Leveraging Rationales to Improve Human Task Performance

Machine learning (ML) systems across many application areas are increasingly demonstrating performance that is beyond that of humans. In response to the proliferation of such models, the field of Explainable AI (XAI) has sought to develop techniques that enhance the transparency and interpretability of machine learning methods. In this work, we consider a question not previously explored within the XAI and ML communities: Given a computational system whose performance exceeds that of its human user, can explainable AI capabilities be leveraged to improve the performance of the human? We study this question in the context of the game of Chess, for which computational game engines that surpass the performance of the average player are widely available. We introduce the Rationale-Generating Algorithm, an automated technique for generating rationales for utility-based computational methods, which we evaluate with a multi-day user study against two baselines. The results show that our approach produces rationales that lead to statistically significant improvement in human task performance, demonstrating that rationales automatically generated from an AI's internal task model can be used not only to explain what the system is doing, but also to instruct the user and ultimately improve their task performance.Comment: ACM IUI 202

Reshaping the Common Good in Times of Public Health Emergencies: Validating Medical Triage

Public health ethics require individuals who are inherently at risk for transmitting communicable disease to be subjected, oftentimes, to isolation, quarantine, or compulsory vaccination - all undertaken, as such, to protect the common good and thereby secure the public-at-law for exposure to the spread of an infectious disease. This article tests the extent to which public health emergencies necessitate a reinterpretation or reshaping of the common good and proceeds to analyze the extent to which the medical principle of triage is a relevant construct for allocating scarce medical resources during contemporary public health emergencies. The article proceeds to test the efficacy or codification of this construct by applying it to The National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza. The efforts to advance law reform in dealing with public health emergencies and bioterrorism through the Model State Emergency Health Powers Act and the Turning Point Medical State Public Health Act are analyzed. The conclusion drawn from the analysis is that national emergencies force disequilibrium in the system of liberties and constitutional rights which, in turn, have the effect of placing public safety concerns above what, heretofore, were seen as unassailable fundamental values of autonomy and privacy. Pragmatic courts and pragmatic social orders, then, must respond accordingly to these changed circumstances by recalibrating what has been a point of balance or equilibrium by restricting previously validated civil liberties in favor of safety and maintenance of the common good

Expert Rev Vaccines

Background:Multiple vaccine options are available for polio prevention and risk management. Integrated global risk, economic, and poliovirus transmission modeling provides a tool to explore the dynamics of ending all use of one or more poliovirus vaccines to simplify the polio eradication endgame.Research design and methods:With global reported cases of poliomyelitis trending higher since 2016, we apply an integrated global model to simulate prospective vaccine policies and strategies for OPV-using countries starting with initial conditions that correspond to the epidemiological poliovirus transmission situation at the beginning of 2022.Results:Abruptly ending all OPV use in 2023 and relying only on IPV to prevent paralysis with current routine immunization coverage would lead to expected reestablished endemic transmission of poliovirus types 1 and 2, and approximately 150,000 expected cases of poliomyelitis per year. Alternatively, if OPV-using countries restart trivalent OPV (tOPV) use for all immunization activities and end IPV use, the model shows the lowest anticipated annual polio cases and lowest costs.Conclusions:Poor global risk management and coordination of OPV cessation remain a critical failure mode for the polio endgame, and national and global decision makers face difficult choices due to multiple available polio vaccine options and immunization strategies.NU2RGH001915/ImCDC/Intramural CDC HHSUnited States

The electrostatic profile of consecutive Cβ atoms applied to protein structure quality assessment.

The structure of a protein provides insight into its physiological interactions with other components of the cellular soup. Methods that predict putative structures from sequences typically yield multiple, closely-ranked possibilities. A critical component in the process is the model quality assessing program (MQAP), which selects the best candidate from this pool of structures. Here, we present a novel MQAP based on the physical properties of sidechain atoms. We propose a method for assessing the quality of protein structures based on the electrostatic potential difference (EPD) of Cβ atoms in consecutive residues. We demonstrate that the EPDs of Cβ atoms on consecutive residues provide unique signatures of the amino acid types. The EPD of Cβ atoms are learnt from a set of 1000 non-homologous protein structures with a resolution cuto of 1.6 Å obtained from the PISCES database. Based on the Boltzmann hypothesis that lower energy conformations are proportionately sampled more, and on Annsen's thermodynamic hypothesis that the native structure of a protein is the minimum free energy state, we hypothesize that the deviation of observed EPD values from the mean values obtained in the learning phase is minimized in the native structure. We achieved an average specificity of 0.91, 0.94 and 0.93 on hg_structal, 4state_reduced and ig_structal decoy sets, respectively, taken from the Decoys `R' Us database. The source code and manual is made available at https://github.com/sanchak/mqap and permanently available on 10.5281/zenodo.7134

A Refinement-Based Heuristic Method for Decision Making in the Context of Ayo Game

Games of strategy, such as chess have served as a convenient test of skills at devising efficient search algorithms, formalizing knowledge, and bringing the power of computation to bear on “intractable” problems. Generally, minimax search has been the fundamental concept of obtaining solution to game problems. However, there are a number of limitations associated with using minimax search in order to offer solution to Ayo game. Among these limitations are: (i.) improper design of a suitable evaluator for moves before the moves are made, and (ii.) inability to select a correct move without assuming that players will play optimally. This study investigated the extent to which the knowledge of minimax search technique could be enhanced with a refinement-based heuristic method for playing Ayo game. This is complemented by the CDG (an end game strategy) for generating procedures such that only good moves are generated at any instance of playing Ayo game by taking cognizance of the opponent strategy of play. The study was motivated by the need to advance the African board game – Ayo – to see how it could be made to be played by humans across the globe, by creating both theoretical and product-oriented framework. This framework provides local Ayo game promotion initiatives in accordance with state-of-the-art practices in the global game playing domain. In order to accomplish this arduous task, both theoretical and empirical approaches were used. The theoretical approach reveals some mathematical properties of Ayo game with specific emphasis on the CDG as an end game strategy and means of obtaining the minimal and maximal CDG configurations. Similarly, a theoretical analysis of the minimax search was given and was enhanced with the Refinement-based heuristics. For the empirical approach, we simulated Ayo game playing on a digital viii computer and studied the behaviour of the various heuristic metrics used and compared the play strategies of the simulation with AWALE (the world known Ayo game playing standard software). Furthermore, empirical judgment was carried out on how experts play Ayo game as a means of evaluating the performance of the heuristics used to evolve the Ayo player in the simulation which gives room for statistical interpretation. This projects novel means of solving the problem of decision making in move selections in computer game playing of Ayo game. The study shows how an indigenous game like Ayo can generate integer sequence, and consequently obtain some self-replicating patterns that repeat themselves at different iterations. More importantly, the study gives an efficient and usable operation support tools in the prototype simulation of Ayo game playing that has improvement over Awal

Program Management Through the Lens of a Massive Multiplayer Online Gamer: A Pilot Study

Learning can occur through many media types. This thesis explores the possibility that guild leaders in the Massive Multiplayer Online (MMO) video game World of Warcraft learn and use similar skills to those that professional program managers learn and use in the corporate world. I evaluate World of Warcraft literature, present guild member interviews and use online forums to compare gaming leadership attributes to attributes in the program manager competency model described by Partington, Pellegrinelli, and Young (2005). The results provide preliminary support for the hypothesis that a bridge exists between these two leadership roles

A Survey on Actionable Knowledge

Actionable Knowledge Discovery (AKD) is a crucial aspect of data mining that is gaining popularity and being applied in a wide range of domains. This is because AKD can extract valuable insights and information, also known as knowledge, from large datasets. The goal of this paper is to examine different research studies that focus on various domains and have different objectives. The paper will review and discuss the methods used in these studies in detail. AKD is a process of identifying and extracting actionable insights from data, which can be used to make informed decisions and improve business outcomes. It is a powerful tool for uncovering patterns and trends in data that can be used for various applications such as customer relationship management, marketing, and fraud detection. The research studies reviewed in this paper will explore different techniques and approaches for AKD in different domains, such as healthcare, finance, and telecommunications. The paper will provide a thorough analysis of the current state of AKD in the field and will review the main methods used by various research studies. Additionally, the paper will evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of each method and will discuss any novel or new solutions presented in the field. Overall, this paper aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the methods and techniques used in AKD and the impact they have on different domains

Diagrammatic Languages and Formal Verification : A Tool-Based Approach

The importance of software correctness has been accentuated as a growing number of safety-critical systems have been developed relying on software operating these systems. One of the more prominent methods targeting the construction of a correct program is formal verification. Formal verification identifies a correct program as a program that satisfies its specification and is free of defects. While in theory formal verification guarantees a correct implementation with respect to the specification, applying formal verification techniques in practice has shown to be difficult and expensive. In response to these challenges, various support methods and tools have been suggested for all phases from program specification to proving the derived verification conditions. This thesis concerns practical verification methods applied to diagrammatic modeling languages. While diagrammatic languages are widely used in communicating system design (e.g., UML) and behavior (e.g., state charts), most formal verification platforms require the specification to be written in a textual specification language or in the mathematical language of an underlying logical framework. One exception is invariant-based programming, in which programs together with their specifications are drawn as invariant diagrams, a type of state transition diagram annotated with intermediate assertions (preconditions, postconditions, invariants). Even though the allowed program states—called situations—are described diagrammatically, the intermediate assertions defining a situation’s meaning in the domain of the program are still written in conventional textual form. To explore the use of diagrams in expressing the intermediate assertions of invariant diagrams, we designed a pictorial language for expressing array properties. We further developed this notation into a diagrammatic domain-specific language (DSL) and implemented it as an extension to the Why3 platform. The DSL supports expression of array properties. The language is based on Reynolds’s interval and partition diagrams and includes a construct for mapping array intervals to logic predicates. Automated verification of a program is attained by generating the verification conditions and proving that they are true. In practice, full proof automation is not possible except for trivial programs and verifying even simple properties can require significant effort both in specification and proof stages. An animation tool which supports run-time evaluation of the program statements and intermediate assertions given any user-defined input can support this process. In particular, an execution trace leading up to a failed assertion constitutes a refutation of a verification condition that requires immediate attention. As an extension to Socos, a verificion tool for invariant diagrams built on top of the PVS proof system, we have developed an execution model where program statements and assertions can be evaluated in a given program state. A program is represented by an abstract datatype encoding the program state, together with a small-step state transition function encoding the evaluation of a single statement. This allows the program’s runtime behavior to be formally inspected during verification. We also implement animation and interactive debugging support for Socos. The thesis also explores visualization of system development in the context of model decomposition in Event-B. Decomposing a software system becomes increasingly critical as the system grows larger, since the workload on the theorem provers must be distributed effectively. Decomposition techniques have been suggested in several verification platforms to split the models into smaller units, each having fewer verification conditions and therefore imposing a lighter load on automatic theorem provers. In this work, we have investigated a refinement-based decomposition technique that makes the development process more resilient to change in specification and allows parallel development of sub-models by a team. As part of the research, we evaluated the technique on a small case study, a simplified version of a landing gear system verification presented by Boniol and Wiels, within the Event-B specification language.Vikten av programvaras korrekthet har accentuerats då ett växande antal säkerhetskritiska system, vilka är beroende av programvaran som styr dessa, har utvecklas. En av de mer framträdande metoderna som riktar in sig på utveckling av korrekt programvara är formell verifiering. Inom formell verifiering avses med ett korrekt program ett program som uppfyller sina specifikationer och som är fritt från defekter. Medan formell verifiering teoretiskt sett kan garantera ett korrekt program med avseende på specifikationerna, har tillämpligheten av formella verifieringsmetod visat sig i praktiken vara svår och dyr. Till svar på dessa utmaningar har ett stort antal olika stödmetoder och automatiseringsverktyg föreslagits för samtliga faser från specifikationen till bevisningen av de härledda korrekthetsvillkoren. Denna avhandling behandlar praktiska verifieringsmetoder applicerade på diagrambaserade modelleringsspråk. Medan diagrambaserade språk ofta används för kommunikation av programvarudesign (t.ex. UML) samt beteende (t.ex. tillståndsdiagram), kräver de flesta verifieringsplattformar att specifikationen kodas medelst ett textuellt specifikationsspåk eller i språket hos det underliggande logiska ramverket. Ett undantag är invariantbaserad programmering, inom vilken ett program tillsammans med dess specifikation ritas upp som sk. invariantdiagram, en typ av tillståndstransitionsdiagram annoterade med mellanliggande logiska villkor (förvillkor, eftervillkor, invarianter). Även om de tillåtna programtillstånden—sk. situationer—beskrivs diagrammatiskt är de logiska predikaten som beskriver en situations betydelse i programmets domän fortfarande skriven på konventionell textuell form. För att vidare undersöka användningen av diagram vid beskrivningen av mellanliggande villkor inom invariantbaserad programming, har vi konstruerat ett bildbaserat språk för villkor över arrayer. Vi har därefter vidareutvecklat detta språk till ett diagrambaserat domän-specifikt språk (domain-specific language, DSL) och implementerat stöd för det i verifieringsplattformen Why3. Språket låter användaren uttrycka egenskaper hos arrayer, och är baserat på Reynolds intevall- och partitionsdiagram samt inbegriper en konstruktion för mappning av array-intervall till logiska predikat. Automatisk verifiering av ett program uppnås genom generering av korrekthetsvillkor och åtföljande bevisning av dessa. I praktiken kan full automatisering av bevis inte uppnås utom för trivial program, och även bevisning av enkla egenskaper kan kräva betydande ansträngningar både vid specifikations- och bevisfaserna. Ett animeringsverktyg som stöder exekvering av såväl programmets satser som mellanliggande villkor för godtycklig användarinput kan vara till hjälp i denna process. Särskilt ett exekveringspår som leder upp till ett falskt mellanliggande villkor utgör ett direkt vederläggande (refutation) av ett bevisvillkor, vilket kräver omedelbar uppmärksamhet från programmeraren. Som ett tillägg till Socos, ett verifieringsverktyg för invariantdiagram baserat på bevissystemet PVS, har vi utvecklat en exekveringsmodell där programmets satser och villkor kan evalueras i ett givet programtillstånd. Ett program representeras av en abstrakt datatyp för programmets tillstånd tillsammans med en small-step transitionsfunktion för evalueringen av en enskild programsats. Detta möjliggör att ett programs exekvering formellt kan analyseras under verifieringen. Vi har också implementerat animation och interaktiv felsökning i Socos. Avhandlingen undersöker också visualisering av systemutveckling i samband med modelluppdelning inom Event-B. Uppdelning av en systemmodell blir allt mer kritisk då ett systemet växer sig större, emedan belastningen på underliggande teorembe visare måste fördelas effektivt. Uppdelningstekniker har föreslagits inom många olika verifieringsplattformar för att dela in modellerna i mindre enheter, så att varje enhet har färre verifieringsvillkor och därmed innebär en mindre belastning på de automatiska teorembevisarna. I detta arbete har vi undersökt en refinement-baserad uppdelningsteknik som gör utvecklingsprocessen mer kapabel att hantera förändringar hos specifikationen och som tillåter parallell utveckling av delmodellerna inom ett team. Som en del av forskningen har vi utvärderat tekniken på en liten fallstudie: en förenklad modell av automationen hos ett landningsställ av Boniol and Wiels, uttryckt i Event-B-specifikationspråket

Resource Needs for the Trivalent Oral Polio to Bivalent Oral Polio Vaccine Switch in Indonesia

Background. We present an empirical economic cost analysis of the April 2016 switch from trivalent (tOPV) to bivalent (bOPV) oral polio vaccine at the national-level and 3 provinces (Bali, West Sumatera and Nusa Tenggara) for Indonesia�s Expanded Program on Immunization.Methods. Data on the quantity and prices of resources used in the 4 World Health Organization guideline phases of the switch were collected at the national-level and in each of the sampled provinces, cities?districts, and health facilities. Costs were calculated as the sum of the value of resources reportedly used in each sampled unit by switch phase.Results. Estimated national-level costs were $46 791. Costs by health system level varied from$9062 to $34 256 at the prov- ince-level, from$4576 to $11 936 at the district-level , and from$3488 to $29 175 at the city-level. Estimated national costs ranged from$4 076 446 (Bali, minimum cost scenario) to $28 120 700 (West Sumatera, maximum cost scenario). Conclusions. Our findings suggest that the majority of tPOV to bOPV switch costs were borne at the subnational level. Considerable variation in reported costs among health system levels surveyed indicates a need for flexibility in budgeting for glob- ally synchronized public health activities