Advanced and novel modeling techniques for simulation, optimization and monitoring chemical engineering tasks with refinery and petrochemical unit applications

Engineers predict, optimize, and monitor processes to improve safety and profitability. Models automate these tasks and determine precise solutions. This research studies and applies advanced and novel modeling techniques to automate and aid engineering decision-making. Advancements in computational ability have improved modeling software’s ability to mimic industrial problems. Simulations are increasingly used to explore new operating regimes and design new processes. In this work, we present a methodology for creating structured mathematical models, useful tips to simplify models, and a novel repair method to improve convergence by populating quality initial conditions for the simulation’s solver. A crude oil refinery application is presented including simulation, simplification tips, and the repair strategy implementation. A crude oil scheduling problem is also presented which can be integrated with production unit models. Recently, stochastic global optimization (SGO) has shown to have success of finding global optima to complex nonlinear processes. When performing SGO on simulations, model convergence can become an issue. The computational load can be decreased by 1) simplifying the model and 2) finding a synergy between the model solver repair strategy and optimization routine by using the initial conditions formulated as points to perturb the neighborhood being searched. Here, a simplifying technique to merging the crude oil scheduling problem and the vertically integrated online refinery production optimization is demonstrated. To optimize the refinery production a stochastic global optimization technique is employed. Process monitoring has been vastly enhanced through a data-driven modeling technique Principle Component Analysis. As opposed to first-principle models, which make assumptions about the structure of the model describing the process, data-driven techniques make no assumptions about the underlying relationships. Data-driven techniques search for a projection that displays data into a space easier to analyze. Feature extraction techniques, commonly dimensionality reduction techniques, have been explored fervidly to better capture nonlinear relationships. These techniques can extend data-driven modeling’s process-monitoring use to nonlinear processes. Here, we employ a novel nonlinear process-monitoring scheme, which utilizes Self-Organizing Maps. The novel techniques and implementation methodology are applied and implemented to a publically studied Tennessee Eastman Process and an industrial polymerization unit

AIRO 2016. 46th Annual Conference of the Italian Operational Research Society. Emerging Advances in Logistics Systems Trieste, September 6-9, 2016 - Abstracts Book

The AIRO 2016 book of abstract collects the contributions from the conference participants. The AIRO 2016 Conference is a special occasion for the Italian Operations Research community, as AIRO annual conferences turn 46th edition in 2016. To reflect this special occasion, the Programme and Organizing Committee, chaired by Walter Ukovich, prepared a high quality Scientific Programme including the first initiative of AIRO Young, the new AIRO poster section that aims to promote the work of students, PhD students, and Postdocs with an interest in Operations Research. The Scientific Programme of the Conference offers a broad spectrum of contributions covering the variety of OR topics and research areas with an emphasis on “Emerging Advances in Logistics Systems”. The event aims at stimulating integration of existing methods and systems, fostering communication amongst different research groups, and laying the foundations for OR integrated research projects in the next decade. Distinct thematic sections follow the AIRO 2016 days starting by initial presentation of the objectives and features of the Conference. In addition three invited internationally known speakers will present Plenary Lectures, by Gianni Di Pillo, Frédéric Semet e Stefan Nickel, gathering AIRO 2016 participants together to offer key presentations on the latest advances and developments in OR’s research

Fuzzy-Neural Cost Estimation for Engine Tests

This chapter discusses artificial computational intelligence methods as applied to cost prediction. We present the development of a suite of hybrid fuzzy-neural systems for predicting the cost of performing engine tests at NASA’s Stennis Space Center testing facilities. The system is composed of several adaptive network-based fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS), with or without neural subsystems. The output produced by each system in the suite is a rough order of magnitude (ROM) cost estimate for performing the engine test. Basic systems predict cost based solely on raw test data, whereas others use preprocessing of these data, such as principal components and locally linear embedding (LLE), before entering the fuzzy engines. Backpropagation neural networks and radial basis functions networks (RBFNs) are also used to aid in the cost prediction by merging the costs estimated by several ANFIS into a final cost estimate

Do Differences in Social Environments Explain Gender Differences in Recreational Walking across Neighbourhoods?

Within a city, gender differences in walking for recreation (WfR) vary significantly across neighbourhoods, although the reasons remain unknown. This cross-sectional study investigated the contribution of the social environment (SE) to explaining such variation, using 2009 data from the How Areas in Brisbane Influence healTh and AcTivity (HABITAT) study, including 7866 residents aged 42-67 years within 200 neighbourhoods in Brisbane, Australia (72.6% response rate). The analytical sample comprised 200 neighbourhoods and 6643 participants (mean 33 per neighbourhood, range 8-99, 95% CI 30.6-35.8). Self-reported weekly minutes of WfR were categorised into 0 and 1-840 mins. The SE was conceptualised through neighbourhood-level perceptions of social cohesion, incivilities and safety from crime. Analyses included multilevel binomial logistic regression with gender as main predictor, adjusting for age, socioeconomic position, residential self-selection and neighbourhood disadvantage. On average, women walked more for recreation than men prior to adjustment for covariates. Gender differences in WfR varied significantly across neighbourhoods, and the magnitude of the variation for women was twice that of men. The SE did not explain neighbourhood differences in the gender-WfR relationship, nor the between-neighbourhood variation in WfR for men or women. Neighbourhood-level factors seem to influence the WfR of men and women differently, with women being more sensitive to their environment, although Brisbane's SE did not seem such a factor

Data-driven optimization of bus schedules under uncertainties

Plusieurs sous-problèmes d’optimisation se posent lors de la planification des transports publics. Le problème d’itinéraires de véhicule (PIV) est l’un d’entre eux et consiste à minimiser les coûts opérationnels tout en assignant exactement un autobus par trajet planifié de sorte que le nombre d’autobus entreposé par dépôt ne dépasse pas la capacité maximale disponible. Bien que les transports publics soient sujets à plusieurs sources d’incertitude (à la fois endogènes et exogènes) pouvant engendrer des variations des temps de trajet et de la consommation d’énergie, le PIV et ses variantes sont la plupart du temps résolus de façon déterministe pour des raisons de résolubilité. Toutefois, cette hypothèse peut compromettre le respect de l’horaire établi lorsque les temps des trajets considérés sont fixes (c.-à-d. déterministes) et peut produire des solutions impliquant des politiques de gestion des batteries inadéquates lorsque la consommation d’énergie est aussi considérée comme fixe. Dans cette thèse, nous proposons une méthodologie pour mesurer la fiabilité (ou le respect de l’horaire établi) d’un service de transport public ainsi que des modèles mathématiques stochastiques et orientés données et des algorithmes de branch-and-price pour deux variantes de ce problème, à savoir le problème d’itinéraires de véhicule avec dépôts multiples (PIVDM) et le problème d’itinéraires de véhicule électrique (PIV-E). Afin d’évaluer la fiabilité, c.-à-d. la tolérance aux délais, de certains itinéraires de véhicule, nous prédisons d’abord la distribution des temps de trajet des autobus. Pour ce faire, nous comparons plusieurs modèles probabilistes selon leur capacité à prédire correctement la fonction de densité des temps de trajet des autobus sur le long terme. Ensuite, nous estimons à l'aide d'une simulation de Monte-Carlo la fiabilité des horaires d’autobus en générant des temps de trajet aléatoires à chaque itération. Nous intégrons alors le modèle probabiliste le plus approprié, celui qui est capable de prédire avec précision à la fois la véritable fonction de densité conditionnelle des temps de trajet et les retards secondaires espérés, dans nos modèles d'optimisation basés sur les données. Deuxièmement, nous introduisons un modèle pour PIVDM fiable avec des temps de trajet stochastiques. Ce problème d’optimisation bi-objectif vise à minimiser les coûts opérationnels et les pénalités associées aux retards. Un algorithme heuristique basé sur la génération de colonnes avec des sous-problèmes stochastiques est proposé pour résoudre ce problème. Cet algorithme calcule de manière dynamique les retards secondaires espérés à mesure que de nouvelles colonnes sont générées. Troisièmement, nous proposons un nouveau programme stochastique à deux étapes avec recours pour le PIVDM électrique avec des temps de trajet et des consommations d’énergie stochastiques. La politique de recours est conçue pour rétablir la faisabilité énergétique lorsque les itinéraires de véhicule produits a priori se révèlent non réalisables. Toutefois, cette flexibilité vient au prix de potentiels retards induits. Une adaptation d’un algorithme de branch-and-price est développé pour évaluer la pertinence de cette approche pour deux types d'autobus électriques à batterie disponibles sur le marché. Enfin, nous présentons un premier modèle stochastique pour le PIV-E avec dégradation de la batterie. Le modèle sous contrainte en probabilité proposé tient compte de l’incertitude de la consommation d’énergie, permettant ainsi un contrôle efficace de la dégradation de la batterie grâce au contrôle effectif de l’état de charge (EdC) moyen et l’écart de EdC. Ce modèle, combiné à l’algorithme de branch-and-price, sert d’outil pour balancer les coûts opérationnels et la dégradation de la batterie.The vehicle scheduling problem (VSP) is one of the sub-problems of public transport planning. It aims to minimize operational costs while assigning exactly one bus per timetabled trip and respecting the capacity of each depot. Even thought public transport planning is subject to various endogenous and exogenous causes of uncertainty, notably affecting travel time and energy consumption, the VSP and its variants are usually solved deterministically to address tractability issues. However, considering deterministic travel time in the VSP can compromise schedule adherence, whereas considering deterministic energy consumption in the electric VSP (E-VSP) may result in solutions with inadequate battery management. In this thesis, we propose a methodology for measuring the reliability (or schedule adherence) of public transport, along with stochastic and data-driven mathematical models and branch-and-price algorithms for two variations of this problem, namely the multi-depot vehicle scheduling problem (MDVSP) and the E-VSP. To assess the reliability of vehicle schedules in terms of their tolerance to delays, we first predict the distribution of bus travel times. We compare numerous probabilistic models for the long-term prediction of bus travel time density. Using a Monte Carlo simulation, we then estimate the reliability of bus schedules by generating random travel times at each iteration. Subsequently, we integrate the most suitable probabilistic model, capable of accurately predicting both the true conditional density function of the travel time and the expected secondary delays, into the data-driven optimization models. Second, we introduce a model for the reliable MDVSP with stochastic travel time minimizing both the operational costs and penalties associated with delays. To effectively tackle this problem, we propose a heuristic column generation-based algorithm, which incorporates stochastic pricing problems. This algorithm dynamically computes the expected secondary delays as new columns are generated. Third, we propose a new two-stage stochastic program with recourse for the electric MDVSP with stochastic travel time and energy consumption. The recourse policy aims to restore energy feasibility when a priori vehicle schedules are unfeasible, which may lead to delays. An adapted algorithm based on column generation is developed to assess the relevance of this approach for two types of commercially available battery electric buses. Finally, we present the first stochastic model for the E-VSP with battery degradation. The proposed chance-constraint model incorporates energy consumption uncertainty, allowing for effective control of battery degradation by regulating the average state-of-charge (SOC) and SoC deviation in each discharging and charging cycle. This model, in combination with a tailored branch-and-price algorithm, serves as a tool to strike a balance between operational costs and battery degradation

Warehouse Operations Revisted: Novel Challenges and Methods

Vis, I.F.A. [Promotor]Boter, J. [Promotor

A systematic review and meta-analysis of interventions based on metacognition and self-regulation in school-aged mathematics

Mathematics is an important gatekeeper for educational and professional opportunities and a useful tool for discovery and expression. Given previous research and theory demonstrating potential for metacognitive and self-regulated learning (MC/SRL) interventions to support mathematics achievement with diverse learners, a systematic review was conducted to evaluate their effectiveness within the years of general education, with pupils of ages three to 18. Appropriately-designed studies that were reported in English between 2005 and 2019 were included. Following a systematic search, with double-reviewing and expert consultation for consistency, 1,761 bibliographic items were screened, resulting in 60 included studies. Qualitative aspects of the designs, contexts, participants, and intervention activities were synthesised narratively. Posttest-only and adjusted, random effects meta-analyses were performed using a single mathematics achievement measure from each study. The results indicate a generally positive effect from the included interventions (combined Cohen’s d=0.46, SE=0.08, 95% CI=0.30 to 0.60). This represents a somewhat more modest effect compared with previous reviews in this area, possibly due to a greater range of included reports. No risk of publication bias was identified, reflecting the breadth and diversity of included studies, but efforts to mitigate heterogeneity were only partially successful. Interventions using structured problem-solving with metacognitive prompts were more effective than those not using it, while dissertations reported lower effects than journal articles. No differences were found based on participant age or intervention dose. Primary studies used a variety of assessments and differed on reporting of interventions and quality-related factors, and there remained substantial heterogeneity in the meta-analysis. Implications of this review for educational theory, research, and practice are discussed, with emphasis on reporting studies fully, using broad-scope, comparable assessments, and investing in comprehensive metacognitive and self-regulated learning interventions that can support lasting change in teaching and learning