Traveller Behaviour: Decision making in an unpredictable world

This paper discusses the nature and consequences of uncertainty in transport systems. Drawing on work from a number of fields, it addresses travellers’ abilities to predict variable phenomena, their perception of uncertainty, their attitude to risk and the various strategies they might adopt in response to uncertainty. It is argued that despite the increased interest in the representation of uncertainty in transport systems, most models treat uncertainty as a purely statistical issue and ignore the psychological aspects of response to uncertainty. The principle theories and models currently used to predict travellers’ response to uncertainty are presented and number of alternative modelling approaches are outlined. It is argued that the current generation of predictive models do not provide an adequate basis for forecasting response to changes in the degree of uncertainty or for predicting the likely effect of providing additional information. A number of alternative modelling approaches are identified to deal with travellers’ acquisition of information, the definition of their choice set and their choice between the available options. The use of heuristic approaches is recommended as an alternative to more conventional probabilistic methods

An agent-based approach to modelling driver route choice behaviour under the influence of real-time information

This paper presents an agent-based approach to modelling individual driver behaviour under the influence of real-time traffic information. The driver behaviour models developed in this study are based on a behavioural survey of drivers which was conducted on a congested commuting corridor in Brisbane, Australia. Commuters' responses to travel information were analysed and a number of discrete choice models were developed to determine the factors influencing drivers' behaviour and their propensity to change route and adjust travel patterns. Based on the results obtained from the behavioural survey, the agent behaviour parameters which define driver characteristics, knowledge and preferences were identified and their values determined. A case study implementing a simple agent-based route choice decision model within a microscopic traffic simulation tool is also presented. Driver-vehicle units (DVUs) were modelled as autonomous software components that can each be assigned a set of goals to achieve and a database of knowledge comprising certain beliefs, intentions and preferences concerning the driving task. Each DVU provided route choice decision-making capabilities, based on perception of its environment, that were similar to the described intentions of the driver it represented. The case study clearly demonstrated the feasibility of the approach and the potential to develop more complex driver behavioural dynamics based on the belief-desire-intention agent architecture. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved

National and international freight transport models: overview and ideas for further development

This paper contains a review of the literature on freight transport models, focussing on the types of models that have been developed since the nineties for forecasting, policy simulation and project evaluation at the national and international level. Models for production, attraction, distribution, modal split and assignment are discussed in the paper. Furthermore, the paper also includes a number of ideas for future development, especially for the regional and urban components within national freight transport models

Integration of Real-time Traffic State Estimation and Dynamic Traffic Assignment with Applications to Advanced Traveller Information Systems

Accurate depiction of existing traffic states is essential to devise effective real-time traffic management strategies using Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS). Existing applications of Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTA) methods are mainly based on either the prediction from macroscopic traffic flow models or measurements from the sensors and do not take advantage of traffic state estimation techniques, which produce estimate of the traffic states with less uncertainty than the prediction or measurement alone. On the other hand, research studies highlighting estimation of real-time traffic state are focused only on traffic state estimation and have not utilized the estimated traffic state for DTA applications. This research introduces a framework which integrates real-time traffic state estimate with applications of DTA to optimize network performance during uncertain traffic conditions through traveller information system. The estimate of real-time traffic states is obtained by combining the prediction of traffic density using Cell Transmission Model (CTM) and the measurements from the traffic sensors in Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) recursive algorithm. The estimated traffic state is used for predicting travel times on available routes in a traffic network and the predicted travel times are communicated to the commuters by a variable message sign (VMS). In numerical experiments, the proposed estimation and information framework is applied to optimize network performance during traffic incident on a two route network. The proposed framework significantly improved the network performance and commuters’ travel time when compared with no-information scenario during the incident. The application of the formulated methodology is extended to model day-to-day dynamics of traffic flow and route choice with time-varying traffic demand. The day-to-day network performance is improved by providing accurate and reliable traveller information. The implementation of the proposed framework through numerical experiments shows a significant improvement in daily travel times and stability in day-to-day performance of the network when compared with no-information scenario. The use of model based real-time traffic state estimation in DTA models allows modelling and estimating behaviour parameters in DTA models which improves the accuracy of the modelling process. In this research, a framework is proposed to model commuters’ level of trust in the information provided which defines the weight given to the information by commuters while they update their perception about expected travel time. A methodology is formulated to model and estimate logit parameter for perception variation among commuters for expected travel time based on measurements from traffic sensors and estimated traffic state. The application of the proposed framework to a test network shows that the model accurately estimated the value of logit parameter when started with a different initial value of the parameter

Synergizing Roadway Infrastructure Investment with Digital Infrastructure for Infrastructure-Based Connected Vehicle Applications: Review of Current Status and Future Directions

The file attached to this record is the author's final peer reviewed version. The Publisher's final version can be found by following the DOI link.The safety, mobility, environmental and economic benefits of Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs) are potentially dramatic. However, realization of these benefits largely hinges on the timely upgrading of the existing transportation system. CAVs must be enabled to send and receive data to and from other vehicles and drivers (V2V communication) and to and from infrastructure (V2I communication). Further, infrastructure and the transportation agencies that manage it must be able to collect, process, distribute and archive these data quickly, reliably, and securely. This paper focuses on current digital roadway infrastructure initiatives and highlights the importance of including digital infrastructure investment alongside more traditional infrastructure investment to keep up with the auto industry's push towards this real time communication and data processing capability. Agencies responsible for transportation infrastructure construction and management must collaborate, establishing national and international platforms to guide the planning, deployment and management of digital infrastructure in their jurisdictions. This will help create standardized interoperable national and international systems so that CAV technology is not deployed in a haphazard and uncoordinated manner

The Development of a Common Investment Appraisal for Urban Transport Projects.

In December 1990 we were invited by Birmingham City Council and Centro to submit a proposal for an introductory study of the development of a common investment appraisal for urban transport projects. Many of the issues had arisen during the Birmingham Integrated Transport Study (BITS) in which we were involved, and in the subsequent assessment of light rail schemes of which we have considerable experience. In subsequent discussion, the objectives were identified as being:- (i) to identify, briefly, the weaknesses with existing appraisal techniques; (ii) to develop proposals for common methods for the social cost-benefit appraisal of both urban road and rail schemes which overcome these weaknesses; (iii) to develop complementary and consistent proposals for common methods of financial appraisal of such projects; (iv) to develop proposals for variants of the methods in (ii) and (iii) which are appropriate to schemes of differing complexity and cost; (v) to consider briefly methods of treating externalities, and performance against other public sector goals, which are consistent with those developed under (ii) to (iv) above; (vi) to recommend work to be done in the second phase of the study (beyond March 1991) on the provision of input to such evaluation methods from strategic and mode-specific models, and on the testing of the proposed evaluation methods. Such issues are particularly topical at present, and we have been able to draw, in our study, on experience of:- (i) evaluation methods developed for BITS and subsequent integrated transport studies (MVA) (ii) evaluation of individual light rail and heavy rail investment projects (ITS,MVA); (iii) the recommendations of AMA in "Changing Gear" (iv) advice to IPPR on appraisal methodology (ITS); (v) submissions to the House of Commons enquiry into "Roads for the Future" (ITS); (vi) advice to the National Audit Office (ITS) (vii) involvement in the SACTRA study of urban road appraisal (MVA, ITS

Use of Structural Equation Modelling and Neural Network to Analyse Shared Parking Choice Behaviour

The shared parking mode represents a feasible solution to the persistent problem of parking scarcity in urban areas. This paper aims to examine the shared parking choice behaviours using a combination of structural equation modelling (SEM) and neural network, taking into account both the parking location characteristics and the travellers’ characteristics. Data were collected from a commercial district in Nanjing, China, through an online questionnaire survey covering 11 factors affecting shared parking choice. The method involved two steps: firstly, SEM was applied to examine the influence of these factors on shared parking choice. Following this, the seven factors with the strongest correlation to shared parking choice were used to train a neural network model for shared parking prediction. This SEM-informed model was found to outperform a neural network model trained on all eleven factors across precision, recall, accuracy, F1 and AUC metrics. The research concluded that the selected factors significantly influence shared parking choice, reinforcing the hypothesis regarding the importance of parking location and traveller characteristics. These findings provide valuable insights to support the effective implementation and promotion of shared parking