Construction of weakly CUD sequences for MCMC sampling

In Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling considerable thought goes into constructing random transitions. But those transitions are almost always driven by a simulated IID sequence. Recently it has been shown that replacing an IID sequence by a weakly completely uniformly distributed (WCUD) sequence leads to consistent estimation in finite state spaces. Unfortunately, few WCUD sequences are known. This paper gives general methods for proving that a sequence is WCUD, shows that some specific sequences are WCUD, and shows that certain operations on WCUD sequences yield new WCUD sequences. A numerical example on a 42 dimensional continuous Gibbs sampler found that some WCUD inputs sequences produced variance reductions ranging from tens to hundreds for posterior means of the parameters, compared to IID inputs.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-EJS162 the Electronic Journal of Statistics (http://www.i-journals.org/ejs/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Conditional sampling for barrier option pricing under the LT method

We develop a conditional sampling scheme for pricing knock-out barrier options under the Linear Transformations (LT) algorithm from Imai and Tan (2006). We compare our new method to an existing conditional Monte Carlo scheme from Glasserman and Staum (2001), and show that a substantial variance reduction is achieved. We extend the method to allow pricing knock-in barrier options and introduce a root-finding method to obtain a further variance reduction. The effectiveness of the new method is supported by numerical results

Coarse Stability and Bifurcation Analysis Using Stochastic Simulators: Kinetic Monte Carlo Examples

We implement a computer-assisted approach that, under appropriate conditions, allows the bifurcation analysis of the coarse dynamic behavior of microscopic simulators without requiring the explicit derivation of closed macroscopic equations for this behavior. The approach is inspired by the so-called time-step per based numerical bifurcation theory. We illustrate the approach through the computation of both stable and unstable coarsely invariant states for Kinetic Monte Carlo models of three simple surface reaction schemes. We quantify the linearized stability of these coarsely invariant states, perform pseudo-arclength continuation, detect coarse limit point and coarse Hopf bifurcations and construct two-parameter bifurcation diagrams.Comment: 26 pages, 5 figure