9,193 research outputs found

    Value of weather observations for reduction of forest fire impact on population

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    In this paper we investigate how improvements in the weather observation systems help to reduce forest fires impact on population by targeting and monitoring places where ripe fires are likely to occur. For the purposes of population impact assessment we suggest a relevant index. In our model the air patrolling schedule is determined by the Nesterov index, which is calculated from observed weather data sets at different spatial resolutions. The reduction of fire impact on population, associated with utilization of finer grid, indicates the benefits of more precise weather observations. We also explore the sensitivity of the forest fires model with respect to the quality of input data while taking into account the multitude of sources providing weather observations. Our model shows that approximately 90% of the feasible reduction of fire impact on population can be achieved by refining weather observations in 30% of the area of interest

    ECONOMICALLY OPTIMAL WILDFIRE INTERVENTION REGIMES

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    Wildfires in the United States result in total damages and costs that are likely to exceed billions of dollars annually. Land managers and policy makers propose higher rates of prescribed burning and other kinds of vegetation management to reduce amounts of wildfire and the risks of catastrophic losses. A wildfire public welfare maximization function, using a wildfire production function estimated using a time series model of a panel of Florida counties, is employed to simulate the publicly optimal level of prescribed burning in an example county in Florida (Volusia). Evaluation of the production function reveals that prescribed fire is not associated with reduced catastrophic wildfire risks in Volusia County Florida, indicating a short-run elasticity of -0.16 and a long-run elasticity of wildfire with respect to prescribed fire of -0.07. Stochastic dominance is used to evaluate the optimal amount of prescribed fire most likely to maximize a measure of public welfare. Results of that analysis reveal that the optimal amount of annual prescribed fire is about 3 percent (9,000 acres/year) of the total forest area, which is very close to the actual average amount of prescribed burning (12,700 acres/year) between 1994-99.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

    Valuing adaptation under rapid change

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    AbstractThe methods used to plan adaptation to climate change have been heavily influenced by scientific narratives of gradual change and economic narratives of marginal adjustments to that change. An investigation of the theoretical aspects of how the climate changes suggests that scientific narratives of climate change are socially constructed, biasing scientific narratives to descriptions of gradual as opposed rapid, non-linear change. Evidence of widespread step changes in recent climate records and in model projections of future climate is being overlooked because of this. Step-wise climate change has the potential to produce rapid increases in extreme events that can cross institutional, geographical and sectoral domains.Likewise, orthodox economics is not well suited to the deep uncertainty faced under climate change, requiring a multi-faceted approach to adaptation. The presence of tangible and intangible values range across five adaptation clusters: goods; services; capital assets and infrastructure; social assets and infrastructure; and natural assets and infrastructure. Standard economic methods have difficulty in giving adequate weight to the different types of values across these clusters. They also do not account well for the inter-connectedness of impacts and subsequent responses between agents in the economy. As a result, many highly-valued aspects of human and environmental capital are being overlooked.Recent extreme events are already pressuring areas of public policy, and national strategies for emergency response and disaster risk reduction are being developed as a consequence. However, the potential for an escalation of total damage costs due to rapid change requires a coordinated approach at the institutional level, involving all levels of government, the private sector and civil society.One of the largest risks of maladaptation is the potential for un-owned risks, as risks propagate across domains and responsibility for their management is poorly allocated between public and private interests, and between the roles of the individual and civil society. Economic strategies developed by the disaster community for disaster response and risk reduction provide a base to work from, but many gaps remain.We have developed a framework for valuing adaptation that has the following aspects: the valuation of impacts thus estimating values at risk, the evaluation of different adaptation options and strategies based on cost, and the valuation of benefits expressed as a combination of the benefits of avoided damages and a range of institutional values such as equity, justice, sustainability and profit.The choice of economic methods and tools used to assess adaptation depends largely on the ability to constrain uncertainty around problems (predictive uncertainty) and solutions (outcome uncertainty). Orthodox methods can be used where both are constrained, portfolio methodologies where problems are constrained and robust methodologies where solutions are constrained. Where both are unconstrained, process-based methods utilising innovation methods and adaptive management are most suitable. All methods should involve stakeholders where possible.Innovative processes methods that enable transformation will be required in some circumstances, to allow institutions, sectors and communities to prepare for anticipated major change.Please cite this report as: Jones, RN, Young, CK, Handmer, J, Keating, A, Mekala, GD, Sheehan, P 2013 Valuing adaptation under rapid change, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast, pp. 192.The methods used to plan adaptation to climate change have been heavily influenced by scientific narratives of gradual change and economic narratives of marginal adjustments to that change. An investigation of the theoretical aspects of how the climate changes suggests that scientific narratives of climate change are socially constructed, biasing scientific narratives to descriptions of gradual as opposed rapid, non-linear change. Evidence of widespread step changes in recent climate records and in model projections of future climate is being overlooked because of this. Step-wise climate change has the potential to produce rapid increases in extreme events that can cross institutional, geographical and sectoral domains.Likewise, orthodox economics is not well suited to the deep uncertainty faced under climate change, requiring a multi-faceted approach to adaptation. The presence of tangible and intangible values range across five adaptation clusters: goods; services; capital assets and infrastructure; social assets and infrastructure; and natural assets and infrastructure. Standard economic methods have difficulty in giving adequate weight to the different types of values across these clusters. They also do not account well for the inter-connectedness of impacts and subsequent responses between agents in the economy. As a result, many highly-valued aspects of human and environmental capital are being overlooked.Recent extreme events are already pressuring areas of public policy, and national strategies for emergency response and disaster risk reduction are being developed as a consequence. However, the potential for an escalation of total damage costs due to rapid change requires a coordinated approach at the institutional level, involving all levels of government, the private sector and civil society.One of the largest risks of maladaptation is the potential for un-owned risks, as risks propagate across domains and responsibility for their management is poorly allocated between public and private interests, and between the roles of the individual and civil society. Economic strategies developed by the disaster community for disaster response and risk reduction provide a base to work from, but many gaps remain.We have developed a framework for valuing adaptation that has the following aspects: the valuation of impacts thus estimating values at risk, the evaluation of different adaptation options and strategies based on cost, and the valuation of benefits expressed as a combination of the benefits of avoided damages and a range of institutional values such as equity, justice, sustainability and profit.The choice of economic methods and tools used to assess adaptation depends largely on the ability to constrain uncertainty around problems (predictive uncertainty) and solutions (outcome uncertainty). Orthodox methods can be used where both are constrained, portfolio methodologies where problems are constrained and robust methodologies where solutions are constrained. Where both are unconstrained, process-based methods utilising innovation methods and adaptive management are most suitable. All methods should involve stakeholders where possible.Innovative processes methods that enable transformation will be required in some circumstances, to allow institutions, sectors and communities to prepare for anticipated major change

    Valuing forest recreation on the national level in a transition economy: The case of Poland

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    Recreation benefits constitute a substantial part of the total economic value of forests, and are important for the choice of multi-functional forest policies. The application of methods valuing such benefits is in its infancy in transition economies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), so value estimates for policy use are sometimes transferred from Western Europe proportionally scaled down by GDP. However, little is known about how recreation values vary with income, and one risks underestimating benefits in CEE. This paper reports the findings of the first comprehensive, national-level study in any CEE country estimating annual and per trip forest recreation values in Poland using the Travel Cost (TC) and Contingent Valuation (CV) methods. Two in-person interview surveys of forest recreation behaviour were carried out. The first was administered onsite in ten representative forest areas, and the other in the homes of a national sample of adult Poles. Results show that forest recreation is highly valued in Poland, at Euros 0.64 – 6.93 per trip per person, depending on the valuation method. Both trip frequency and per trip values are higher than the average in Western Europe, despite a lower income level. Thus, a simple GDP-adjusted transfer from Western Europe would substantially undervalue forest recreation in Poland. Further, a comparison of TC consumer surplus estimates and GDP/capita in Europe shows no clear relationship, indicating that a range of cultural, institutional and other factors may be importantForest, recreation, valuation, transition economy

    Farmland abandonment decreases the fire regulation capacity and the fire protection ecosystem service in mountain landscapes

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    This study explored and applied the concepts of Fire Regulation Capacity (FRC) and Fire Protection Ecosystem Service (FPES) in the assessment of the effects of landscape change in a mountain fire-prone landscape in Portugal. We adopted a modeling and simulation approach using BFOLDS-FRM with landscape data for years 1990 and 2006 (observed) and with three landscape scenarios for 2020. Proxy indicators for FRC (burned area and fire intensity) and for economic damage by fire (loss of provisioning ES) were used to establish trends in the supply and value of FPES. We found decreased FRC to restrain simulated fires burning over 100 ha from 1990 on and to regulate Very High and Extreme fire intensity levels, particularly under our 2020 scenario of Forest expansion. FPES is also expected to decrease, as indicated by higher fire-related damages, particularly if fuel hazard increases in the landscape. However, there were differences among scenarios, suggesting potential tradeoffs between FPES and the supply of provisioning ES. Planning and management in this and similar areas experiencing farmland abandonment must consider fire trends and patterns, since landscape change is a major driver affecting FRC and FPES, which may further be decreased by future climatic conditions.Â. Sil received support from the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) through Ph.D Grant SFRH/BD/132838/2017. This research was partially funded by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) through the Operational Programme for Competitiveness Factors–COMPETE and by Portuguese national funds through the Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) under the projects PTDC/AAG-MAA/4539/2012/FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER- 027863 (IND_CHANGE) and UID/AGR/04033/2019. We thank two anonymous reviewers and the editor for extremely valuable comments and suggestions on the manuscript.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

    Earth Observations in Social Science Research for Management of Natural Resources and the Environment: Identifying the Contribution of the U.S. Land Remote Sensing (Landsat) Program

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    This paper surveys and describes the peer-reviewed social science literature in which data from the U.S. land remote sensing program, Landsat, inform public policy in managing natural resources and the environment. The Landsat program has provided the longest collection of observations of Earth from the vantage point of space. The paper differentiates two classes of research: methodology exploring how to use the data (for example, designing and testing algorithms or verifying the accuracy of the data) and applications of data to decisionmaking or policy implementation in managing land, air quality, water, and other natural and environmental resources. Selection of the studies uses social science-oriented bibliographic search indices and expands results of previous surveys that target only researchers specializing in remote sensing or photogrammetry. The usefulness of Landsat as a basis for informing public investment in the Landsat program will be underestimated if this body of research goes unrecognized.natural resources policy, environmental policy, Landsat, social science, environmental management

    Forest - Related Culture and Contribution to Sustainable Development in the Northern Mountain Region in Vietnam

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    The culture of communities living near/in forests indelibly interacts with forest ecosystems, both shaping and adapting to the natural environment. Forest-related cultural dimensions also provide benefits for local economies and social welfare. This study analyses the relationship between local culture and forests of the Tay and the Dao minorities and their contribution to sustainable development in Vo Nhai, a mountainous district in northern Vietnam. The study uses methods of a literature review, participant observation and qualitative interviews with local people. The strong embedded culture with forests that developed over many generations of Tay and Dao people was expressed through their knowledge systems of understanding nature, skills for environmental adaption, health protection and spiritual and recreational activities. The potentials of forest - related culture as a feature of local sustainable development were analysed through contributions in natural resource conservation, economic development and social cohesion. To integrate forest - related culture in sustainable development, some issues need to be better focused on the locality

    Does forest damage have an economic impact? A case study from the Italian Alps

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    The aim of this paper is to take stock of the situation regarding the main types of damage to forests and their respective economic consequences, with reference to a case study in the Italian Alps (Trentino province). Each kind of damage (wind and snow, defoliation, fire and tillage) has been analysed in terms of its impact on four forest functions (production, protection, tourism-recreation and carbon sequestration) and evaluated in monetary terms. Market value was used to estimate the production and carbon sequestration functions, replacement cost method for protection, and contingent valuation for tourism-recreation. Applying desk research on damage caused by the main biotic and abiotic factors to this particular case study led to estimate a annual damage of about € 1,633,595 equal to € 4.73 per hectar. This can be considered a lower bound estimate of possibly greater damage. Another interesting result emerged from the evaluation exercise is that the wealth of information produced through monitoring and scientific research in the last twenty years does not readily lend itself to economic analysis.forest damage, forest functions, interaction between damage and functions, economic valuation, Alpine forests

    AGRICULTURAL PRODUCERS' WILLINGNESS TO PAY FOR REAL-TIME MESOSCALE WEATHER INFORMATION

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    Mesoscale weather networks can provide improved weather information to agricultural producers. This technology can potentially improve production decisions, reduce irrigation and pesticide inputs, and reduce weather-related losses. Developing a mesoscale network to disseminate real-time mesoscale weather information requires a substantial investment. In addition, there are costs associated with maintenance of the system and distribution of the information available. While public funds may be available to support initial development of the system, there may be less public support initial development of the system, there may be less public support for maintaining the system and subsidizing usersÂ’' access to the information. This study uses the contingent valuation technique to determine the willingness of Oklahoma farmers and ranchers, as one set of potential users, to pay for real-time mesoscale weather information. The results indicate that agricultural producers are willing to pay only a modest fee for improved weather information. Gross sales, irrigation, and past weather losses are among the factors shown to significantly impact willingness to pay.Agribusiness,
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