295 research outputs found

    An Archival Analysis of Stall Warning System Effectiveness During Airborne Icing Encounters

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    An archival study was conducted to determine the influence of stall warning system performance on aircrew decision-making outcomes during airborne icing encounters. A Conservative Icing Response Bias (CIRB) model was developed to explain the historical variability in aircrew performance in the face of airframe icing. The model combined Bayes’ Theorem with Signal Detection Theory (SDT) concepts to yield testable predictions that were evaluated using a Binary Logistic Regression (BLR) multivariate technique applied to two archives: the NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) incident database, and the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) accident databases, both covering the period January 1, 1988 to October 2, 2015. The CIRB model predicted that aircrew would experience more incorrect response outcomes in the face of missed stall warnings than with stall warning False Alarms. These predicted outcomes were observed at high significance levels in the final sample of 132 NASA/NTSB cases. The CIRB model had high sensitivity and specificity and explained 71.5% (Nagelkerke R2) of the variance of aircrew decision-making outcomes during the icing encounters. The reliability and validity metrics derived from this study suggest indicate that the findings are generalizable to the population of U.S. registered turbine-powered aircraft. These findings suggest that icing-related stall events could be reduced if the incidence of stall warning misses could be minimized. Observed stall warning misses stemmed from three principal causes: aerodynamic icing effects, which reduced the stall angle-of-attack (AoA) to below the stall warning calibration threshold; tail stalls, which are not monitored by contemporary protection systems; and icing-induced system issues (such as frozen pitot tubes), which compromised stall warning system effectiveness and airframe envelope protections. Each of these sources of missed stall warnings could be addressed by Aerodynamic Performance Monitoring (APM) systems that directly measure the boundary layer airflow adjacent to the affected aerodynamic surfaces, independent of other aircraft stall protection, air data, and AoA systems. In addition to investigating APM systems, measures should also be taken to include the CIRB phenomenon in aircrew training to better prepare crews to cope with airborne icing encounters. The SDT/BLR technique would allow the forecast gains from these improved systems and training processes to be evaluated objectively and quantitatively. The SDT/BLR model developed for this study has broad application outside the realm of airborne icing. The SDT technique has been extensively validated by prior research, and the BLR is a very robust multivariate technique. Combined, they could be applied to evaluate high order constructs (such as stall awareness for this study), in complex and dynamic environments. The union of SDT and BLR reduces the modeling complexities for each variable into the four binary SDT categories of Hit, Miss, False Alarm, and Correct Rejection, which is the optimum format for the BLR. Despite this reductionist approach to complex situations, the method has demonstrated very high statistical and practical significance, as well as excellent predictive power, when applied to the airborne icing scenario

    Systems Analysis of NASA Aviation Safety Program: Final Report

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    A three-month study (February to April 2010) of the NASA Aviation Safety (AvSafe) program was conducted. This study comprised three components: (1) a statistical analysis of currently available civilian subsonic aircraft data from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), and the Aviation Safety Information Analysis and Sharing (ASIAS) system to identify any significant or overlooked aviation safety issues; (2) a high-level qualitative identification of future safety risks, with an assessment of the potential impact of the NASA AvSafe research on the National Airspace System (NAS) based on these risks; and (3) a detailed, top-down analysis of the NASA AvSafe program using an established and peer-reviewed systems analysis methodology. The statistical analysis identified the top aviation "tall poles" based on NTSB accident and FAA incident data from 1997 to 2006. A separate examination of medical helicopter accidents in the United States was also conducted. Multiple external sources were used to develop a compilation of ten "tall poles" in future safety issues/risks. The top-down analysis of the AvSafe was conducted by using a modification of the Gibson methodology. Of the 17 challenging safety issues that were identified, 11 were directly addressed by the AvSafe program research portfolio

    A review of high impact weather for aviation meteorology

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    This review paper summarizes current knowledge available for aviation operations related to meteorology and provides suggestions for necessary improvements in the measurement and prediction of weather-related parameters, new physical methods for numerical weather predictions (NWP), and next-generation integrated systems. Severe weather can disrupt aviation operations on the ground or in-flight. The most important parameters related to aviation meteorology are wind and turbulence, fog visibility, aerosol/ash loading, ceiling, rain and snow amount and rates, icing, ice microphysical parameters, convection and precipitation intensity, microbursts, hail, and lightning. Measurements of these parameters are functions of sensor response times and measurement thresholds in extreme weather conditions. In addition to these, airport environments can also play an important role leading to intensification of extreme weather conditions or high impact weather events, e.g., anthropogenic ice fog. To observe meteorological parameters, new remote sensing platforms, namely wind LIDAR, sodars, radars, and geostationary satellites, and in situ instruments at the surface and in the atmosphere, as well as aircraft and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles mounted sensors, are becoming more common. At smaller time and space scales (e.g., < 1 km), meteorological forecasts from NWP models need to be continuously improved for accurate physical parameterizations. Aviation weather forecasts also need to be developed to provide detailed information that represents both deterministic and statistical approaches. In this review, we present available resources and issues for aviation meteorology and evaluate them for required improvements related to measurements, nowcasting, forecasting, and climate change, and emphasize future challenges

    Preliminary Recommendations for the Collection, Storage, and Analysis of UAS Safety Data

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    Although the use of UASs in military and public service operations is proliferating, civilian use of UASs remains limited in the United States today. With efforts underway to accommodate and integrate UASs into the NAS, a proactive understanding of safety issues, i.e., the unique hazards and the corresponding risks that UASs pose not only through their operations for commercial purposes, but also to existing operations in the NAS, is especially important so as to (a) support the development of a sound regulatory basis, (b) regulate, design and properly equip UASs, and (c) effectively mitigate the risks posed. Data, especially about system and component failures, incidents, and accidents, provides valuable insight into how performance and operational capabilities/limitations contribute to hazards. Since the majority of UAS operations today take place in a context that is significantly different from the norm in civil aviation, i.e., with different operational goals and standards, identifying that which constitutes useful and sufficient data on UASs and their operations is a substantial research challenge

    A Systemic Approach to Next Generation Infrastructure Data Elicitation and Planning Using Serious Gaming Methods

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    Infrastructure systems are vital to the functioning of our society and economy. However, these systems are increasingly complex and are more interdependent than ever, making them difficult to manage. In order to respond to increasing demand, environmental concerns, and natural and man-made threats, infrastructure systems have to adapt and transform. Traditional engineering design approaches and planning tools have proven to be inadequate when planning and managing these complex socio-technical system transitions. The design and implementation of next generation infrastructure systems require holistic methodologies, encompassing organizational and societal aspects in addition to technical factors. In order to do so, a serious gaming based risk assessment methodology is developed to assist infrastructure data elicitation and planning. The methodology combines the use of various models, commercial-off-the-shelf solutions and a gaming approach to aggregate the inputs of various subject matter experts (SMEs) to predict future system characteristics. The serious gaming based approach enables experts to obtain a thorough understanding of the complexity and interdependency of the system while offering a platform to experiment with various strategies and scenarios. In order to demonstrate its abilities, the methodology was applied to National Airspace System (NAS) overhaul and its transformation to Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). The implemented methodology yielded a comprehensive safety assessment and data generation mechanism, embracing the social and technical aspects of the NAS transformation for the next 15 years

    November 2017 School of Graduate Studies Newsletter

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    Notes from the Associate Dean: The Scholarship of Safety as the Epitome of an Enlightened Civilization Summer Residency Awards & Honors News Journal Articles MSA News Opportunities SGS Announcements Save the Date: Military Air Safety Workshop World Aviation Training Summithttps://commons.erau.edu/db-sgs-newletter/1016/thumbnail.jp

    Aeronautical engineering: A continuing bibliography with indexes (supplement 323)

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    This bibliography lists 518 reports, articles, and other documents introduced into the NASA scientific and technical information system in November 1995. Subject coverage includes: design, construction and testing of aircraft and aircraft engines; aircraft components, equipment, and systems; ground support systems; and theoretical and applied aspects of aerodynamics and general fluid dynamics

    The modelling of accident frequency using risk exposure data for the assessment of airport safety areas

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    This thesis makes significant contributions to improving the use of Airport Safety Areas (ASAs) as aviation accident risk mitigation measures by developing improved accident frequency models and risk assessment methodologies. In recent years, the adequacy of ASAs such as the Runway End Safety Area and Runway Safety Area has come under increasing scrutiny. The current research found flaws in the existing ASA regulations and airport risk assessment techniques that lead to the provision of inconsistent safety margins at airports and runways. The research was based on a comprehensive database of ASA-related accidents, which was matched by a representative sample of normal operations data, such that the exposure to a range of operational and meteorological risk factors between accident and normal flights could be compared. On this basis, the criticality of individual risk factors was quantified and accident frequency models were developed using logistic regression. These models have considerably better predictive power compared to models used by previous airport risk assessments. An improved risk assessment technique was developed coupling the accident frequency models with accident location data, yielding distributions that describe the frequency of accidents that reach specific distances beyond the runway end or centreline given the risk exposure profile of the particular runway. The application of the proposed methodology was demonstrated in two case studies. Specific recommendations on ASA dimensions were made for achieving consistent levels of safety on each side of the runway. Advances made in this study have implications on the overall assessment and management of risks at airports

    Improving meteorological information to air transport

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    Meteorological information and services supporting the various operations of air transport enable a safe, efficient and cost-effective operating environment for airspace users, air navigation service providers and air traffic management. The continuing pursuit towards an improved quality of observation, forecasting and decision support services is driven by an increasingly weather-sensitive society and growing impacts of hazardous weather events. This thesis provides an overview of the field of aeronautical meteorological research by introducing the organisations involved, global and regional strategies, impacts of weather on air transport, current state of the art in meteorological research and decision support systems serving air transport needs with a view of where the field should evolve next. This thesis is an attempt to highlight key findings and point the reader towards the direction of further research on the given topics. Research supporting air transport operations with the optimal use of weather information is a specialized field where advances are led by the needs of various airspace users. Research institutions for example in the United States have contributed greatly due to the severe weather impacts experienced by the National Airspace System (NAS), the ability of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to direct long-term funding to solve specific aviation-related research questions. The creation and maintenance of long-lived teams of scientists and engineers working together to produce end-to-end solutions that meet the needs of the aviation industry is the key to improving meteorological information to aviation users while university research is typically shorter duration and typical does not result in operational systems. From a global perspective, research is yet to be organised in a way that would contribute to solving aviation issues beyond single research projects and/or programmes. There is a lot more the scientific community could do to develop tailored information to decision support systems used by the aviation sector, but it would require systematic investments and the establishment of research groups focusing on the applied science questions and technology transfer. This thesis provides an overview of recommended decision support system development topics with an outline of potential milestones

    Improving meteorological information to air transport

    Get PDF
    Meteorological information and services supporting the various operations of air transport enable a safe, efficient and cost-effective operating environment for airspace users, air navigation service providers and air traffic management. The continuing pursuit towards an improved quality of observation, forecasting and decision support services is driven by an increasingly weather-sensitive society and growing impacts of hazardous weather events. This thesis provides an overview of the field of aeronautical meteorological research by introducing the organisations involved, global and regional strategies, impacts of weather on air transport, current state of the art in meteorological research and decision support systems serving air transport needs with a view of where the field should evolve next. This thesis is an attempt to highlight key findings and point the reader towards the direction of further research on the given topics. Research supporting air transport operations with the optimal use of weather information is a specialized field where advances are led by the needs of various airspace users. Research institutions for example in the United States have contributed greatly due to the severe weather impacts experienced by the National Airspace System (NAS), the ability of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to direct long-term funding to solve specific aviation-related research questions. The creation and maintenance of long-lived teams of scientists and engineers working together to produce end-to-end solutions that meet the needs of the aviation industry is the key to improving meteorological information to aviation users while university research is typically shorter duration and typical does not result in operational systems. From a global perspective, research is yet to be organised in a way that would contribute to solving aviation issues beyond single research projects and/or programmes. There is a lot more the scientific community could do to develop tailored information to decision support systems used by the aviation sector, but it would require systematic investments and the establishment of research groups focusing on the applied science questions and technology transfer. This thesis provides an overview of recommended decision support system development topics with an outline of potential milestones.Tieto ilmakehän nykyisestä ja tulevasta tilasta sekä tätä tietoa ilmailun tarpeisiin tuottavat palvelut mahdollistavat turvallisen, toimivan sekä kustannustehokkaan toimintaympäristön ilmatilan käyttäjille, ilmailun palveluiden tuottajille sekä ilmatilan hallintaa toteuttaville tahoille. Vaarallisille sääilmiöille herkemmäksi kehittyvä yhteiskunta vaatii havaintojen, ennusteiden sekä päätöksenteon tukijärjestelmien jatkuvaa kehittämistä asiakkaiden tarpeisiin. Tämä lisensiaatintutkielma tarjoaa maailmanlaajuisen yleiskatsauksen ilmailun sääpalveluiden tutkimukseen ja tuotekehitykseen pyrkimyksenään esitellä keskeiset toimijat, alueelliset ja kansalliset kehittämisohjelmat ja strategiat, sään vaikutukset ilmailulle, ilmailun sääpalveluiden nykytila sekä tulevaisuuden toimintaympäristön edellyttämät uudet lentosääpalvelut. Tavoitteena on korostaa ilmailun kannalta tärkeimpiä meteorologisia kehityskohteita ja ohjata lukija jo tehdyn tutkimuksen pariin. Ilmailun toimintoja tukevien sääpalveluiden kehittämiseen tähtäävä tutkimus on hyvin soveltava erikoisala, missä asiakkaiden tarpeet määrittävät tutkimuskohteet. Kehitys on keskittynyt voimakkaasti Yhdysvaltoihin, mihin on syynä kapasiteetin äärirajoilla toimiva ilmatila sekä kyky rahoittaa pitkäkestoisia meteorologisia tutkimushankkeita ilmailun tarpeisiin. Meteorologian tutkijoiden ja insinöörien pitkäkestoinen yhteistyö tuottaa koko arvoketjun kattavia projekteja, joiden lopputuloksena syntyy asiakkaan tarpeisiin räätälöityjä palveluita hyödyntäen yliopistoissa tehtävää tutkimusta sekä tietoteknisten ratkaisujen kehittymistä. Maailmanlaajuisesti katsottuna ilmailun sääpalveluiden tutkimusta ja tuotekehitystä ei ole toistaiseksi järjestetty yhtenäisen strategian tai tavoitteiden alle. Tieteellinen yhteisö pystyisi kasvattamaan merkittävästi panostaan ilmailun turvallisuuden kehittämiseksi, mikäli tuotekehityksen rahoitus organisoitaisiin paremmin ja osaaminen keskitettäisiin soveltavan tutkimuksen ryhmiin. Tämä tutkielma sisältää suosituksia päätöksenteon tukijärjestelmiin integroitavista sääpalveluista, joiden avulla säätilan vaikutus lentotoiminnalle voidaan viedä suoraan päätöksentekotasolle. Tutkielmassa esitettyjen projektiaihioiden tarkoituksena esittää konkreettisia toimenpiteitä, joilla varmistutaan tutkimuksen soveltuvuudesta loppukäyttäjien toimintaan
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