Prediction of Energy Consumption in Buildings Using Support Vector Machine

The energy consumption of buildings can directly affect the buildings users\u27 budget and their satisfaction with the investment in the property. Vice versa, buildings energy consumption has a social implication on the buildings\u27 users. Additionally, building energy consumption is connected with the buildings influence on the environment due to the CO2 emission. Thus, having a model for energy usage prediction is of crucial importance. Data for sixty real-built buildings were collected. Using support vector machine, a model was developed for prediction of energy consumption. The mean absolute percentage error of the model is 2,44% and the coefficient of determination of the model R2 is 94,72%, which expresses the global fit of the model. The model is useful for all participants in the designs of buildings, particularly in the early phases. It can serve as a decision support model during the process of selection of optimal building design

Learning and training techniques in fuzzy control for energy efficiency in buildings

A novel procedure for learning Fuzzy Controllers (FC) is proposed that concerns with energy efficiency issues in distributing electrical energy to heaters in an electrical energy heating system. Energy rationalization together with temperature control can significantly improve energy efficiency, by efficiently controlling electrical heating systems and electrical energy consumption. The novel procedure, which improves the training process, is designed to train the FC, as well as to run the control algorithm and to carry out energy distribution. Firstly, the dynamic thermal performance of different variables is mathematically modelled for each specific building type and climate zone. Secondly, an exploratory projection pursuit method is used to extract the relevant features. Finally, a supervised dynamic neural network model and identification techniques are applied to FC learning and training. The FC rule-set and parameter-set learning process is a multi-objective problem that minimizes both the indoor temperature error and the energy deficit in the house. The reliability of the proposed procedure is validated for a city in a winter zone in Spain

Evaluating the Performance of Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) Certified Facilities using Data-Driven Predictive Models for Energy and Occupant Satisfaction with Indoor Environmental Quality (IEQ)

abstract: Given the importance of buildings as major consumers of resources worldwide, several organizations are working avidly to ensure the negative impacts of buildings are minimized. The U.S. Green Building Council's (USGBC) Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) rating system is one such effort to recognize buildings that are designed to achieve a superior performance in several areas including energy consumption and indoor environmental quality (IEQ). The primary objectives of this study are to investigate the performance of LEED certified facilities in terms of energy consumption and occupant satisfaction with IEQ, and introduce a framework to assess the performance of LEED certified buildings. This thesis attempts to achieve the research objectives by examining the LEED certified buildings on the Arizona State University (ASU) campus in Tempe, AZ, from two complementary perspectives: the Macro-level and the Micro-level. Heating, cooling, and electricity data were collected from the LEED-certified buildings on campus, and their energy use intensity was calculated in order to investigate the buildings' actual energy performance. Additionally, IEQ occupant satisfaction surveys were used to investigate users' satisfaction with the space layout, space furniture, thermal comfort, indoor air quality, lighting level, acoustic quality, water efficiency, cleanliness and maintenance of the facilities they occupy. From a Macro-level perspective, the results suggest ASU LEED buildings consume less energy than regional counterparts, and exhibit higher occupant satisfaction than national counterparts. The occupant satisfaction results are in line with the literature on LEED buildings, whereas the energy results contribute to the inconclusive body of knowledge on energy performance improvements linked to LEED certification. From a Micro-level perspective, data analysis suggest an inconsistency between the LEED points earned for the Energy & Atmosphere and IEQ categories, on one hand, and the respective levels of energy consumption and occupant satisfaction on the other hand. Accordingly, this study showcases the variation in the performance results when approached from different perspectives. This contribution highlights the need to consider the Macro-level and Micro-level assessments in tandem, and assess LEED building performance from these two distinct but complementary perspectives in order to develop a more comprehensive understanding of the actual building performance.Dissertation/ThesisMasters Thesis Engineering 201

Machine learning for human-centered and value-sensitive building energy efficiency

Enhancing building energy efficiency is one of the best strategies to reduce energy consumption and associated CO2 emissions. Recent studies emphasized the importance of occupant behavior as a key means of enhancing building energy efficiency. However, it is also critical that while we strive to enhance the energy efficiency of buildings through improving occupant behavior, we still pay enough attention to occupant comfort and satisfaction. Towards this goal, this research proposes a data-driven machine-learning-based approach to behavioral building energy efficiency, which could help better understand and predict the impact of occupant behavior on building energy consumption and occupant comfort; and help optimize occupant behavior for both energy saving and occupant comfort. Three types of models were developed and tested – simulation-data-driven, real-data-driven, and hybrid. Accordingly, the research included five primary research tasks. First, the importance levels of energy-related human values (e.g., thermal comfort) to building occupants and their current satisfaction levels with these values were identified, in order to better understand the factors that are associated with higher/lower importance and/or satisfaction levels and identify the potential factors that could help predict occupant comfort. Second, a data sensing and occupant feedback collection plan was developed, in order to capture and monitor the indoor environmental conditions, energy consumption, energy-related occupant behavior, and occupant comfort in real buildings. Third, a set of buildings were simulated, in order to model the energy consumption of different buildings in different contexts – in terms of occupant behavior, building sizes, weather conditions, etc.; and a simulation-data-driven occupant-behavior-sensitive machine learning-based model, which learns from simulation data, was developed for predicting hourly cooling energy consumption. Fourth, a set of real-data-driven occupant-behavior-sensitive machine learning-based models, which learn from real data (data collected from real buildings and real occupants), were developed for predicting hourly cooling and lighting energy consumption and thermal and visual occupant comfort; and a genetic algorithm-based optimization model for determining the optimal occupant behavior that can simultaneously reduce energy consumption and improve occupant comfort was developed. Compared to the simulation-data-driven approach, the real-data-driven approach aims to better capture and model the real-life behavior and comfort of occupants and the real-life energy-consumption patterns of buildings. Although successful in this regard, the resulting models may not generalize well outside of their training range. Fifth, a hybrid, occupant-behavior-sensitive machine learning-based model, which learns from both simulation data and real data, was developed for predicting hourly cooling and lighting energy consumption. The hybrid approach aims to overcome the limitations of both simulation-data-driven and real-data-driven approaches – especially the limited ability to capture occupant behavior and real-life consumption patterns in simulation-data-driven approaches and the limited generalizability of real-data-driven approaches to different cases – by learning from both types of data simultaneously. The experimental results show the potential of the proposed approach. The energy consumption prediction models achieved high prediction performance, and the thermal and visual comfort models were able to accurately represent the individual and group comfort levels. The optimization results showed potential behavioral energy savings in the range of 11% and 22%, with significant improvement in occupant comfort

Net-zero Building Cluster Simulations and On-line Energy Forecasting for Adaptive and Real-Time Control and Decisions

Buildings consume about 41.1% of primary energy and 74% of the electricity in the U.S. Moreover, it is estimated by the National Energy Technology Laboratory that more than 1/4 of the 713 GW of U.S. electricity demand in 2010 could be dispatchable if only buildings could respond to that dispatch through advanced building energy control and operation strategies and smart grid infrastructure. In this study, it is envisioned that neighboring buildings will have the tendency to form a cluster, an open cyber-physical system to exploit the economic opportunities provided by a smart grid, distributed power generation, and storage devices. Through optimized demand management, these building clusters will then reduce overall primary energy consumption and peak time electricity consumption, and be more resilient to power disruptions. Therefore, this project seeks to develop a Net-zero building cluster simulation testbed and high fidelity energy forecasting models for adaptive and real-time control and decision making strategy development that can be used in a Net-zero building cluster. The following research activities are summarized in this thesis: 1) Development of a building cluster emulator for building cluster control and operation strategy assessment. 2) Development of a novel building energy forecasting methodology using active system identification and data fusion techniques. In this methodology, a systematic approach for building energy system characteristic evaluation, system excitation and model adaptation is included. The developed methodology is compared with other literature-reported building energy forecasting methods; 3) Development of the high fidelity on-line building cluster energy forecasting models, which includes energy forecasting models for buildings, PV panels, batteries and ice tank thermal storage systems 4) Small scale real building validation study to verify the performance of the developed building energy forecasting methodology. The outcomes of this thesis can be used for building cluster energy forecasting model development and model based control and operation optimization. The thesis concludes with a summary of the key outcomes of this research, as well as a list of recommendations for future work.Ph.D., Civil Engineering -- Drexel University, 201

Building condition monitoring

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, 2010.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.Includes bibliographical references (p. 201-206).The building sector of the United States currently consumes over 40% of the United States primary energy supply. Estimates suggest that between 5 and 30% of any building's annual energy consumption is unknowingly wasted due to pathologically malfunctioning lighting and comfort conditioning systems. This thesis is focused on developing analytical methods embodied within useful software tools to quickly identify and evaluate those building system faults that cause large building energy inefficiencies. The technical contributions of this work include expert rules that adapt to HVAC equipment scale and operation, a general framework for applying probabilistic inference to HVAC fault detection and evaluation, and methods for sorting fault signals according to userdefined interests such as annual cost of energy inefficiencies. These contributions are particularly unique in their treatment of model and measurement uncertainty within the fault inference, and the careful consideration of user interests in fault evaluation. As a first step to developing this general framework for fault detection, I targeted first order faults such as simultaneous heating and cooling and imbalanced air flows within several large air-handling units in three buildings on the MIT campus. Experiments included the purposeful implementation of mechanical and software control programming faults on otherwise fault-free equipment. Between the five pieces of equipment, the software system successfully identified all previously known and experimentally implemented faults, as well as additional faults that had not been previously identified or imposed during the experiment. User testing and experiments show that embracing uncertainty within HVAC fault detection and evaluation is not only paramount to judicious fault inference but it is also central to gaining the trust and buy-in of system users who ultimately can apply fault detection information to actually fix and improve building operations.by Stephen Samouhos.Ph.D

Forecasting of uv-vis spectrometry time series for online water quality monitoring in operating urban sewer systems

El monitoreo de contaminantes en sistemas de saneamiento urbano es generalmente realizado por medio de campañas de muestreo, las muestras deben ser transportadas, almacenadas y analizadas en laboratorio. Sin embargo, los desarrollos en óptica y electrónica han permitido su fusión y aplicación en la espectrometría UV-Vis. Los sensores UV-Vis tienen como propósito determinar la dinámica de las cargas de materia orgánica (Demanda Química de Oxigeno DQO y Demanda Bioquímica de Oxigeno DBO5), nitratos, nitritos y Sólidos Suspendidos Totales (SST). Adicionalmente a los métodos aplicados para la calibración de los sensores y el análisis las series de tiempo de los espectros de absorbancias UV-Vis, es necesario desarrollar métodos de pronóstico con el fin de ser utilizada en control de monitoreo en línea en tiempo real. La información proveniente de los datos recolectados puede ser utilizada para la toma de decisiones y en aplicaciones de control de tiempo real. Realizar pronósticos es importante en procesos de toma de decisiones. Por lo tanto, el objetivo de este trabajo de investigación fue desarrollar uno o varios métodos de pronóstico que puedan ser aplicados a series de tiempo de espectrometría UV-Vis para el monitoreo en línea de la calidad de agua en sistemas urbanos de saneamiento en operación. Cinco series de tiempo de absorbancia UV-Vis obtenidas en línea en diferentes sitios fueron utilizadas, con un total de 5705 espectros de absorbancia UV-Vis: cuatro sitios experimentales en Colombia (Planta de Tratamiento de Aguas Residuales (PTAR) El-Salitre, PTAR San Fernando, Estación Elevadora de Gibraltar y un Humedal Construido/Tanque de Almacenamiento) y un sitio en Austria (Graz-West R05 Catchment outlet). El proceso propuesto completo consta de etapas a ser aplicadas a las series de tiempo de absorbancia UV-Vis y son: (i) entradas, series de tiempo de absorbancia UV-Vis,(ii) pre-procesamiento de las series de tiempo, análisis de outliers, completar los valores ausentes y reducción de la dimensionalidad,y (iii) procedimientos de pronóstico y evaluación de los resultados. La metodología propuesta fue aplicada a la series de tiempo con diferentes características (absorbancia), esta consiste del enventaneo Winsorising como paso para la remoción de outliers y la aplicación de la transformada discreta de Fourier (DFT) para reemplazar valores ausentes. Los nuevos valores reemplazando o los outliers o los valores ausentes presentan la misma o al menos la misma forma de la serie de tiempo original, permitiendo una visión macro en la coherencia de la serie de tiempo. La reducción de la dimensionalidad en las series de tiempo de absorbancia multivariadas permite obtener menor número de variables a ser procesadas: el análisis por componentes principales (PCA) como transformación lineal captura más del 97% de la variabilidad en cada serie de tiempo (en un rango de una a seis, dependiendo del comportamiento de la series de tiempo absorbancia) y el proceso de Clustering (k-means) combinado con cadenas de Markov. Los procedimientos de pronóstico basados en señales periódicas como la DFT, Chebyshev, Legendre y Regresión Polinomial fueron aplicados y estos pueden capturar el comportamiento dinámico de las series de tiempo. Algunas técnicas de aprendizaje de máquina fueron probadas y fue posible capturar el comportamiento de las series de tiempo en la etapa de calibración, los valores de pronóstico pueden seguir el comportamiento general comparado con los valores observados (excepto ANFIS, GA y Filtro de Kalman). Por lo tanto, ANN y SVM tiene buen rendimiento de pronóstico para la primer parte del horizonte de pronóstico (2 horas). La evaluación de cada metodología de pronóstico fue realizada utilizando cuatro indicadores estadísticos tales como porcentaje absoluto de error (APE), incertidumbre extendida (EU), conjunto de valores dentro del intervalo de confianza (CI) y suma de valores de incertidumbre extendida más el conjunto de valores dentro del intervalo de confianza. El rendimiento de los indicadores provee información acerca de los resultados de pronóstico multivariado con el fin de estimar y evaluar los tiempos de pronóstico para cierta metodología de pronóstico y determinar cuál metodología de pronóstico es mejor adaptada a diferentes rangos de longitudes de onda (espectros de absorbancia) para cada serie de tiempo de absorbancia UV-Vis en cada sitio de estudio. Los resultados en la comparación de las diferentes metodologías de pronóstico, resaltan que no es posible obtener la mejor metodología de pronóstico, porque todas las metodologías de pronóstico propuestas podrían generar un amplio número de valores que permitirán complementar cada una con las otras para diferentes pasos de tiempo de pronóstico y en diferentes rangos del espectro (UV y/o Vis). Por lo tanto, es propuesto un sistema híbrido que es basado en siete metodologías de pronóstico. Así, los valores de los espectros de absorbancia pronosticados fueron transformados a los correspondientes indicadores de calidad de agua (WQI) para utilización en la práctica. Los resultados de pronóstico multivariado presentan valores bajos de APE comparados con los resultados de pronóstico univariado utilizando directamente los valores WQI observados. Estos resultados, probablemente, son obtenidos porque el pronóstico multivariado incluye la correlación presente en todo el rango de los espectros de absorbancia (se captura de forma completa o al menos gran parte de la variabilidad de las series de tiempo),una longitud de onda interfiere con otra u otras longitudes de onda. Finalmente, los resultados obtenidos para el humedal construido/tanque de almacenamiento presentan que es posible obtener apreciables resultados de pronóstico en términos de tiempos de detección para eventos de lluvia. Adicionalmente, la inclusión de variables como escorrentía (nivel de agua para este caso) mejora substancialmente los resultados de pronóstico de la calidad del agua. El monitoreo de contaminantes en sistemas de saneamiento urbano es generalmente realizado por medio de campañas de muestreo, las muestras deben ser transportadas, almacenadas y analizadas en laboratorio. Sin embargo, los desarrollos en óptica y electrónica han permitido su fusión y aplicación en la espectrometría UV-Vis. Los sensores UV-Vis tienen como propósito determinar la dinámica de las cargas de materia orgánica (Demanda Química de Oxigeno DQO y Demanda Bioquímica de Oxigeno DBO5), nitratos, nitritos y Sólidos Suspendidos Totales (SST). Adicionalmente a los métodos aplicados para la calibración de los sensores y el análisis las series de tiempo de los espectros de absorbancias UV-Vis, es necesario desarrollar métodos de pronóstico con el fin de ser utilizada en control de monitoreo en línea en tiempo real. La información proveniente de los datos recolectados puede ser utilizada para la toma de decisiones y en aplicaciones de control de tiempo real. Realizar pronósticos es importante en procesos de toma de decisiones. Por lo tanto, el objetivo de este trabajo de investigación fue desarrollar uno o varios métodos de pronóstico que puedan ser aplicados a series de tiempo de espectrometría UV-Vis para el monitoreo en línea de la calidad de agua en sistemas urbanos de saneamiento en operación. Cinco series de tiempo de absorbancia UV-Vis obtenidas en línea en diferentes sitios fueron utilizadas, con un total de 5705 espectros de absorbancia UV-Vis: cuatro sitios experimentales en Colombia (Planta de Tratamiento de Aguas Residuales (PTAR) El-Salitre, PTAR San Fernando, Estación Elevadora de Gibraltar y un Humedal Construido/Tanque de Almacenamiento) y un sitio en Austria (Graz-West R05 Catchment outlet). El proceso propuesto completo consta de etapas a ser aplicadas a las series de tiempo de absorbancia UV-Vis y son: (i) entradas, series de tiempo de absorbancia UV-Vis,(ii) pre-procesamiento de las series de tiempo, análisis de outliers, completar los valores ausentes y reducción de la dimensionalidad,y (iii) procedimientos de pronóstico y evaluación de los resultados. La metodología propuesta fue aplicada a la series de tiempo con diferentes características (absorbancia), esta consiste del enventaneo Winsorising como paso para la remoción de outliers y la aplicación de la transformada discreta de Fourier (DFT) para reemplazar valores ausentes. Los nuevos valores reemplazando o los outliers o los valores ausentes presentan la misma o al menos la misma forma de la serie de tiempo original, permitiendo una visión macro en la coherencia de la serie de tiempo. La reducción de la dimensionalidad en las series de tiempo de absorbancia multivariadas permite obtener menor número de variables a ser procesadas: el análisis por componentes principales (PCA) como transformación lineal captura más del 97% de la variabilidad en cada serie de tiempo (en un rango de una a seis, dependiendo del comportamiento de la series de tiempo absorbancia) y el proceso de Clustering (k-means) combinado con cadenas de Markov. Los procedimientos de pronóstico basados en señales periódicas como la DFT, Chebyshev, Legendre y Regresión Polinomial fueron aplicados y estos pueden capturar el comportamiento dinámico de las series de tiempo. Algunas técnicas de aprendizaje de máquina fueron probadas y fue posible capturar el comportamiento de las series de tiempo en la etapa de calibración, los valores de pronóstico pueden seguir el comportamiento general comparado con los valores observados (excepto ANFIS, GA y Filtro de Kalman). Por lo tanto, ANN y SVM tiene buen rendimiento de pronóstico para la primer parte del horizonte de pronóstico (2 horas). La evaluación de cada metodología de pronóstico fue realizada utilizando cuatro indicadores estadísticos tales como porcentaje absoluto de error (APE), incertidumbre extendida (EU), conjunto de valores dentro del intervalo de confianza (CI) y suma de valores de incertidumbre extendida más el conjunto de valores dentro del intervalo de confianza. El rendimiento de los indicadores provee información acerca de los resultados de pronóstico multivariado con el fin de estimar y evaluar los tiempos de pronóstico para cierta metodología de pronóstico y determinar cuál metodología de pronóstico es mejor adaptada a diferentes rangos de longitudes de onda (espectros de absorbancia) para cada serie de tiempo de absorbancia UV-Vis en cada sitio de estudio. Los resultados en la comparación de las diferentes metodologías de pronóstico, resaltan que no es posible obtener la mejor metodología de pronóstico, porque todas las metodologías de pronóstico propuestas podrían generar un amplio número de valores que permitirán complementar cada una con las otras para diferentes pasos de tiempo de pronóstico y en diferentes rangos del espectro (UV y/o Vis). Por lo tanto, es propuesto un sistema híbrido que es basado en siete metodologías de pronóstico. Así, los valores de los espectros de absorbancia pronosticados fueron transformados a los correspondientes indicadores de calidad de agua (WQI) para utilización en la práctica. Los resultados de pronóstico multivariado presentan valores bajos de APE comparados con los resultados de pronóstico univariado utilizando directamente los valores WQI observados. Estos resultados, probablemente, son obtenidos porque el pronóstico multivariado incluye la correlación presente en todo el rango de los espectros de absorbancia (se captura de forma completa o al menos gran parte de la variabilidad de las series de tiempo),una longitud de onda interfiere con otra u otras longitudes de onda. Finalmente, los resultados obtenidos para el humedal construido/tanque de almacenamiento presentan que es posible obtener apreciables resultados de pronóstico en términos de tiempos de detección para eventos de lluvia. Adicionalmente, la inclusión de variables como escorrentía (nivel de agua para este caso) mejora substancialmente los resultados de pronóstico de la calidad del agua.The monitoring of pollutants in urban sewer systems is generally conducted by sampling campaigns, and the resulting samples must be transported, stored and analyzed in laboratory. However, the developments in optics and electronics have enabled the merge of them into the UV-Vis Spectrometry. UV-Vis probes have the purpose of determining the dynamics of loads of organic materials (i.e. Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) and Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD5)), nitrates, nitrites and Total Suspended Solids (TSS). In addition to the methods used for the calibration of the probes and the analysis of the time series of UV-Vis absorbance spectra, it is necessary to develop forecasting methods in order to use the online control monitoring in real time. The information from the collected data can also be used for decision making purposes and for real-time control applications. Forecasting is important for decision-making processes. Therefore, the objective of this research work was to develop either a forecasting method or forecasting methods applied to UV-Vis spectrometry time series data for online water quality monitoring in operating urban sewer systems. Five UV-Vis Absorbance time series collected at different on-line measurement sites were used, for a total of 5705 UV-Vis absorbance spectra data: four sites in Colombia (El-Salitre Wastewater Treatment Plant-WWTP, San Fernando WWTP, Pumping Station (PS) sewage called Gibraltar and constructed-wetland/reservoir-tank (CWRT)) and one site in Austria (Graz-West R05 Catchment outlet). The complete process proposed to be applied to UV-Vis absorbance time series has several stages and these are: (i) inputs, the UV-Vis absorbance time series,(ii) the time series pre-processing, outliers analysis, complete missing values and time series dimensionality reduction,and (iii) forecasting procedures and evaluation of results. The methodology proposed was applied to the time series with different characteristics (absorbance), this consists of Winsorising as a step in outlier removal and the application of the Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT) to complete the missing values. The new values replaced either outliers or missing values present the same, or almost the same, shape as the original time series, granted the macro vision of the time series coherence. Dimensionality reduction of multivariate absorbance time series allows to have less variables to be processed: PCA linear transformation captures more than 97% of variability for each time series (PC ranging from one to six, depending on absorbance time series behavior), and Clustering process (k-means) combined with Markov Chains. Forecasting procedures based on periodic signals as DFT, Chebyshev, Legendre and Polynomial Regression were applied and they can capture the dynamic behaviour of the time series. Several Machine Learning technics were tested and it was possible to capture the behaviour of the time series at calibration stage, the forecasting obtained valúes can follow the general behaviour compared with observed valúes (with exception of ANFIS, GA and Kalman Filter). Therefore, ANN and SVM have good forecasting performances for first part of forecasting horizon (2 hours). The evaluation of each forecasting methodology was done using four statistic indicators as Absolute Percentage Error (APE), Extended Uncertainty (EU), Set of observed values within Confidence Interval (CI) and sum of EU and Set of observed values within CI. The performance indicators provided valuable information about multivariate forecasting results to estimate and evaluate the forecasting time for a given forecasting methodology and determine which forecasting methodology is best suited for different wavelength ranges (absorbance spectra) at each study site s UV-Vis absorbance time series. Results from different comparison of several forecasting methodologies, highlight that there is not possibility to have a best forecasting methodology among the proposed ones, because all of them could provide a wide forecasting values that would complemented each other for different forecasting time steps and spectra range (UV and/or Vis). Therefore, it is proposed a hybrid system that is based on seven forecasting methodologies. Thus, the forecasted absorbance spectra were transformed to Water Quality Indicators (WQI) for practical uses. The multivariate forecasting results show lower APE values compared to the univariate forecasting results (APE values) using the observed WQI. These results, probably, were obtained because multivariate forecasting includes the correlation presented at whole absorbance spectra range (captures complete or at least great part of time series variability),one wavelength interferes with another and/or other wavelengths. Finally, the results obtained for a constructed-wetland/reservoir-tank system show that it is possible to obtain valuable forecasting results in terms of time detection for some rainfall events. In addition, the inclusion of runoff variables (water level in this case) improves the water quality forecasting results.Doctor en IngenieríaDoctorad

Vapnik's learning theory applied to energy consumption forecasts in residential buildings

International audienceFor the purpose of energy conservation, we present in this paper an introduction to the use of Support Vector (SV) Learning Machines used as a data mining tool applied to buildings energy consumption data from a measurement campaign. Experiments using a SVM-based software tool for the prediction of the electrical consumption of a residential building is performed. The data included one year and three months of daily recordings of electrical consumption and climate data such as temperatures and humidities. The learning stage was done for a first part of the data, the predictions were done for the last month. Performances of the model and contributions of significant factors were also derived. The results show good performances for the model. Besides the second experiment consists in model re-estimations on a one-year daily recording dataset lagged at one-day time intervals in such a way that we derive temporal series of influencing factors weights along with model performance criteria. Finally we introduce a perturbation in one of the influencing variable to detect a model change. Comparing contributing weights with and without the perturbation, the sudden contributing weight change could have diagnosed the perturbation. The important point is the ease of the production of many models. This method announces future research work in the exploitation of possibilities of this "model factory"