Modeling Staple Food Consumption: Measuring the Trade Effect on Food Security for Chinese Grain Farmers

This paper derives a simulation model that examines the food security of the grain producing households in China in an open border model regime. We define a food inadequacy index (F.I.) to measure the change of the food security status under alternative scenarios of border liberalization for the households. We conclude that if opening the border of grain market is followed by a more variable grain price distribution, the food security status will deteriorate for the low-income households on average. However, if border liberalization is followed by a decrease in mean of the price distribution, even with a more variable distribution, the food security status improves.International Relations/Trade,

By How Much Does Conflict Reduce Financial Development?

Financial development is vulnerable to social conflict. Conflict reduces the demand for domestic currency as a medium of exchange and a store of value. Conflict also leads to poor quality governance, including weak regulation of the financial system, thereby undermining the sustainability of financial institutions. Conflict therefore reduces the social return to financial liberalization and other financial-sector reforms. This paper presents a theoretical model integrating the effects of conflict and financial liberalization, and then tests the model on data for 79 countries. Using an explanatory variable that measures the intensity of conflict (from low to high) the results show that conflict significantly reduces financial development, and that this negative effect increases as conflict intensifies. The paper concludes that conflict reduction is essential if financial reform is to have its full benefit for development

THE EFFECT OF FINANCIAL LIBERALIZATION ON IRAN'S ECONOMIC GROWTH

Abstract. In general, financial liberalization refers to any decision made by government of a country, in which the capital flows freely inside or outside the country, leading to increased domestic investment and economic growth. In this research, the relationship between financial liberalization and economic growth in Iran during the period of 1991-2012 was examined using vector auto-regression model (VAR). The KAOPEN financial liberalization index, inflation rate, and foreign direct investment were used as explanatory variables and economic growth was used as a dependent variable in the model of this study. The research results suggest a negative relationship between the economic growth variable and the variables of financial liberalization index (KAOPEN) and inflation. There is also a positive relationship between economicgrowth and foreign direct investment.Keywords: financial liberalization, economic growth, vector auto-regression model

Trade Liberalization, Financial Sector Reforms and Growth

This paper empirically investigates the impact of trade and financial liberalization on economic growth in Pakistan using annual observations over the period 1961-2005. The analysis is based on the bound testing approach of cointegration advanced by Pesaran et al (2001). The empirical findings suggest that both trade and financial policies play an important role in enhancing growth in Pakistan in the long-run. However, the short-run response of real deposit rate and trade policy variable is very low, suggesting further acceleration of reform process. The feedback coefficient suggests a very slow rate of adjustment towards long-run equilibrium. The estimated short-run dynamics are stable as indicated by CUSUMQ test.Financial Sector Reforms; Trade Liberalization; Growth; Pakistan

Trade Liberalization and Welfare Inequality: a Demand-Based Approach

There is strong evidence that different income groups consume di¤erent bundles of goods. This evidence suggests that trade liberalization can a¤ect welfare inequality within a country via changes in the relative prices of goods consumed by di¤erent income groups (the price effect). In this paper, I develop a framework that enables us to explore the role of the price effect in determining welfare inequality. There are two core elements in the model. First, I assume that heterogenous in income consumers share identical but nonhomothetic preferences. Secondly, I consider a monopolistic competition environment that leads to variable markups a¤ected by trade and trade costs. I �nd that trade liberalization does affect the prices of different goods differently and, as a result, can bene�fit some income classes more than others. In particular, I show that the relative welfare of the rich with respect to that of the poor has a hump shape as a function of trade costs

The sensitivity of trade flows to trade barriers

This study analyzes the sensitivity of trade flows to trade barriers from gravity equations, using different econometric techniques recently highlighted in the literature. Specifically, we compare a benchmark OLS fixed effects specification a la Feenstra (2002) with three emerging estimation methods: the standard Heckman correction for selection bias, to account for zero trade flows; the Eaton and Tamura (1994) Tobit estimator, to solve limited-dependent variable issues; and, finally, the Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood (PPML) technique, to correct for the presence of heteroskedasticity. Our gravity model includes trade among 193 exporter and 99 importer countries, in 18 food industry sectors. The paper achieves two goals: First it provides estimates of the elasticity of substitution obtained using the four estimation techniques; Second, it gives a dimension to the trade reduction effect induced by existing border protection, by simulating the effect of a full trade liberalization scenario on 18 food sectors. The estimates reveal interesting variations in the elasticity of substitution across products and procedures. The simulation indicates that trade liberalization will strongly increase food exports, especially from emerging and developing countries.Gravity model, Food Trade, Substitution elasticity, Trade liberalization, International Relations/Trade, F1, F13, F14,

Labour Markets, Education and Duality of Returns

The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of increased trade on wage inequality in developing countries, and whether a higher human capital stock moderates this effect. We look at the skilled-unskilled wage differential. When better educated societies open up their economies, increased trade is likely to induce less inequality on impact because the supply of skills better matches demand. But greater international exposure also brings about technological diffusion, further raising skilled labour demand. This may raise wage inequality, in contrast to the initial egalitarian level effect of human capital. We attempt to measure these two opposing forces. We also employ a broad set of indicators to measure trade liberalization policies as well as general openness, which is an outcome, and not a policy variable. We further examine what type of education most reduces inequality. Our findings suggest that countries with a higher level of initial human capital do well on the inequality front, but human capital which accrues through the trade liberalization channel has inegalitarian effects. Our results also have implications for the speed at which trade policies are liberalized, the implication being that better educated nations should liberalize faster.Integration, Trade Liberalization, Wage Inequality

Heterogeneous Productivity Response to Tariff Reduction: Evidence from Brazilian Manufacturing Firms

This paper studies the effects of trade liberalization on the evolution of firm productivity. The productivity of each firm was estimated using an unbalanced panel data of 4,484 Brazilian manufacturing firms from 1986 to 1998, following the procedure first proposed by Olley and Pakes (1996) and further developed by Levinsohn and Petrin (2003). First, the effect of nominal tariffs on firms' productivity levels is identified. After controlling for the endogeneity of nominal tariffs, the estimated coefficient for tariffs in the productivity equation turns out to be negative. Second, a measure of tariffs on inputs is added in the productivity equation. The coefficient associated with tariffs on inputs is also negative, and the inclusion of this new variable reduces the size of the estimated coefficient of nominal tariffs. Thus, it seems that, along with the increased competition, the new access to inputs that embody better foreign technology also contributes to productivity gains after trade liberalization. Third, it is shown that there is a huge degree of heterogeneity of responses to trade liberalization. The effect of the tariff reductions depends heavily on observed and unobserved characteristics of the firm.

FINANCIAL AND CURRENT ACCOUNT INTERRELATIONSHIP: AN EMPIRICAL TEST

Theoretically, financial account (FA) serves as a means of financing deficit in a country’s current account (CA). With the outburst of the rapid globalization and the liberalization of the capital markets, the function of FA could be a major cause of CA instability. This study empirically investigates the interrelationship between CA and the components of FA for the four crisis-affected Asian countries of Indonesia, Korea, the Philippines and Thailand. Empirical results show that deficit in CA mirror the surplus in FA supporting the theoretical foundation of balance of payment (BOP). We observed CA Granger causes FA suggesting that CA can be used as the control policy variable for the flows of capital in these countries. Therefore, the innovation of CA (whether deficit or surplus) would be important information for the liberalization and globalization of FA.current account, financial account, Asian, causality

Globalization and Labor Market Outcomes: Wage Bargaining, Search Frictions, and Firm Heterogeneity

We introduce search unemployment à la Pissarides into Melitz’ (2003) model of trade with heterogeneous firms. We allow wages to be individually or collectively bargained and analytically solve for the equilibrium. We find that the selection effect of trade influences labor market outcomes. Trade liberalization lowers unemployment and raises real wages as long as it improves aggregate productivity net of transport costs. We show that this condition is likely to be met by a reduction in variable trade costs or the entry of new trading countries. On the other hand, the gains from a reduction in fixed market access costs are more elusive. Calibrating the model shows that the positive impact of trade openness on employment is significant when wages are bargained at the individual level but much smaller when wages are bargained at the collective level.trade liberalization, unemployment, search model, firm heterogeneity