivative operators motivated by the geometry of the Hilbert sphere, and examine its properties. Through simulations and real-data applications, we demonstrate the utility of the proposed geometric framework and algorithm on several Bayesian models

Variational semi-blind sparse deconvolution with orthogonal kernel bases and its application to MRFM

We present a variational Bayesian method of joint image reconstruction and point spread function (PSF) estimation when the PSF of the imaging device is only partially known. To solve this semi-blind deconvolution problem, prior distributions are specified for the PSF and the 3D image. Joint image reconstruction and PSF estimation is then performed within a Bayesian framework, using a variational algorithm to estimate the posterior distribution. The image prior distribution imposes an explicit atomic measure that corresponds to image sparsity. Importantly, the proposed Bayesian deconvolution algorithm does not require hand tuning. Simulation results clearly demonstrate that the semi-blind deconvolution algorithm compares favorably with previous Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) version of myopic sparse reconstruction. It significantly outperforms mismatched non-blind algorithms that rely on the assumption of the perfect knowledge of the PSF. The algorithm is illustrated on real data from magnetic resonance force microscopy (MRFM)

Variational semi-blind sparse deconvolution with orthogonal kernel bases and its application to MRFM

We present a variational Bayesian method of joint image reconstruction and point spread function (PSF) estimation when the PSF of the imaging device is only partially known. To solve this semi-blind deconvolution problem, prior distributions are specified for the PSF and the 3D image. Joint image reconstruction and PSF estimation is then performed within a Bayesian framework, using a variational algorithm to estimate the posterior distribution. The image prior distribution imposes an explicit atomic measure that corresponds to image sparsity. Importantly, the proposed Bayesian deconvolution algorithm does not require hand tuning. Simulation results clearly demonstrate that the semi-blind deconvolution algorithm compares favorably with previous Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) version of myopic sparse reconstruction. It significantly outperforms mismatched non-blind algorithms that rely on the assumption of the perfect knowledge of the PSF. The algorithm is illustrated on real data from magnetic resonance force microscopy (MRFM)

Multiscale Dictionary Learning for Estimating Conditional Distributions

Nonparametric estimation of the conditional distribution of a response given high-dimensional features is a challenging problem. It is important to allow not only the mean but also the variance and shape of the response density to change flexibly with features, which are massive-dimensional. We propose a multiscale dictionary learning model, which expresses the conditional response density as a convex combination of dictionary densities, with the densities used and their weights dependent on the path through a tree decomposition of the feature space. A fast graph partitioning algorithm is applied to obtain the tree decomposition, with Bayesian methods then used to adaptively prune and average over different sub-trees in a soft probabilistic manner. The algorithm scales efficiently to approximately one million features. State of the art predictive performance is demonstrated for toy examples and two neuroscience applications including up to a million features

A low-cost variational-Bayes technique for merging mixtures of probabilistic principal component analyzers

International audienceMixtures of probabilistic principal component analyzers (MPPCA) have shown effective for modeling high-dimensional data sets living on nonlinear manifolds. Briefly stated, they conduct mixture model estimation and dimensionality reduction through a single process. This paper makes two contributions: first, we disclose a Bayesian technique for estimating such mixture models. Then, assuming several MPPCA models are available, we address the problem of aggregating them into a single MPPCA model, which should be as parsimonious as possible. We disclose in detail how this can be achieved in a cost-effective way, without sampling nor access to data, but solely requiring mixture parameters. The proposed approach is based on a novel variational-Bayes scheme operating over model parameters. Numerous experimental results and discussion are provided