Real Options: Applications in Public Economics

This paper illustrates the use of real options principles to value prototypical resource and industryinvestment projects. It captures important competitive/strategic dimensions in a step-by-stepanalysis of investment decisions (options) under uncertainty. It compares and contrasts staticdiscounted cash flow analysis (DCF) with real options analysis using three case studies. The initialexample values a resource extraction process using static DCF and then compares the projectvaluation when future information is valued and acted upon. The second example considers a coaldevelopment and uses the binomial valuation approach to capture the option value associated withhaving the right but not the obligation to exit the development. It contrasts this valuation approachagainst static DCF and highlights that future royalty payments could be underestimated if based onthe standard DCF valuation. The third example analyses the impact of providing a subsidy forhybrid vehicle production to accelerate potential uncertain environmental benefits. Lastly, thesuitability of the standard financial and economic evaluation tools used by treasury agencies isconsidered when projects contain real options.financial economics; investment decisions; public economics; externalities; subsidies; project evaluation

Analysis of WIMAX/BWA Licensing in India: A real option approach

Indian Internet and broadband market has experienced very slow growth and limited penetration till now. The introduction of Broadband Wireless Access (BWA) is expected to aid in increasing the penetration of internet and broadband in India. The report sheds light on the guidelines and procedure used in 4G/BWA spectrum auction and presents comparative analysis of the competing technologies, providing the information about suitability of each technology available. Recently held 4G/ BWA spectrum auction saw enthusiastic participation by the industry and even saw some new entrants in Indian broadband market. Government benefited by Rs, 385bn that it earned as revenue from the auction of the spectrum and projected it as successful auction. However, the question remains if the auctions were efficient and whether they led to creation of value or will it prove to be burden to the telecom operators and will depress their balance sheet for years to come. The report uses both traditional valuation methods such as Discounted Cash Flow as well as Real Option approach to answer such questions. Using DCF analysis, the broadband subscribers have been forecasted to grow from present 13.77mn to 544mn by the end of 2025. The wireless subscribers are forecasted to be 70% of the total broadband subscribers after 5 years of roll out as it will be difficult to replace all wireline subscribers with wireless subscribers in India due to the high cost of wireless broadband and new technology. WiMAX is expected to increase its presence with time and reach 90mn subscribers from meager 0.35mn subscribers by 2025. Using industry wide cost of capital as 12.05%, the Net Present Value has been found Rs 221bn aggregate with an IRR of 17.1%. Using Real option approach, the value of license has been calculated as Rs 437bn which is 13.5% more than the spectrum fees paid by the operators. This mismatch, between the auction value and the correct value that should have been discovered by supply-demand dynamics, can be due to limited participants in BWA spectrum auctions and companies such as TATA and Reliance opting out of the auction process midway as well as uncertainty about acceptance of new technology with Indian subscribers.WiMAX, broadband, 3G spectrum, 4G,broadband wireless access, valuation, licensing, real option

Business Value of IT Investment: The Case of a Low Cost Airline’s Website

Using the case of a low cost airline company’s website we analyze some special research questions of information technology valuation. The distinctive characteristics of this research are the ex post valuation perspective; the parallel and comparative use of accounting and business valuation approaches; and the integrated application of discounted cash flow and real option valuation. As the examined international company is a strategic user of e-technology and wants to manage and account intangible IT-assets explicitly, these specific valuation perspectives are gaining practical significance

Hedge fund seeding via fees-for-seed swaps under idiosyncratic risk

We develop a dynamic valuation model of the hedge fund seeding business by solving the consumption and portfolio-choice problem for a risk-averse manager who launches a hedge fund through a seeding vehicle. This vehicle, i.e. fees-for-seed swap, specifies that a strategic partner (seeder) provides a critical amount of capital in exchange for participation in the funds revenue. Our results indicate that the new swap not only solves the serious problem of widespread financing constraints for new and early-stage funds (ESFs) managers, but can be highly beneficial to both the manager and the seeder if structured properly

Real Option Valuation of a Portfolio of Oil Projects

Various methodologies exist for valuing companies and their projects. We address the problem of valuing a portfolio of projects within companies that have infrequent, large and volatile cash flows. Examples of this type of company exist in oil exploration and development and we will use this example to illustrate our analysis throughout the thesis. The theoretical interest in this problem lies in modeling the sources of risk in the projects and their different interactions within each project. Initially we look at the advantages of real options analysis and compare this approach with more traditional valuation methods, highlighting strengths and weaknesses ofeach approach in the light ofthe thesis problem. We give the background to the stages in an oil exploration and development project and identify the main common sources of risk, for example commodity prices. We discuss the appropriate representation for oil prices; in short, do oil prices behave more like equities or more like interest rates? The appropriate representation is used to model oil price as a source ofrisk. A real option valuation model based on market uncertainty (in the form of oil price risk) and geological uncertainty (reserve volume uncertainty) is presented and tested for two different oil projects. Finally, a methodology to measure the inter-relationship between oil price and other sources of risk such as interest rates is proposed using copula methods.Imperial Users onl

CHANGE AND FIRM VALUATION IN U.S. FOOD RETAILING AND MANUFACTURING

The competitive environment in the agri-food sector is evolving as the food manufacturing and retailing industries become more concentrated. Evolving industry structure and new firm investment portend changes in future firm competitiveness and performance. This research describes how large food-manufacturing and retail firm performance has shifted and how firm valuation signals expected future change in performance. While there have been expectations that return on investment of large food retailers would increase relative to large packaged-food manufacturers, we find that this has not yet happened and that market valuations imply that retailers are not likely to gain on manufacturers in the future.Agribusiness,

The Benefits of Improved Environmental Accounting: An Economic Framework to Identify Priorities

Improved environmental accounting is increasingly seen by corporate managers and environmental advocates alike as a necessary complement to improved environmental decision-making within the private sector. This paper develops an economic approach to the evaluation of environmental accounting's benefits and derives the value, and determinants, of improved accounting information in several production and capital budgeting contexts. Using concepts from managerial economics, finance, and organizational theory, the analysis identifies the types of environmental accounting improvement that are most likely to yield significant financial and environmental benefits.

Using a Mark-to-Market Valuation Technique to Objectively Measure IT Portfolio Value Creation

Enterprise executives frequently face the challenge of making decisions under conditions of significant uncertainty when dealing with IT investments, IT project management and realization of intangible organizational benefits enabled by IT. A suitable methodology for accurately estimating the current financial standing of each project in a portfolio of IT projects over the full project lifecycle is useful for IT managers to understand IT value creation and manage the IT projects across the portfolio. In line with this perspective, we propose a Mark-to-Market valuation technique that enables a standardized approach across diverse IT projects that comprise the IT portfolio. Three main contributions may be drawn from this study: 1) the Mark-to-Market approach is a useful valuation technique in the context of IT projects; 2) practitioners may leverage the technique to assess project value and the performance of the IT portfolio over the lifecycle of such projects; and 3) the consistent treatment of each project allows aggregation and applications of standard portfolio management techniques to the practice of IT portfolio management

Information technology, capabilities and Asset Ownership: Evidence from Taxicab Fleets

We examine how information technology (IT) influences asset ownership through its impact on firms’ and agents’ capabilities. In particular, we propose that when IT is a substitute for agents’ industry-specific human capital, IT adoption leads to increased vertical integration. We test this prediction using micro data on vehicle ownership patterns from the Economic Census during a period when computerized dispatching systems were first adopted by taxicab firms. The empirical tests exploit exogenous variation in local market conditions, to identify the impact of dispatching technology on firm asset ownership. The results show that firms increase the proportion of taxicabs owned by 12% when they adopt new computerized dispatching systems. The findings suggest that firms increasingly vertically integrate when they acquire resources that substitute for their agents’ capabilities.

Fire artikler om oljeprisusikkerhet, optimale investeringsstrategier og kostnadsovervelting av et oljeprissjokk

This thesis investigates the influence of oil price uncertainty on optimal investment decisions and the economy-wide effects of oil price shocks. This general objective is achieved in four research papers. The thesis is organized in five chapters; chapter one is the introduction, and the papers are in chapters two to five.Denne avhandlingen undersøker hvordan usikkerhet omkring oljeprisen påvirker optimale investeringsbeslutninger, og makroøkonomiske effekter av oljeprissjokk. Dette studeres i fire forskningsartikler. Avhandlinger er inndelt i fem kapitler; kapittel 1 er innledning, mens kapitlene 2-5 består av artiklene.NORA