Current Directions in the Climate Change Debate in the United States

human development, climate change

Models Needed to Assist in the Development of a National Fiber Supply Strategy for the 21st Century: Report of a Workshop

This discussion paper reports on a Workshop on Wood Fiber Supply Modeling held October 3-4, 1996 in Washington, DC. The purpose of this discussion paper is to provide an overview of some of the modeling work being done related to timber supply modeling and some of the issues related to the more useful application of wood fiber supply and projections models. This paper includes brief presentations of three commonly used long-term timber projections and forecasting models: the Timber Assessment Market Model (TAMM) of the Forest Service; the Cintrafor Global Trade Model (CGTM) of the University of Washington; and the Timber Supply Model (TSM) of Resources for the Future. Also, issues related to the useful of the models are addressed as well as a discussion of some applications of other timber or fiber projection models. The usefulness of the models are addressed from both a technical perspective and also from the perspective of their usefulness to various model users.

Inventory drivers in a pharmaceutical supply chain

In recent years, inventory reduction has been a key objective of pharmaceutical companies, especially within cost optimization initiatives. Pharmaceutical supply chains are characterized by volatile and unpredictable demands –especially in emergent markets-, high service levels, and complex, perishable finished-good portfolios, which makes keeping reasonable amounts of stock a true challenge. However, a one-way strategy towards zero-inventory is in reality inapplicable, due to the strategic nature and importance of the products being commercialised. Therefore, pharmaceutical supply chains are in need of new inventory strategies in order to remain competitive. Finished-goods inventory management in the pharmaceutical industry is closely related to the manufacturing systems and supply chain configurations that companies adopt. The factors considered in inventory management policies, however, do not always cover the full supply chain spectrum in which companies operate. This paper works under the pre-assumption that, in fact, there is a complex relationship between the inventory configurations that companies adopt and the factors behind them. The intention of this paper is to understand the factors driving high finished-goods inventory levels in pharmaceutical supply chains and assist supply chain managers in determining which of them can be influenced in order to reduce inventories to an optimal degree. Reasons for reducing inventory levels are found in high inventory holding and scrap related costs; in addition to lost sales for not being able to serve the customers with the adequate shelf life requirements. The thesis conducts a single case study research in a multi-national pharmaceutical company, which is used to examine typical inventory configurations and the factors affecting these configurations. This paper presents a framework that can assist supply chain managers in determining the most important inventory drivers in pharmaceutical supply chains. The findings in this study suggest that while external and downstream supply chain factors are recognized as being critical to pursue inventory optimization initiatives, pharmaceutical companies are oriented towards optimizing production processes and meeting regulatory requirements while still complying with high service levels, being internal factors the ones prevailing when making inventory management decisions. Furthermore, this paper investigates, through predictive modelling techniques, how various intrinsic and extrinsic factors influence the inventory configurations of the case study company. The study shows that inventory configurations are relatively unstable over time, especially in configurations that present high safety stock levels; and that production features and product characteristics are important explanatory factors behind high inventory levels. Regulatory requirements also play an important role in explaining the high strategic inventory levels that pharmaceutical companies hold

Devising a Corporate Facility Location Strategy to Maximize Shareholder Wealth

Location decisions should consider all related impacts upon a firm’s shareholder wealth. Overall, firm cost savings available at alternative locations need to be carefully examined in addition to a location’s impact on corporate sales revenues. This article reviews relevant literature, discusses recent location decision considerations for several companies and empirically tests a model seeking to measure the impact corporate relocation decisions have upon shareholder wealth. In addition, a classification and listing of corporate location considerations is put forth to supplement the anecdotal illustrations discussed herein. Together these represent a "primer" for professionals and executives involved in corporate facility location decisions.

Composite Leading Indicators for Ukraine: An Early Warning Model

The project has undertaken the following tasks: Based on an analysis of the pattern of growth of the Ukrainian economy since the end of the post-Soviet recession (the year 2000) we have formulated the hypotheses concerning the factors preceding/affecting the upturns and downturns (with a focus on the latter) of the country’s growth; We have studied international “best practice” in early warning indicators in order to design a similar system for Ukraine; We have selected the relevant indicators, consistent with our hypotheses and used a probit model in order to experiment with these indicators; The final set of indicators used in the model included the following lagged independent variables: changes in the value of export, changes in real Exchange rate of the hryvnya, producers’ price index adjusted for domestic price inflation index and the IMF’s metal price index, bank credit interest rate, changes in the industrial output of the European Union; our dependent variable (which was used as a proxy for the overall economic growth) was changes in real industrial output; The model was used to formulate a warning forecast for the Ukrainian economy for the second half of 2008 based on the data for the January 2000 – June 2008 period; all predictions for the second half of 2008 have delivered warning about a downturn of the Ukrainian economy; We ran a few additional experiments with the model, and We have recommended several further steps of analysis toward a full implementation and institutionalization of such a model in the near future.business cycle, forecasting, econometric model, Ukraine, Ukrainian economy, economic growth, GDP, early warning indicator