Prédiction de la détérioration du comportement à l’aide de l’apprentissage automatique

Les plateformes de médias sociaux rassemblent des individus pour interagir de manière amicale et civilisée tout en ayant des convictions et des croyances diversifiées. Certaines personnes adoptent des comportements répréhensibles qui nuisent à la sérénité et affectent négativement l’équanimité des autres utilisateurs. Certains cas de mauvaise conduite peuvent initialement avoir de petits effets statistiques, mais leur accumulation persistante pourrait entraîner des conséquences majeures et dévastatrices. L’accumulation persistante des mauvais comportements peut être un prédicteur valide des facteurs de risque de détérioration du comportement. Le problème de la détérioration du comportement n’a pas été largement étudié dans le contexte des médias sociaux. La détection précoce de la détérioration du comportement peut être d’une importance cruciale pour éviter que le mauvais comportement des individus ne s’aggrave. Cette thèse aborde le problème de la détérioration du comportement dans le contexte des médias sociaux. Nous proposons de nouvelles méthodes basées sur l’apprentissage automatique qui (1) explorent les séquences comportementales et leurs motifs temporels pour faciliter la compréhension des comportements manifestés par les individus et (2) prédisent la détérioration du comportement à partir de combinaisons consécutives de motifs séquentiels correspondant à des comportements inappropriés. Nous menons des expériences approfondies à l’aide d’ensembles de données du monde réel et démontrons la capacité de nos modèles à prédire la détérioration du comportement avec un haut degré de précision, c’est-à-dire des scores F-1 supérieurs à 0,8. En outre, nous examinons la trajectoire de détérioration du comportement afin de découvrir les états émotionnels que les individus présentent progressivement et d’évaluer si ces états émotionnels conduisent à la détérioration du comportement au fil du temps. Nos résultats suggèrent que la colère pourrait être un état émotionnel potentiel qui pourrait contribuer substantiellement à la détérioration du comportement

Homeland Security Affairs Journal, Volume I - 2005: Issue 1, Summer

Homeland Security Affairs is the peer-reviewed online journal of the Naval Postgraduate School Center for Homeland Defense and Security (CHDS), providing a forum to propose and debate strategies, policies, and organizational arrangements to strengthen U.S. homeland security. The instructors, participants, alumni, and partners of CHDS represent the leading subject matter experts and practitioners in the field of homeland security.June 2005. We are pleased to present the inaugural issue of Homeland Security Affairs. The primary goal of the journal is to be the academic publication that furthers the discussion and debate of important elements that comprise the nation’s homeland security system. Homeland Security Affairs is meant to encourage relevant research and commentary by academics and practitioners and provide an outlet for the growing body of knowledge that addresses the diversity of homeland security issues and challenges. This first issue features articles by the Naval Postgraduate School’s Center for Homeland Defense and Security and its partners. Future issues will include works from scholars and practitioners from around the country and abroad. Homeland security as a discipline in the United States emerged out of necessity from the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. Unlike other professional disciplines which have evolved and matured over decades and in some cases centuries, homeland security is on the fast track. This inaugural issue features articles centered on the relatively new concept of prevention. The country is still discovering what a national prevention strategy needs to entail. Over the past decades, emergency management professionals have continued to develop and refine response plans, systems and capabilities to incorporate lessons learned from natural disasters and events like the Oklahoma Murrah Federal Building bombing and first World trade Center attack. This response framework provided the vehicle and focus for billions of dollars in federal grant funding sent to local and state first responders following 9-11. However, there was no such framework for coordinating and funding “first preventors.” Over the past four years, local, state, and federal government, private sector and military officials have been asked to assume new prevention roles and responsibilities. We are just now beginning to see prevention best practices emerge at the local and state level. For example, prior to 9-11, intelligence and information sharing organizations were not commonly found in municipal and state agencies. A recent study conducted by the National Governors Association reports that more than a third of the states have or are in the process of establishing intelligence “fusion centers.” In what will be a regular Homeland Security Affairs column entitled “Changing Homeland Security,” Chris Bellavita examines the challenge of public complacency as the attacks of 9-11 become more distant. Historically, we have learned from natural disasters that the public and politicians are most willing to commit resources and pass legislation in the months immediately following a disaster. The more time that passes after the disaster without a new event occurring, the more likely the urgency and support for increased spending and legislation will diminish. In a separate article, “What is Preventing Homeland Security,” Chris Bellavita explores why four years after 9-11 the nation’s homeland security system is still designed around response rather than prevention. One reason for this could be that it is difficult to measure successful prevention measures. The public is familiar with response operations which are well covered by the media. But in most cases, prevention happens behind the scenes and is invisible to the public. This makes it difficult to maintain long-term financial and political support. In “Measuring Prevention,” Glen Woodbury repels the argument that prevention is immeasurable. The security of U.S. borders continues to challenge government officials. Homeland security has caused Americans to look at the issue of border security from a new perspective that goes beyond traditional immigration policies. Robert Bach’s article, “Transforming Border Security: Prevention First,” looks at the fundamental shifts in U.S. border policies required to achieve a true border strategy centered on prevention. Homeland security is not a single well-defined discipline but rather the integration of several — e.g. law enforcement, public health, fire, agriculture, utilities, military, etc. Individual local, state and federal agencies as well as industry all have a role in homeland security that requires officials to rethink traditional policies, strategies and business models. Jose Docobo’s article, “Community Policing as the Primary Prevention Strategy for Homeland Security at the Local Law Enforcement Level” presents one model for addressing the challenge of terrorism prevention in law enforcement. David Longshore in “American Naval Power and the Prevention of Terrorism” puts forth a military model and examines its relevance to local jurisdiction terrorism planning. There are countless potential terrorist attack scenarios. Public and private sector leaders recognize that they cannot plan for every type of attack, yet we as a country must be prepared. Thomas Goss recommends one approach to preparedness planning in his article “Building a Contingency Menu: Using Capabilities-Based Planning for Homeland Defense and Homeland Security.” Goss suggests that changing the question “who is the threat?” to “what could the threat do?” will allow exploration of a broader range of eventualities than is encouraged by either threat based or scenario based planning. Homeland Security Affairs is committed to publishing quarterly issues that contribute to the growing body of knowledge from which homeland security as an academic and professional discipline are evolving. We encourage our readers to further the national discussion on the topics presented. We welcome reader feedback through “letters to the editor” at www.hsaj.org and the submission of articles presenting alternative viewpoints, models and approaches as well as research in new areas. The editors and staff would like to thank the U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s Office for Domestic Preparedness for sponsoring the journal. The views expressed in Homeland Security Affairs represent the personal views of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the official policy or position of the Naval Postgraduate School, the Department of Homeland Security, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government.Sponsored by the U. S. Department of Homeland Security’s National Preparedness Directorate, FEMA, CHDS is part of the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS)

Homeland Security Affairs Journal, Volume 14 / 2018

Homeland Security Affairs is the peer-reviewed online journal of the Naval Postgraduate School Center for Homeland Defense and Security (CHDS), providing a forum to propose and debate strategies, policies, and organizational arrangements to strengthen U.S. homeland security. The instructors, participants, alumni, and partners of CHDS represent the leading subject matter experts and practitioners in the field of homeland security. Homeland Security Affairs captures the best of their collective work, as well as that of scholars and practitioners throughout the nation, through peer-reviewed articles on new strategies, policies, concepts and data relating to every aspect of Homeland Security. These articles constitute not only the “smart practices” but also the evolution of Homeland Security as an emerging academic and professional discipline. Sponsored by the U. S. Department of Homeland Security’s National Preparedness Directorate, FEMA, CHDS is part of the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS). CHDS provides graduate and executive education programs to the nation’s homeland security leaders, including governors, mayors, senior local, state, federal and private sector officials and select military officers. CHDS also operates the Homeland Security Digital Library, which is the authoritative tool for research in the field of homeland security policy and strategy.Sponsored by the U. S. Department of Homeland Security’s National Preparedness Directorate, FEMA, CHDS is part of the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS)

Strategic Culture as the Basis for Military Adaptive Capacity: Overcoming battlefield technological surprises

The ability of a military to respond to environmental changes rather than rigidly adhere to previously defined concepts of operation is paramount to overcoming unforeseen battlefield technological challenges. A force with the greater capacity for learning and adaptation will possess significant advantages in overcoming unforeseen challenges. However, it is unclear as to what determines the flexibility or adaptive capacity of a military during military engagements. To address this issue, this study focuses on intra- war adaptation as a product of a military’s strategic culture in overcoming enemy technological surprises. The work demonstrates the symbiotic relationship between strategic culture and adaptability that ultimately determines how effectively a force will respond to unforeseen battlefield challenges. For this reason, strategic culture is indispensable in explaining why militaries may continue to act in ways that are incongruous with prevailing operational circumstances while others are adept at responding to Clausewitzian fog and friction

Efficacy of Education on Police Misconduct

The purpose of this phenomenological study was to understand and discover the efficacy of education on police misconduct for the citizens of Port Isabel, Texas through the services received from the Port Isabel, Texas, police department, and the trust in the relationship between the citizens and the police officers of Port Isabel, Texas. The theory guiding this study is Moral Development Theory initiated by Lawrence Kohlberg, which explains that children and adolescents progress through six stages of moral development organized in three levels (Carmichael et al., 2019). While this theory is directed at children and adolescents, the same theory can be used on police officers through the different stages of development and understanding based on exposure to moral judgements they must make throughout their careers. The methodology consisted of qualitative design, with a sample size of 12 anonymous citizens who resided in or were employed in the city of Port Isabel, Texas, between 2017-2022. The data collection consisted through an anonymous online survey to describe the attitudes of Port Isabel, Texas, citizens and determine if the current training provided to the police officers were sufficient and the effects on police misconduct. The results provided four recommendations for criminal justice executives, policy makers, and police officers: 1) police departments need to partner with higher-level educational institutions to synchronize and standardize procedures, 2) research should be applied to police departments that provide financial benefits to police officers with education, 3) research on higher education levels for police officers with different backgrounds and variables, including prior police experience, military experience, and the size of the police departments they are employed with, 4) determine the effects if police officers were sponsored recruits or self-sponsored at their respective police academies

Attitudes and Perceptions of Concealed Carry on Campus: A Case Study of Students, Staff, and Faculty at Liberty University

The number of mass shootings and active shooter situations has significantly increased at higher education institutions (HEIs) over the past several years, and as a result, they have introduced issues of safety that administrators must handle. The purpose of this embedded, single case study was to understand the attitudes concerning concealed carry on campus for students, staff, and faculty at Liberty University. The primary theory guiding this study was vested interest theory (Crano, 1997) as it examines the attitudes of those most closely involved with a situation and how they become vested in a particular situation which results in behavior changes, and the secondary theory is Maslow’s (1970) hierarchy of needs, as it argues that in order for individuals to achieve their potential, they must first have their safety needs met. Data collection entailed a survey sent to all students, staff, and faculty followed by interviews with select participants. Data analysis included the coding of the data to examine themes across the embedded units and provide descriptions of the attitudes and perceptions of faculty, staff, and students across the university. The research questions guiding this study were: (1) How do students, staff, and faculty feel about concealed carry on campus? (2) What factors influence the attitudes of faculty, staff, and students towards concealed carry on campus? (3) What affects does a concealed carry policy have on student, staff, and faculty perceptions of safety? (4) What impact does the university’s culture have on student, staff, and faculty attitudes towards concealed carry? (5) How do the students, staff, and faculty perceive the exposure given them concerning concealed carry on campus? Three overarching themes were identified: education and training, cognitive and emotional maturity, and mental health

Countering Terrorism on Tomorrow’s Battlefield: Critical Infrastructure Security and Resiliency (NATO COE-DAT Handbook 2)

Every day, malicious actors target emerging technologies and medical resilience or seek to wreak havoc in the wake of disasters brought on by climate change, energy insecurity, and supply-chain disruptions. Countering Terrorism on Tomorrow’s Battlefield is a handbook on how to strengthen critical infrastructure resilience in an era of emerging threats. The counterterrorism research produced for this volume is in alignment with NATO’s Warfighting Capstone Concept, which details how NATO Allies can transform and maintain their advantage despite new threats for the next two decades. The topics are rooted in NATO’s Seven Baseline requirements, which set the standard for enhancing resilience in every aspect of critical infrastructure and civil society. As terrorists hone their skills to operate lethal drones, use biometric data to target innocents, and take advantage of the chaos left by pandemics and natural disasters for nefarious purposes, NATO forces must be prepared to respond and prevent terrorist events before they happen. Big-data analytics provides potential for NATO states to receive early warning to prevent pandemics, cyberattacks, and kinetic attacks. NATO is perfecting drone operations through interoperability exercises, and space is being exploited by adversaries. Hypersonic weapons are actively being used on the battlefield, and satellites have been targeted to take down wind farms and control navigation. This handbook is a guide for the future, providing actionable information and recommendations to keep our democracies safe today and in the years to come.https://press.armywarcollege.edu/monographs/1953/thumbnail.jp

The People Behind the Presidential Bully Pulpit

The People Behind the Presidential Bully Pulpit argues that civil servants best serve the interests of both the President of the United States and the American people as public affairs officers in the Department of the Treasury. Using interviews conducted with political appointees who served as Treasury spokespeople during the administrations of Presidents Barack Obama and George W. Bush, civil servants who served in public affairs for the Treasury, and Treasury reporters who interacted frequently with the government officials, the study finds that civil servants better advance the goals of the President in the press than the political appointees personally selected by the President. This is the case because civil servants have greater knowledge of the policies they advocate and because reporters apply greater skepticism to the arguments of political appointees because reporters assume that appointees are always attempting to advance political agendas - a phenomenon this study calls the appointee discount. While scholars have previously argued that presidents accept the lower competence of appointees in order to attain their greater loyalty, this study suggests that no such tradeoff exists. It finds that political appointees and civil servants leak information to the press that does not serve the interests of the President with roughly the same frequency. The study also finds that civil servants better serve the interests of the American people in such roles. The study finds that neither political appointees nor civil servants in the Treasury\u27s public affairs department are conducting the permanent campaign to build support for the President that White House aides have been accused of practicing, by governing based upon public opinion polls and appealing to the emotions, as opposed to the reason, of the American people. However, political appointees are significantly more likely to withhold information requested by reporters than civil servants

Feasibility, and Resiliency, and Economic Impacts of Energy Storage in Urban Water Systems: Case Study of Cleveland, Tennessee

This research reduces the knowledge gap around how the water-energy nexus can be applied at the urban level, clarifying how a city water distribution system might be used to offset community energy consumption. The created methodology includes 3 research objectives. First, model scenarios are developed to determine opportunities for energy storage in urban water systems. Then, how increased energy storage capacity impacts water system resiliency is examined. Finally, the financial implications of scenarios are calculated.A closed-loop water system model (EPANET2) simulates Cleveland, Tennessee’s water distribution system, resolved to the neighborhood scale. Sectoral aggregated hourly energy use data provides a comparison baseline for storage scenarios. Storage is injected into the water model in concentrated and distributed configurations to understand which is more effective at shaving peak energy demands, and which is more effective at increasing water system resiliency. Configurations are assigned costs, to understand how feasible it is to increase energy storage in water systems over local utility planning and financing horizons.Key findings include: (1) concentrated water storage configurations can generate significantly more electricity than distributed storage configurations, because they can be designed primarily for energy generation, not primarily to meet demand and to maintain pressure; (2) distributed water storage configurations can be more resilient to the chronic stress of population growth, because increasing storage throughout the water system is more effective at maintaining water system pressures and meeting increasing demand; and (3) neither concentrated nor distributed water storage configurations are cost effective within local utility planning and financing horizons, because the payback periods far exceed that 20-year timeframe.This research fills a knowledge gap around the scale at which small pumped hydro-generation systems can be effective at reducing community electrical demands. It clarifies the impacts of various storage configurations on water system resiliency, and how fiscally solvent using the water system to store energy might be. It concludes that small-scale hydro in an urban water system is viable at the micro-scale on a case by case basis, but not fiscally feasible as a tool to shave peak community energy demands