An iconic approach to representing climate change

In order to meet the UK Government's 60% greenhouse gas emissions reduction target, there is a need for non-experts to be meaningfully engaged with the issue of climate change. This thesis investigates the value of engaging non-experts with climate change at the individual level. Research demonstrates that individuals perceive climate change as temporally and spatially remote, and not of personal concern. There are psychological, social and institutional barriers to meaningful engagement with climate change. More effective methods for engaging the public with climate change are needed which address the psychological barriers to change. An 'iconic' approach was developed to harness the emotive and visual power of climate icons with a rigorous scientific analysis of climate impacts under a different climate future. 'I~ons' are defined as tangible entities which will be impacted by climate change, considered worthy of respect by the viewer, and to which the viewer can relate to and feel empathy· for. Such icons already exist: for example, melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet or Thermohaline Circulation shutdown. However, these 'expert-led' icons have failed to engage non-experts. The selection of nonexpert icons enables individuals to engage with climate change through their personal perceptions and values. A robust sourcing for 'non-expert icons' was carried out using focus groups and online survey methodologies. A suite of icons representative of the reasoning behind individuals' non-expert icons was selected. Expert-led icons were identified from 'Sleeping 9iants' emerging from the Exeter Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change conference. Impact assessments were then carried out for the suite of expert-led and non-expert icons under a specified greenhouse gas emissions scenario and to an imaginable timescale. Methodologies used to investigate climate impacts on the icons included a survey of expert opinion, quantitative modelling and spatial analysis using a Geographic Information System (GIS). The cognitive and affective impact of the non-expert and expert-led icons upon individuals was investigated through an evaluative pre/post test workshop. The expert-led icons· generally disengaged individuals. Expert-led icons had little personal impact and invoked emotions such as helplessness or boredom, and were considered too scientific or complex. Conversely, non-expert icons tended to impact upon the individual, the local area or nature; and invoked affective and cognitive engagement with climate change.EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo

The impact of future sea-level rise on the London-Penzance railway line

The coastal section of the London to Penzance railway line (Dawlish-Teignmouth) lies very close to sea level and has been susceptible to frequent closure during high seas and storm events. As the main railway connection for the southwest of England to the rest of Great Britain, it is a vital transport link for the Devon and Cornwall economy. Current understanding of future sea-level rise in the region is compromised by a lack of reliable geological data on which to establish accurate future sea-level projections. Furthermore, the impacts – in engineering and economic terms – of potential sea-level change on the long-term functioning of the main railway are unclear, and future policy making and planning are compromised by a similar gap in scientific knowledge. The central aim of this thesis is to establish the extent to which future sea-level changes will impact upon the Southwest’s main railway line. This aim carries three objectives: (1) to establish accurate sea-level trends over the last 4000 years (late Holocene) in order to validate geophysical models used in current future sea-level projections in the southwest of England; (2) to establish the likely impacts of future sea-level change on the functioning of the Dawlish-Teignmouth railway line; and (3) to integrate climate and socio-economic futures (scenarios) in an internally consistent manner for future use in regional policy debates. In addressing these objectives, we estimate that during the last 2000 years the coast of south Devon has subsided at a rate of ~1.1 mm/yr, generating a relative sea-level rise of ~0.9 mm/yr. The geophysical model (used to determine regional sea-level projections) underestimates the geologically estimated coastal subsidence rate by only 17%, which would generate an additional sea-level rise, compared to predicted values, of 0.014 m by 2100. Based on an empirical trend between increases in sea-level changes and rail functioning during the last 40 years, the corrected sea-level projections provide input for establishing future days with line restrictions due to overtopping on the Southwest Mainline. Impacts to both the Southwest economy (e.g., rail users) and the infrastructure owners have been determined, and integrating these forecasts with socio-economic scenarios (SES) has highlighted the important interaction between climate and socio-economic trends and future vulnerability. In a worst case scenario (e.g., high emissions), rail services are predicted to be disrupted (on average) for around 35% of the winter by 2060. By this stage, the cost of these disruptions will have exceeded the capital needed for constructing a new alternative inland route.Great Western Research, Network Rail, Devon and Cornwall County Council

Utilising scenarios to facilitate multi-objective land use modelling for broadland, UK, to 2100

Landscapes that we see today will change in the future. Scenarios are used as a method for dealing with uncertainties in change and to provide plausible descriptions of our future world. A number of projects have utilised scenarios and a modelling-based approach to quantitatively investigate land use change at the national/regional-scale using a GIS. However, the coarse-scale of such land use data can render outputs inapplicable within local, often environmentally sensitive, landscapes. Improving data resolution allows us to investigate alternative potential futures at greater detail thereby providing vital input into policy and future decision-making. It may also facilitate localised studies of habitat fragmentation connectivity and visualisation. This paper utilises scenarios and regional-scale land use change data to facilitate a GIS-based model of land use change within a sensitive wetland environment. Land use change data from the RegIS project is localised to the study area in Broadland, UK. Areal totals, from the land use change data, are replicated within 0.01% of areal totals prescribed, enabling very spatially detailed land use maps to be developed. This work represents a locally explicit realisation of coarser regional-scale land use change data using an integrated GIS-Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (GIS-MCDA) methodology

Visualising Change in the Tamar Valley: Participatory Processes for Generating 3D Visual Tools to Communicate Sea-level Rise

This thesis introduces and analyses a unique approach which involved iteratively engaging with stakeholders to generate a film about sea-level rise at a heritage site. The project used fine-scale remote sensing techniques, including airborne and terrestrial laser scanning (TLS), to produce spatially accurate and realistic 3D digital visualisations of projected sea level rise at Cotehele Quay, a site on the River Tamar in Cornwall which is owned and managed by the National Trust. Area residents and stakeholders were involved in a series of focus groups which provided guidance on the integration of the spatial models into a short film. This thesis makes an original contribution to knowledge about how non-scientific audiences understand and interpret visual realism and spatial accuracy when engaged with the process of developing such a tool. Ultimately, the thesis proposes a new kind of visual realism based on this knowledge, known as ‘participatory realism’. The main output of this research was a film, ‘Changing Tides at Cotehele Quay’, which is presently being used by the National Trust as part of their wider communication toolkit. In addition to reflecting on the production of the film, the thesis makes the argument that at present TLS is not being proactively used to engage wider audiences. The research explored how TLS and other spatial data can be used in settings which are more public-facing; the thesis analyses the results of this innovative practice and interrogates the way in which people interacted and responded in the course of their participation

Underground mining of aggregates. Main report

This report examines the economic feasibility of underground mining for crushed rock aggregates in the UK, but particularly in the London, South East and East of England regions (the South East area of England). These regions import substantial volumes of crushed rock, primarily from the East Midlands and South West regions, requiring relatively long transport distances to market for this bulk commodity. A key part of the research was to determine whether or not aggregate could be produced and delivered to a local market from an underground aggregates operation at a cost comparable with that for production and transport of the commodity from traditional surface quarries located further afield. In essence the investigation asked – could the reduced transport costs compensate for the higher production costs underground so that underground crushed rock aggregates producers can compete with the established Leicestershire and Somerset surface quarries exporting to the South East? Work Programme The research effort involved establishing and verifying cost models for aggregates production, stone processing (sizing and sorting), haulage of product to market, environmental impact mitigation, health and safety, decommissioning and restoration. Another major element of the work was the re-examination of the BGS exploratory borehole and geophysical databases to identify potential areas of crushed rock aggregates resource at depth in the South East area of England. Land use pressure is typically higher in this area of England than elsewhere so another major part of the research was the identification of potential concurrent uses of land around the surface facilities of underground aggregates mines. The value, development costs for specific developments and determination of yields expected, from these uses were estimated. These were also used to investigate potential economic benefits associated with after uses of remediated surface land above potential underground aggregates mines and also for the new underground space that would be created. Key technical issues such as subsidence within relatively heavily populated areas of the South East area of England were also addressed. Economic Results The discounted cost of aggregate delivered at a discount rate of 10% was the metric used to appraise the options. This is the price of aggregate that leads to a zero net present value of project cash flows realised over the aggregates project life. The results show that the discounted costs of aggregate delivered to a local South East area of England market from an underground mine producing 3.5 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of crushed rock aggregates, are in the range of £13.03 per tonne to £13.93 per tonne for the top six prospect locations. These are greater than the corresponding cost for a “reference” quarry in Leicestershire producing 3.5 MTPA (£10.95 per tonne), but lower than a “reference” quarry in Leicestershire producing 1.25 MTPA (£16.48 per tonne). These figures indicate that underground crushed rock aggregate mines located within the South East area of England may be able to compete for a share in the overall market by replacing / displacing aggregate imported from the quarries in Leicestershire and Somerset producing around or less than 1.25 MTPA. The surprise in these figures is not really that the more remote surface quarry has a lower discounted cost of aggregate delivered, but that the values for the quarry and underground mine are so close. The capital intensity for the development of underground aggregates mines was found to be higher than that required for surface quarries of comparable scale, by a factor ranging from 1.33 to 1.65 and thus may represent a disincentive for aggregates operators. Carbon Emissions The total carbon emissions of the ‘reference’ 3.5 MTPA quarry in Leicestershire were estimated at 9.28 kg CO2/tonne aggregate delivered and this is to be compared with carbon emissions for the 150 metre deep underground mines serving the local market which were estimated at 9.31 kg CO2/tonne delivered for a Bletchley prospect using an adit to access the sub-surface and 14.25 kg CO2/tonne delivered for a prospect based on the Chitty bore hole using a shaft. Depth of the mine is a key factor in determination of the relative carbon emissions from each of the underground mining operations considered as electricity consumption for ventilation, pumping and winding is proportional to depth. Recommendations The current research generated seven principal recommendations which are discussed in detail in the concluding section of the report. These are: Appraise policy incentives for underground aggregates mining. Conduct an industry-wide consultation on findings from the current research. Obtain public and stakeholder opinion on new uses for underground space. Conduct research to reducing the energy intensity of mine services. Develop a deep level aggregates-specific drilling campaign. Investigate underground aggregates mines developed from existing surface quarries. Investigate underground aggregates as co-products of industrial minerals mining

Modelling peatlands as a complex adaptive systems

PhDA new conceptual approach to modelling peatlands, DigiBog, involves a Complex Adaptive Systems consideration of raised bogs. A new computer hydrological model is presented, tested, and its capabilities in simulating hydrological behaviour in a real bog demonstrated. The hydrological model, while effective as a stand-alone modelling tool, provides a conceptual and algorithmic structure for ecohydrological models presented later. Using DigiBog architecture to build a cellular model of peatland patterning dynamics, various rulesets were experimented with to assess their effectiveness in predicting patterns. Contrary to findings by previous authors, the ponding model did not predict patterns under steady hydrological conditions. None of the rulesets presented offered an improvement over the existing nutrient-scarcity model. Sixteen shallow peat cores from a Swedish raised bog were analysed to investigate the relationship between cumulative peat decomposition and hydraulic conductivity, a relationship previously neglected in models of peatland patterning and peat accumulation. A multivariate analysis showed depth to be a stronger control on hydraulic conductivity than cumulative decomposition, reflecting the role of compression in closing pore spaces. The data proved to be largely unsuitable for parameterising models of peatland dynamics, due mainly to problems in core selection. However, the work showed that hydraulic conductivity could be expressed quantitatively as a function of other physical variables such as depth and cumulative decomposition. DigiBog architecture was used to build a simple, vertical, ecohydrological model of long-term peat accumulation. As model complexity was increased under a self-organisation approach, model predictions of peat accumulation rates and surface wetness changed dramatically, revealing the importance of feedbacks between peatland hydrological behaviour and peat physical properties. This work may have important implications for palaeoclimatic reconstructions which assume peatland surface wetness to be a reliable climatic indicator. The expansion of the model to include horizontal space altered model behaviour in quantitative and qualitative terms

Using Sound to Represent Uncertainty in Spatial Data

There is a limit to the amount of spatial data that can be shown visually in an effective manner, particularly when the data sets are extensive or complex. Using sound to represent some of these data (sonification) is a way of avoiding visual overload. This thesis creates a conceptual model showing how sonification can be used to represent spatial data and evaluates a number of elements within the conceptual model. These are examined in three different case studies to assess the effectiveness of the sonifications. Current methods of using sonification to represent spatial data have been restricted by the technology available and have had very limited user testing. While existing research shows that sonification can be done, it does not show whether it is an effective and useful method of representing spatial data to the end user. A number of prototypes show how spatial data can be sonified, but only a small handful of these have performed any user testing beyond the authors’ immediate colleagues (where n > 4). This thesis creates and evaluates sonification prototypes, which represent uncertainty using three different case studies of spatial data. Each case study is evaluated by a significant user group (between 45 and 71 individuals) who completed a task based evaluation with the sonification tool, as well as reporting qualitatively their views on the effectiveness and usefulness of the sonification method. For all three case studies, using sound to reinforce information shown visually results in more effective performance from the majority of the participants than traditional visual methods. Participants who were familiar with the dataset were much more effective at using the sonification than those who were not and an interactive sonification which requires significant involvement from the user was much more effective than a static sonification, which did not provide significant user engagement. Using sounds with a clear and easily understood scale (such as piano notes) was important to achieve an effective sonification. These findings are used to improve the conceptual model developed earlier in this thesis and highlight areas for future research

An economic comparison of forest recreation, timber and carbon fixing values with agriculture in Wales: a geographical information systems approach

The research examines the financial and economic viability of transferring land presently under agricultural use into multipurpose farm-forestry in Wales. Three woodland benefit streams are examined in detail: the value of open-access recreation; the production of timber and; the net carbon storage generated by afforestation. Modelling of the spatial variability determining the production of these benefits is enhanced by the novel application of a geographical information system(GIS). Monetary evaluation of non-market recreation benefits is achieved by reference to both the contingent valuation and travel cost methods with prior studies being reviewed and new work presented. By contrast carbon storage benefits are valued purely by reference to the existing literature. Both of these analyses yield social values whereas our study of timber production produces both shadow and market valuations. Our GIS-based methodology is also applied to the modelling of agricultural values for the two major farm sectors (mainly sheep and mainly milk production) of the study area. Again both social and financial values are calculated. By comparison of the various values estimated across the above analyses we estimate both the financial and social values associated with potential transfers of land from conventional agriculture into farm-forestry. The financial values generated by our analysis support the present low levels of conversion out of agriculture. However, the social values estimated suggest that the present situation constitutes a significant market failure, particularly in the mainly sheep farming sector where cost benefit analysis suggests that substantial net social benefits could be generated through conversions into multi-purpose woodland

An economic comparison of forest recreation, timber and carbon fixing values with agriculture in Wales: a geographical information systems approach

The research examines the financial and economic viability of transferring land presently under agricultural use into multipurpose farm-forestry in Wales. Three woodland benefit streams are examined in detail: the value of open-access recreation; the production of timber and; the net carbon storage generated by afforestation. Modelling of the spatial variability determining the production of these benefits is enhanced by the novel application of a geographical information system(GIS). Monetary evaluation of non-market recreation benefits is achieved by reference to both the contingent valuation and travel cost methods with prior studies being reviewed and new work presented. By contrast carbon storage benefits are valued purely by reference to the existing literature. Both of these analyses yield social values whereas our study of timber production produces both shadow and market valuations. Our GIS-based methodology is also applied to the modelling of agricultural values for the two major farm sectors (mainly sheep and mainly milk production) of the study area. Again both social and financial values are calculated. By comparison of the various values estimated across the above analyses we estimate both the financial and social values associated with potential transfers of land from conventional agriculture into farm-forestry. The financial values generated by our analysis support the present low levels of conversion out of agriculture. However, the social values estimated suggest that the present situation constitutes a significant market failure, particularly in the mainly sheep farming sector where cost benefit analysis suggests that substantial net social benefits could be generated through conversions into multi-purpose woodland