Decentralized Control of Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes using Belief Space Macro-actions

The focus of this paper is on solving multi-robot planning problems in continuous spaces with partial observability. Decentralized partially observable Markov decision processes (Dec-POMDPs) are general models for multi-robot coordination problems, but representing and solving Dec-POMDPs is often intractable for large problems. To allow for a high-level representation that is natural for multi-robot problems and scalable to large discrete and continuous problems, this paper extends the Dec-POMDP model to the decentralized partially observable semi-Markov decision process (Dec-POSMDP). The Dec-POSMDP formulation allows asynchronous decision-making by the robots, which is crucial in multi-robot domains. We also present an algorithm for solving this Dec-POSMDP which is much more scalable than previous methods since it can incorporate closed-loop belief space macro-actions in planning. These macro-actions are automatically constructed to produce robust solutions. The proposed method's performance is evaluated on a complex multi-robot package delivery problem under uncertainty, showing that our approach can naturally represent multi-robot problems and provide high-quality solutions for large-scale problems

RevBayes: Bayesian Phylogenetic Inference Using Graphical Models and an Interactive Model-Specification Language.

Programs for Bayesian inference of phylogeny currently implement a unique and fixed suite of models. Consequently, users of these software packages are simultaneously forced to use a number of programs for a given study, while also lacking the freedom to explore models that have not been implemented by the developers of those programs. We developed a new open-source software package, RevBayes, to address these problems. RevBayes is entirely based on probabilistic graphical models, a powerful generic framework for specifying and analyzing statistical models. Phylogenetic-graphical models can be specified interactively in RevBayes, piece by piece, using a new succinct and intuitive language called Rev. Rev is similar to the R language and the BUGS model-specification language, and should be easy to learn for most users. The strength of RevBayes is the simplicity with which one can design, specify, and implement new and complex models. Fortunately, this tremendous flexibility does not come at the cost of slower computation; as we demonstrate, RevBayes outperforms competing software for several standard analyses. Compared with other programs, RevBayes has fewer black-box elements. Users need to explicitly specify each part of the model and analysis. Although this explicitness may initially be unfamiliar, we are convinced that this transparency will improve understanding of phylogenetic models in our field. Moreover, it will motivate the search for improvements to existing methods by brazenly exposing the model choices that we make to critical scrutiny. RevBayes is freely available at http://www.RevBayes.com [Bayesian inference; Graphical models; MCMC; statistical phylogenetics.]

SimInf: An R package for Data-driven Stochastic Disease Spread Simulations

We present the R package SimInf which provides an efficient and very flexible framework to conduct data-driven epidemiological modeling in realistic large scale disease spread simulations. The framework integrates infection dynamics in subpopulations as continuous-time Markov chains using the Gillespie stochastic simulation algorithm and incorporates available data such as births, deaths and movements as scheduled events at predefined time-points. Using C code for the numerical solvers and OpenMP to divide work over multiple processors ensures high performance when simulating a sample outcome. One of our design goal was to make SimInf extendable and enable usage of the numerical solvers from other R extension packages in order to facilitate complex epidemiological research. In this paper, we provide a technical description of the framework and demonstrate its use on some basic examples. We also discuss how to specify and extend the framework with user-defined models.Comment: The manual has been updated to the latest version of SimInf (v6.0.0). 41 pages, 16 figure

What can systems and control theory do for agricultural science?

Abstract: While many professionals with a background in agricultural and bio-resource sciences work with models, only few have been exposed to systems and control theory. The purpose of this paper is to elucidate a selection of methods from systems theory that can be beneficial to quantitative agricultural science. The state space representation of a dynamical system is the corner stone in the mainstream of systems theory. It is not well known in agro-modelling that linearization followed by evaluation of eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the system matrix is useful to obtain dominant time constants and dominant directions in state space, and offers opportunities for science-based model reduction. The continuous state space description is also useful in deriving truly equivalent discrete time models, and clearly shows that parameters obtained with discrete models must be interpreted with care when transferred to another model code environment. Sensitivity analysis of dynamic models reveals that sensitivity is time and input dependent. Identifiability and sensitivity are essential notions in the design of informative experiments, and the idea of persistent excitation, leading to dynamic experiments rather than the usual static experiments can be very beneficial. A special branch of systems theory is control theory. Obviously, control plays an important part in agricultural and bio-systems engineering, but it is argued that also agronomists can profit from notions from the world of control, even if practical control options are restricted to alleviating growth limiting conditions, rather than true crop control. The most important is the idea of reducing uncertainty via feed-back. On the other hand, the systems and control community is challenged to do more to address the problems of real life, such as spatial variability, measurement delays, lacking data, environmental stochasticity, parameter variability, unavoidable model uncertainty, discrete phenomena, variable system structures, the interaction of technical ad living systems, and, indeed, the study of the functioning of life itself

Optimisation of policies for transport integration in metropolitan areas: report on work packages 30 and 40

The overall objectives of Project OPTIMA are:- (i) to identify optimal urban transport strategies for a range of urban areas within the EU; (ii) to compare the strategies which are specified as optimal in different cities, and to assess the reasons for these differences; (iii) to assess the acceptability and feasibility of implementation of these strategies both in the case study cities and more widely in the EU, and (iv) to use the results to provide more general guidance on urban transport policy within the EU. There is a wide range of objectives of transport policy in urban areas, but most can be grouped under the broad headings of economic efficiency, including economic development, on the one hand, and sustainability, including environment, safety, equity and quality of life, on the other. It is now generally accepted that the overall strategy for achieving these objectives must include an element of reduction of private car use and transfer of travel to other modes. The policy instruments for achieving these objectives can include infrastructure provision, management measures to enhance other modes and to restrict car use, and pricing measures to make public transport more attractive and to increase the marginal cost of car use. It is now widely accepted that the most appropriate strategy will involve several of these measures, combined in an integrated way which emphasises the synergy between them. The most appropriate strategy for a city will depend on its size, the current built form, topography, transport infrastructure and patterns of use; levels of car ownership, congestion and projected growth in travel; transport policy instruments already in use; and the acceptability of other measures in political and legislative terms. These will differ from city to city. Policy advice cannot therefore be generalised, but must be developed for a range of different types of city. This is the approach adopted in this study, in which nine different cities in five countries (Edinburgh, Merseyside, Vienna, Eisenstadt, Trams@, Oslo, Helsinki, Torino and Salerno) have been studied in detail, using a common study methodology. This report summarises the output of two work packages in OPTIMA: WP30: Test Combinations of Policy Instruments WP40: Identify Optim

What Triggers Multiple Job-Holding? : A Stated Preference Investigation

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