Virtual fuel flow estimation in shipping: how to formulate and validate a model for time-dependent momentary fuel flow estimation by combining high-frequency GPS and meteorological data with low-frequency noon reports - a case study

This thesis validates a novel approach for virtual fuel flow estimation on commercial vessels, such as container ships, tankers, and bulkers. A model is fitted onto high-frequency GPS and meteorological data, and onto low-frequency crew-generated noon reports. The research design is a quantitative case study and utilizes two months of real-life vessel data from a single containership. Based on publicly available Python packages, the validation study examines the benefits of the modelling approach presented by Antola, Solonen, and Staboulis (2017). Stakeholders in the marine shipping industry are under increasing economic, environmental, and regulatory pressure to improve the energy efficiency of commercial vessels. A growing number of 3rd-party providers has entered the market and offers data- driven solutions for vessel performance monitoring and optimization. Most of them require tight integration to onboard systems to collect the necessary data. In a study on barriers to energy efficiency in shipping, Rehmatulla and Smith (2015) found that principal-agent- problems prevent a widespread diffusion of energy-efficient measures, even if they are cost- effective. Especially for small and chartered vessels, costly integration-based systems remain unfeasible. Consequently, a lightweight system is needed that can monitor vessel and crew performance, without being subject to the barriers to energy efficiency. Antola, Solonen, and Staboulis (2017) proposed a novel approach that uses virtual sensing techniques to model some of the quantities that require costly onboard integration in traditional solutions: vessel speed-through-water and instantaneous fuel flow rates. My validation study confirms that the proposed modelling approach provides reasonably accurate speed and fuel flow estimates that deviate on average by ca. 10% from the reference data. However, the modelled output is noisier and can be affected by prolonged periods of erroneous crew reporting. Yet, model-based speed-fuel-curves allow stakeholders to demonstrate a vessel’s operational profile for various speed and draft levels. The theoretical main contribution of my study is a transparent validation that highlights the benefits of the novel modeling technique by Antola, Solonen, and Staboulis (2017). For most customers, the alternative to the (slightly inaccurate) lightweight system is not a more accurate integration-based solution, but a sole reliance on crew-generated noon reports. The managerial implication of this study is therefore that the lightweight system offers reasonable accuracy, significant customer value, and a way to reduce the information asymmetry between charterer and ship owner; at a fraction of the price of established integration-based solutions

Models for an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries

This document is one outcome from a workshop held in Gizo in October 2010 attended by 82 representatives from government, NGO's private sector, and communities. The target audience for the document is primarily organizations planning to work with coastal communities of Solomon Islands to implement Community-Based Resource Management (CBRM). It is however also envisaged that the document will serve as a reference for communities to better understand what to expect from their partners and also for donors, to be informed about agreed approaches amongst Solomon Islands stakeholders. This document does not attempt to summarize all the outcomes of the workshop; rather it focuses on the Solomon Islands Coral Triangle Initiative (CTI) National Plan of Action (NPoA): Theme 1: Support and implementation of CBRM and specifically, the scaling up of CBRM in Solomon Islands. Most of the principles given in this document are derived from experiences in coastal communities and ecosystems as, until relatively recently, these have received most attention in Solomon Islands resource management. It is recognized however that the majority of these principles will be applicable to both coastal and terrestrial initiatives. This document synthesizes information provided by stakeholders at the October 2010 workshop and covers some basic principles of engagement and implementation that have been learned over more than twenty years of activities by the stakeholder partners in Solomon Islands. The document updates and expands on a summary of guiding principles for CBRM which was originally prepared by the Solomon Islands Locally Managed Marine Area Network (SILMMA) in 2007

Monitoring and modelling the effects of ecosystem engineers on ecosystem functioning

Biodiversity is crucial for supporting ecosystem functioning, yet some species play a disproportionate role in maintaining complex ecological processes. Ecosystem engineers are species that directly influence ecosystems by modifying biophysical environments, creating novel habitats, altering biogeochemical cycles, increasing biodiversity and/or modulating ecological processes. Although these species may substantially influence ecosystem functioning, their role is often overlooked and difficult to quantify. Understanding the status, dynamics and trends of ecosystem engineers is essential for mitigating biodiversity loss and maintaining healthy ecosystems. This review reveals the common but underappreciated roles that ecosystem engineers play in ecosystem functioning across many different taxa, biomes and ecological processes. We first synthesise how knowledge of ecosystem engineering improves our understanding of species interactions and the ecological processes underlying both ecosystem functioning and BEF relationships. We provide a conceptual model for addressing the effects of ecosystem engineers in BEF research and ecological dynamics. We provide a ‘how to’ analytical framework for monitoring and quantifying changes in ecosystem engineers and their effects on ecosystem functioning. This framework includes (i) what variables to measure, how and at which scale; (ii) experiments involving species exclusion or removal, introduction and comparative designs when experimental manipulation is not feasible and (iii) statistical, data-driven and theory-driven models. We discuss how to leverage ecosystem engineering in the context of current global change and ecosystem restoration efforts. Including ecosystem engineers in conservation and restoration programs, when implemented in the appropriate context and supported by an understanding of ecological mechanisms and processes, may be crucial for sustaining biological diversity and functional ecosystems

Alternative Energy Sources

The search for alternative sources of energy is an attempt to solve two of the main problems facing the modern world. Today's resources are mainly based on fossil flammable substances such as coal, oil, and natural gas. The first problem is related to the expected and observed depletion of deposits, not only those available but also less accessible. Another is related to global warming from emissions of greenhouse gases (mainly carbon dioxide) as well as emissions of other pollutants in the atmosphere. Mitigating the harmful effects of fossil fuel use is an obvious challenge for mankind. This Special Issue includes articles on the search for new raw materials and new technologies for obtaining energy, such as those existing in nature, methane hydrates, biomass, etc., new more efficient technologies for generating electricity, as well as analyses of the possibilities and conditions of use of these resources for practical applications

Alarm Forecasting in Natural Gas Pipelines

This thesis examines alarm forecasting methods for a natural gas production pipeline to assure the efficient transportation of high-quality natural gas. Natural gas production companies use pipelines to transport natural gas from the extraction well to a distribution point. Forecasting natural gas pipeline pressure alarms helps control room operators maintain a functioning pipeline and avoid costly down time. As gas enters the pipeline and travels to the distribution point, it is expected that the gas meets certain specifications set in place by either state law or the customer receiving the gas. If the gas meets these standards and is accepted at the distribution point, the pipeline is referred to as being in a steady-state. If the gas does not meet these standards, the production company runs the risk of being shut-in, or being unable to flow any more gas through the distribution point until the poor-quality gas is removed.Sensors are used to collect real-time gas quality information from within the pipe, and alarms are used to alert the control operators when a threshold is exceeded. If operators fail to keep the pipeline’s gas quality within an acceptable range, the company risks being shut¬¬-in or rupturing the pipeline. Predicting gas quality alarms enables operators to act earlier to avoid being shut-in and is a form of predictive maintenance. We forecast alarms by using a 10th-order autoregressive model, autoregressive model with exogenous variable, simple exponential smoothing with drift (Theta Method) and an artificial neural network with alarm thresholds. The alarm thresholds are defined by the production company and are occasionally adjusted to meet current environment conditions. The results of the alarm forecasting method show that we accurately forecast natural gas pipeline alarms up to a 30-minute time horizon. This translates into sensitivity rates that drop from around 100% at one minute to 82.7% at a 30-minute forecast horizon. This means that at 30 minutes, we correctly forecast 82.7% of the alarms. All alarm forecasting models outperform the state-or-the-art forecaster used by the production company, with the artificial neural network performing the best

Efficacy of Conservation Actions for Imperiled Colorado River Fishes in the Grand Canyon, Arizona

Many fishes are critically imperiled, particularly in their native rivers, due to human water use and dam construction, which can dramatically alter habitats and block fish migratory routes. The introduction of invasive sport-fishes that prey on native fish further threatens native species that maybe restricted to only a single river basin (i.e., “endemic”). To preserve native fishes in river systems with degraded habitats, managers need to understand the effects of conservation actions to ensure limited resources are applied effectively. Two commonly applied native fish conservation actions include removal of invasive fishes, and translocations of native fish from one place into another with suitable habitat to establish new populations.My primary research goals were 1) to assess the population-level native fish responses to invasive fish removal, 2) understand what factors lead to successful establishment of new endangered humpback chub populations through translocations of juveniles, and 3) to investigate alternative strategies for reducing invasive brown trout using angling, disturbance of eggs, and electrofishing, in multiple connected populations (i.e., trout move between them)experiencing different levels of warming and climate change. My research was conducted using data collected over 10 years in the Colorado River and its tributaries in Grand Canyon National Park. I found native fish populations increased by about 480% when invasive trout populations were reduced by 60% or more. Increases in native fish were also greatest in warmer areas in years when spring flooding occurred. Translocated humpback chub populations were limited when numbers of introduced rainbow trout were higher and when floods washed ash from a fire into one stream in 2014. However, I found flooding was generally beneficial to humpback chub, which was probably because additional food was washed into their habitats. Finally, while future declines in Colorado River reservoir storage and warming of streamflow may reduce brown trout, successful Grand Canyon-wide reductions would require increasing trout removals throughout the river system particularly in tributary climate change refuges. In summary, translocations can contribute toward native fish conservation, but continued invasive fish removal and protection of natural river flow are also critical to meeting conservation goals

Influence of real-time information provided by a mobile phone on the management of rural water supply quality

In South Africa, access to safe drinking water is a human right that is explicitly stated in the constitution. Most metro municipalities are meeting the drinking water quality targets, but the smaller rural environments are failing to provide water of acceptable drinking water quality. Reasons contributing to the high incidence of unacceptable water quality are the rural municipalities' inadequate institutional capacity and lack of management and monitoring of drinking water services. This study investigates the possibilities of supporting rural water service institutions to manage their remote water supply schemes better by addressing the challenge of distance monitoring. Through the creation of real-time information flow between the water service authorities and the water supply caretakers in remote villages, it is to be tested if better information can be received and the status of the rural water supply quality can be monitored. The improvement of information flow is based on introducing a mobile phone application. The hypothesis is that through improving the information flow, decisions on water supply management will be improved. Case study research was conducted in rural municipalities situated in the Northern Cape Province and Eastern Cape Province of South Africa. Four different municipalities were chosen to reveal the diverse municipal set-up and different challenges facing rural municipalities. Data was gathered through interviews conducted with the municipal mangers over a seven month period, as well as through field investigations. The findings reveal that the mobile reporting system has improved information flow from water supply caretakers to government service providers. The mobile application allowed for distance monitoring of rural water supply schemes. It has helped address the municipalities' institutional capacity problems by improving access to information relevant to decision making. Through the data records displayed on the mobile application, municipal mangers were able to track the supply caretakers' performance and subsequently hold them accountable. Through an increase in data availability, water quality failures were easily identified, resulting in improved confidence in the quality of rural water supply. The access to real-time information has improved the monitoring and communication of rural water quality. Early intervention and the management of non-compliance improved. The mobile technology provided the municipal managers with a tool to monitor their rural water supply schemes more regularly, but it also became apparent that the management of such schemes only improved if relevant action was taken based on the information received. Greater improvement was seen in municipalities where the tool was used consistently, where time was set aside to follow up on data warnings and protocols existed to follow up on non-compliance issues. Management of the resources did not improve in areas where management staff was severely overstretched and response strategies to problems were non-existent before the implementation of the tool

on the use of arima models for short term water tank levels forecasting

Abstract In this paper a statistical study on the time series of water levels measured, during 2014, in the water tank of Cesine, Avellino (Italy), is presented. In particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) forecasting methodology is applied to model and forecast the daily water levels. This technique combines the autoregression and the moving average approaches, with the possibility to differentiate the data, to make the series stationary. In order to better describe the trend, over time, of the water levels in the reservoir, three ARIMA models are calibrated, validated and compared: ARIMA (2,0,2), ARIMA (3,1,3), ARIMA (6,1,6). After a preliminary statistical characterization of the series, the models' parameters are calibrated on the data related to the first 11 months of 2014, in order to keep the last month of data for validating the results. For each model, a graphical comparison with the observed data is presented, together with the calculation of the summary statistics of the residuals and of some error metrics. The results are discussed and some further possible applications are highlighted in the conclusions

Revisiting QRS detection methodologies for portable, wearable, battery-operated, and wireless ECG systems

Cardiovascular diseases are the number one cause of death worldwide. Currently, portable battery-operated systems such as mobile phones with wireless ECG sensors have the potential to be used in continuous cardiac function assessment that can be easily integrated into daily life. These portable point-of-care diagnostic systems can therefore help unveil and treat cardiovascular diseases. The basis for ECG analysis is a robust detection of the prominent QRS complex, as well as other ECG signal characteristics. However, it is not clear from the literature which ECG analysis algorithms are suited for an implementation on a mobile device. We investigate current QRS detection algorithms based on three assessment criteria: 1) robustness to noise, 2) parameter choice, and 3) numerical efficiency, in order to target a universal fast-robust detector. Furthermore, existing QRS detection algorithms may provide an acceptable solution only on small segments of ECG signals, within a certain amplitude range, or amid particular types of arrhythmia and/or noise. These issues are discussed in the context of a comparison with the most conventional algorithms, followed by future recommendations for developing reliable QRS detection schemes suitable for implementation on battery-operated mobile devices.Mohamed Elgendi, Björn Eskofier, Socrates Dokos, Derek Abbot