10,496 research outputs found

    Multi-objective optimization-based collective opinion generation with fairness concern

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    open access articleThe generation of collective opinion based on probability distribution function (PDF) aggregation is gradually becoming a critical approach for tackling immense and delicate assessment and evaluation tasks in decision analysis. However, the existing collective opinion generation approaches fail to model the behavioral characteristics associated with individuals, and thus, cannot reflect the fairness concerns among them when they consciously or unconsciously incorporate their judgments on the fairness level of distribution into the formulations of individual opinions. In this study, we propose a multiobjective optimization-driven collective opinion generation approach that generalizes the bi-objective optimization-based PDF aggregation paradigm. In doing so, we adapt the notion of fairness concern utility function to characterize the influence of fairness inclusion and take its maximization as an additional objective, together with the criteria of consensus and confidence levels, to achieve in generating collective opinion. The formulation of fairness concern is then transformed into the congregation of individual fairness concern utilities in the use of aggregation functions. We regard the generalized extended Bonferroni mean (BM) as an elaborated framework for aggregating individual fairness concern utilities. In such way, we establish the concept of BM-type collective fairness concern utility to empower multiobjective optimization-driven collective opinion generation approach with the capacity of modeling different structures associated with the expert group with fairness concern. The application of the proposed fairness-aware framework in the maturity assessment of building information modeling demonstrates the effectiveness and efficiency of multiobjective optimization-driven approach for generating collective opinion when accomplishing complicated assessment and evaluation tasks with data scarcity

    Bayesian Forecasting in Economics and Finance: A Modern Review

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    The Bayesian statistical paradigm provides a principled and coherent approach to probabilistic forecasting. Uncertainty about all unknowns that characterize any forecasting problem -- model, parameters, latent states -- is able to be quantified explicitly, and factored into the forecast distribution via the process of integration or averaging. Allied with the elegance of the method, Bayesian forecasting is now underpinned by the burgeoning field of Bayesian computation, which enables Bayesian forecasts to be produced for virtually any problem, no matter how large, or complex. The current state of play in Bayesian forecasting in economics and finance is the subject of this review. The aim is to provide the reader with an overview of modern approaches to the field, set in some historical context; and with sufficient computational detail given to assist the reader with implementation.Comment: The paper is now published online at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2023.05.00

    ACOUSTIC SPEECH MARKERS FOR TRACKING CHANGES IN HYPOKINETIC DYSARTHRIA ASSOCIATED WITH PARKINSON’S DISEASE

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    Previous research has identified certain overarching features of hypokinetic dysarthria associated with Parkinson’s Disease and found it manifests differently between individuals. Acoustic analysis has often been used to find correlates of perceptual features for differential diagnosis. However, acoustic parameters that are robust for differential diagnosis may not be sensitive to tracking speech changes. Previous longitudinal studies have had limited sample sizes or variable lengths between data collection. This study focused on using acoustic correlates of perceptual features to identify acoustic markers able to track speech changes in people with Parkinson’s Disease (PwPD) over six months. The thesis presents how this study has addressed limitations of previous studies to make a novel contribution to current knowledge. Speech data was collected from 63 PwPD and 47 control speakers using an online podcast software at two time points, six months apart (T1 and T2). Recordings of a standard reading passage, minimal pairs, sustained phonation, and spontaneous speech were collected. Perceptual severity ratings were given by two speech and language therapists for T1 and T2, and acoustic parameters of voice, articulation and prosody were investigated. Two analyses were conducted: a) to identify which acoustic parameters can track perceptual speech changes over time and b) to identify which acoustic parameters can track changes in speech intelligibility over time. An additional attempt was made to identify if these parameters showed group differences for differential diagnosis between PwPD and control speakers at T1 and T2. Results showed that specific acoustic parameters in voice quality, articulation and prosody could differentiate between PwPD and controls, or detect speech changes between T1 and T2, but not both factors. However, specific acoustic parameters within articulation could detect significant group and speech change differences across T1 and T2. The thesis discusses these results, their implications, and the potential for future studies

    When Personalization Harms: Reconsidering the Use of Group Attributes in Prediction

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    Machine learning models are often personalized with categorical attributes that are protected, sensitive, self-reported, or costly to acquire. In this work, we show models that are personalized with group attributes can reduce performance at a group level. We propose formal conditions to ensure the "fair use" of group attributes in prediction tasks by training one additional model -- i.e., collective preference guarantees to ensure that each group who provides personal data will receive a tailored gain in performance in return. We present sufficient conditions to ensure fair use in empirical risk minimization and characterize failure modes that lead to fair use violations due to standard practices in model development and deployment. We present a comprehensive empirical study of fair use in clinical prediction tasks. Our results demonstrate the prevalence of fair use violations in practice and illustrate simple interventions to mitigate their harm.Comment: ICML 2023 Ora

    Resilience and food security in a food systems context

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    This open access book compiles a series of chapters written by internationally recognized experts known for their in-depth but critical views on questions of resilience and food security. The book assesses rigorously and critically the contribution of the concept of resilience in advancing our understanding and ability to design and implement development interventions in relation to food security and humanitarian crises. For this, the book departs from the narrow beaten tracks of agriculture and trade, which have influenced the mainstream debate on food security for nearly 60 years, and adopts instead a wider, more holistic perspective, framed around food systems. The foundation for this new approach is the recognition that in the current post-globalization era, the food and nutritional security of the world’s population no longer depends just on the performance of agriculture and policies on trade, but rather on the capacity of the entire (food) system to produce, process, transport and distribute safe, affordable and nutritious food for all, in ways that remain environmentally sustainable. In that context, adopting a food system perspective provides a more appropriate frame as it incites to broaden the conventional thinking and to acknowledge the systemic nature of the different processes and actors involved. This book is written for a large audience, from academics to policymakers, students to practitioners

    Endogenous measures for contextualising large-scale social phenomena: a corpus-based method for mediated public discourse

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    This work presents an interdisciplinary methodology for developing endogenous measures of group membership through analysis of pervasive linguistic patterns in public discourse. Focusing on political discourse, this work critiques the conventional approach to the study of political participation, which is premised on decontextualised, exogenous measures to characterise groups. Considering the theoretical and empirical weaknesses of decontextualised approaches to large-scale social phenomena, this work suggests that contextualisation using endogenous measures might provide a complementary perspective to mitigate such weaknesses. This work develops a sociomaterial perspective on political participation in mediated discourse as affiliatory action performed through language. While the affiliatory function of language is often performed consciously (such as statements of identity), this work is concerned with unconscious features (such as patterns in lexis and grammar). This work argues that pervasive patterns in such features that emerge through socialisation are resistant to change and manipulation, and thus might serve as endogenous measures of sociopolitical contexts, and thus of groups. In terms of method, the work takes a corpus-based approach to the analysis of data from the Twitter messaging service whereby patterns in users’ speech are examined statistically in order to trace potential community membership. The method is applied in the US state of Michigan during the second half of 2018—6 November having been the date of midterm (i.e. non-Presidential) elections in the United States. The corpus is assembled from the original posts of 5,889 users, who are nominally geolocalised to 417 municipalities. These users are clustered according to pervasive language features. Comparing the linguistic clusters according to the municipalities they represent finds that there are regular sociodemographic differentials across clusters. This is understood as an indication of social structure, suggesting that endogenous measures derived from pervasive patterns in language may indeed offer a complementary, contextualised perspective on large-scale social phenomena

    Knowledge-based Modelling of Additive Manufacturing for Sustainability Performance Analysis and Decision Making

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    Additiivista valmistusta on pidetty käyttökelpoisena monimutkaisissa geometrioissa, topologisesti optimoiduissa kappaleissa ja kappaleissa joita on muuten vaikea valmistaa perinteisillä valmistusprosesseilla. Eduista huolimatta, yksi additiivisen valmistuksen vallitsevista haasteista on ollut heikko kyky tuottaa toimivia osia kilpailukykyisillä tuotantomäärillä perinteisen valmistuksen kanssa. Mallintaminen ja simulointi ovat tehokkaita työkaluja, jotka voivat auttaa lyhentämään suunnittelun, rakentamisen ja testauksen sykliä mahdollistamalla erilaisten tuotesuunnitelmien ja prosessiskenaarioiden nopean analyysin. Perinteisten ja edistyneiden valmistusteknologioiden mahdollisuudet ja rajoitukset määrittelevät kuitenkin rajat uusille tuotekehityksille. Siksi on tärkeää, että suunnittelijoilla on käytettävissään menetelmät ja työkalut, joiden avulla he voivat mallintaa ja simuloida tuotteen suorituskykyä ja siihen liittyvän valmistusprosessin suorituskykyä, toimivien korkea arvoisten tuotteiden toteuttamiseksi. Motivaation tämän väitöstutkimuksen tekemiselle on, meneillään oleva kehitystyö uudenlaisen korkean lämpötilan suprajohtavan (high temperature superconducting (HTS)) magneettikokoonpanon kehittämisessä, joka toimii kryogeenisissä lämpötiloissa. Sen monimutkaisuus edellyttää monitieteisen asiantuntemuksen lähentymistä suunnittelun ja prototyyppien valmistuksen aikana. Tutkimus hyödyntää tietopohjaista mallinnusta valmistusprosessin analysoinnin ja päätöksenteon apuna HTS-magneettien mekaanisten komponenttien suunnittelussa. Tämän lisäksi, tutkimus etsii mahdollisuuksia additiivisen valmistuksen toteutettavuuteen HTS-magneettikokoonpanon tuotannossa. Kehitetty lähestymistapa käyttää fysikaalisiin kokeisiin perustuvaa tuote-prosessi-integroitua mallinnusta tuottamaan kvantitatiivista ja laadullista tietoa, joka määrittelee prosessi-rakenne-ominaisuus-suorituskyky-vuorovaikutuksia tietyille materiaali-prosessi-yhdistelmille. Tuloksina saadut vuorovaikutukset integroidaan kaaviopohjaiseen malliin, joka voi auttaa suunnittelutilan tutkimisessa ja täten auttaa varhaisessa suunnittelu- ja valmistuspäätöksenteossa. Tätä varten testikomponentit valmistetaan käyttämällä kahta metallin additiivista valmistus prosessia: lankakaarihitsaus additiivista valmistusta (wire arc additive manufacturing) ja selektiivistä lasersulatusta (selective laser melting). Rakenteellisissa sovelluksissa yleisesti käytetyistä metalliseoksista (ruostumaton teräs, pehmeä teräs, luja niukkaseosteinen teräs, alumiini ja kupariseokset) testataan niiden mekaaniset, lämpö- ja sähköiset ominaisuudet. Lisäksi tehdään metalliseosten mikrorakenteen karakterisointi, jotta voidaan ymmärtää paremmin valmistusprosessin parametrien vaikutusta materiaalin ominaisuuksiin. Integroitu mallinnustapa yhdistää kerätyn kokeellisen tiedon, olemassa olevat analyyttiset ja empiiriset vuorovaikutus suhteet, sekä muut tietopohjaiset mallit (esim. elementtimallit, koneoppimismallit) päätöksenteon tukijärjestelmän muodossa, joka mahdollistaa optimaalisen materiaalin, valmistustekniikan, prosessiparametrien ja muitten ohjausmuuttujien valinnan, lopullisen 3d-tulosteun komponentin halutun rakenteen, ominaisuuksien ja suorituskyvyn saavuttamiseksi. Valmistuspäätöksenteko tapahtuu todennäköisyysmallin, eli Bayesin verkkomallin toteuttamisen kautta, joka on vankka, modulaarinen ja sovellettavissa muihin valmistusjärjestelmiin ja tuotesuunnitelmiin. Väitöstyössä esitetyn mallin kyky parantaa additiivisien valmistusprosessien suorituskykyä ja laatua, täten edistää kestävän tuotannon tavoitteita.Additive manufacturing (AM) has been considered viable for complex geometries, topology optimized parts, and parts that are otherwise difficult to produce using conventional manufacturing processes. Despite the advantages, one of the prevalent challenges in AM has been the poor capability of producing functional parts at production volumes that are competitive with traditional manufacturing. Modelling and simulation are powerful tools that can help shorten the design-build-test cycle by enabling rapid analysis of various product designs and process scenarios. Nevertheless, the capabilities and limitations of traditional and advanced manufacturing technologies do define the bounds for new product development. Thus, it is important that the designers have access to methods and tools that enable them to model and simulate product performance and associated manufacturing process performance to realize functional high value products. The motivation for this dissertation research stems from ongoing development of a novel high temperature superconducting (HTS) magnet assembly, which operates in cryogenic environment. Its complexity requires the convergence of multidisciplinary expertise during design and prototyping. The research applies knowledge-based modelling to aid manufacturing process analysis and decision making in the design of mechanical components of the HTS magnet. Further, it explores the feasibility of using AM in the production of the HTS magnet assembly. The developed approach uses product-process integrated modelling based on physical experiments to generate quantitative and qualitative information that define process-structure-property-performance interactions for given material-process combinations. The resulting interactions are then integrated into a graph-based model that can aid in design space exploration to assist early design and manufacturing decision-making. To do so, test components are fabricated using two metal AM processes: wire and arc additive manufacturing and selective laser melting. Metal alloys (stainless steel, mild steel, high-strength low-alloyed steel, aluminium, and copper alloys) commonly used in structural applications are tested for their mechanical-, thermal-, and electrical properties. In addition, microstructural characterization of the alloys is performed to further understand the impact of manufacturing process parameters on material properties. The integrated modelling approach combines the collected experimental data, existing analytical and empirical relationships, and other data-driven models (e.g., finite element models, machine learning models) in the form of a decision support system that enables optimal selection of material, manufacturing technology, process parameters, and other control variables for attaining desired structure, property, and performance characteristics of the final printed component. The manufacturing decision making is performed through implementation of a probabilistic model i.e., a Bayesian network model, which is robust, modular, and can be adapted for other manufacturing systems and product designs. The ability of the model to improve throughput and quality of additive manufacturing processes will boost sustainable manufacturing goals

    Modelling, Monitoring, Control and Optimization for Complex Industrial Processes

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    This reprint includes 22 research papers and an editorial, collected from the Special Issue "Modelling, Monitoring, Control and Optimization for Complex Industrial Processes", highlighting recent research advances and emerging research directions in complex industrial processes. This reprint aims to promote the research field and benefit the readers from both academic communities and industrial sectors

    One Small Step for Generative AI, One Giant Leap for AGI: A Complete Survey on ChatGPT in AIGC Era

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    OpenAI has recently released GPT-4 (a.k.a. ChatGPT plus), which is demonstrated to be one small step for generative AI (GAI), but one giant leap for artificial general intelligence (AGI). Since its official release in November 2022, ChatGPT has quickly attracted numerous users with extensive media coverage. Such unprecedented attention has also motivated numerous researchers to investigate ChatGPT from various aspects. According to Google scholar, there are more than 500 articles with ChatGPT in their titles or mentioning it in their abstracts. Considering this, a review is urgently needed, and our work fills this gap. Overall, this work is the first to survey ChatGPT with a comprehensive review of its underlying technology, applications, and challenges. Moreover, we present an outlook on how ChatGPT might evolve to realize general-purpose AIGC (a.k.a. AI-generated content), which will be a significant milestone for the development of AGI.Comment: A Survey on ChatGPT and GPT-4, 29 pages. Feedback is appreciated ([email protected]
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