Real-Time Monitoring and Prediction of Airspace Safety

The U.S. National Airspace System (NAS) has reached an extremely high level of safety in recent years. However, it will only become more difficult to maintain the current level of safety with the forecasted increase in operations, and so the FAA has been making revolutionary changes to the NAS to both expand capacity and ensure safety. Our work complements these efforts by developing a novel model-based framework for real-time monitoring and prediction of the safety of the NAS. Our framework is divided into two parts: (offline) safety analysis and modeling part, and a real-time (online) monitoring and prediction of safety. The goal of the safety analysis task is to identify hazards to flight (distilled from several national databases) and to codify these hazards within our framework such that we can monitor and predict them. From these we define safety metrics that can be monitored and predicted using dynamic models of airspace operations, aircraft, and weather, along with a rigorous, mathematical treatment of uncertainty. We demonstrate our overall approach and highlight the advantages of this approach over the current state-of-the-art through simulated scenarios

C-Band Airport Surface Communications System Standards Development. Phase II Final Report. Volume 1: Concepts of Use, Initial System Requirements, Architecture, and AeroMACS Design Considerations

This report is provided as part of ITT s NASA Glenn Research Center Aerospace Communication Systems Technical Support (ACSTS) contract NNC05CA85C, Task 7: New ATM Requirements-Future Communications, C-Band and L-Band Communications Standard Development and was based on direction provided by FAA project-level agreements for New ATM Requirements-Future Communications. Task 7 included two subtasks. Subtask 7-1 addressed C-band (5091- to 5150-MHz) airport surface data communications standards development, systems engineering, test bed and prototype development, and tests and demonstrations to establish operational capability for the Aeronautical Mobile Airport Communications System (AeroMACS). Subtask 7-2 focused on systems engineering and development support of the L-band digital aeronautical communications system (L-DACS). Subtask 7-1 consisted of two phases. Phase I included development of AeroMACS concepts of use, requirements, architecture, and initial high-level safety risk assessment. Phase II builds on Phase I results and is presented in two volumes. Volume I (this document) is devoted to concepts of use, system requirements, and architecture, including AeroMACS design considerations. Volume II describes an AeroMACS prototype evaluation and presents final AeroMACS recommendations. This report also describes airport categorization and channelization methodologies. The purposes of the airport categorization task were (1) to facilitate initial AeroMACS architecture designs and enable budgetary projections by creating a set of airport categories based on common airport characteristics and design objectives, and (2) to offer high-level guidance to potential AeroMACS technology and policy development sponsors and service providers. A channelization plan methodology was developed because a common global methodology is needed to assure seamless interoperability among diverse AeroMACS services potentially supplied by multiple service providers

Recommendations for Managing Display Complexity with Electronic Chart Information

DTFAWA-10-A-80031 Task 7This study addressed the use of data-driven charts (DDC), which are electronic information charts that are drawn from an onboard chart database onto the forward displays. The DDC management system is intended to display only the electronic chart data that is relevant to the mission on the moving map or navigation display. It could have an important role in the depiction of RNAV RNP procedures to assist the flightcrew in the proper execution of complex NextGen routings. To develop initial recommendations and suggest areas of further research, we investigated how to integrate electronic IFR chart data into an avionics suite. The research can also be used to develop human factors guidelines for evaluating new systems that incorporate and manage electronic IFR chart procedure data in an integrated avionics platform

Human-centred design for next generation of air traffic management systems.

Designing and deploying air traffic management systems requires an understanding of cognitive ergonomics, system integration, and human-computer interactions. The aim of this research is to develop an effective Human-centred design for Air Navigation Services Providers to permit more effective air traffic controller training and regulations. Therefore, this research consists of both evaluating human-computer interactions on COOPANS Air Traffic Management system and multiple remote tower operations. The COOPANS Alliance is an international cooperation among the air navigation service providers of Austria, Croatia, Denmark, Ireland, Portugal and Sweden with Thales as the industry supplier. The findings of this project indicate that the context-specified design of semantic alerts could improve ATCO’s situational awareness and significantly reduce response time when responding to aircraft conflict resolution alerts. Civil Aviation Authorities, Air Navigation Service Providers and Air Traffic Management System Providers could all benefit from the findings of this research with a view to ensuring that Air Traffic Controllers are provided with the optimal context-specified alerting schemes to increase their situational awareness during both training and operations. The EU Single European Sky initiative was introduced to restructure European airspace and propose innovative measures for air traffic management to achieve the objectives of enhanced cost-efficiency and improved airspace design and airport capacity whilst simultaneously improving safety performance. There is potential to save approximately €2.21 million Euro per annum per installation of remote tower versus traditional control towers. However, ATCO’s visual attention and monitoring performance can be affected by how information is presented, the complexity of the information presented, and the operating environment in the remote tower centre. To achieve resource-efficient and sustainable air navigation services, there is a need to improve the design of human-computer interactions in multiple remote tower technology deployment. These must align with high technology-readiness levels, operators’ practices, industrial developments, and the certification processes of regulators. From a regulatory perspective the results of this project may contribute to European Aviation Safety Agency rulemaking activity for future Air Traffic Management Systems. Overall, the results of this research are in line with the requirements of Single European Sky and facilitate the harmonisation of European ATM systems.PhD in Transport System

Toward a theory of the evolution of business ecosystems : enterprise architectures, competitive dynamics, firm performance & industrial co-evolution

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2009.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis. Vita.Includes bibliographical references (v. 4, p. 698-745).This dissertation contributes toward the building of a theory of the evolution of business ecosystems. In the process, it addresses a question that has been posed by evolutionary theorists in the economics and sociology literatures for decades: "Why do firms in the same industry vary systematically in performance over time?" Seeking a systematic explanation of a longitudinal phenomenon inevitably requires characterizing the evolution of the industrial ecosystem, as both the organization (firm) and its environment (industry, markets and institutions) are co-evolving. This question is therefore explored via a theoretical sample in three industrial ecosystems covering manufacturing and service sectors, with competitors from the US, Europe and Japan: commercial airplanes, motor vehicles and airlines. The research is based primarily on an in depth seven-year, multi-level, multi-method, field-based case study of both firms in the large commercial airplanes industry mixed duopoly as well as the key stakeholders in their extended enterprises (i.e. customers, suppliers, investors and employees). This field work is supplemented with historical comparative analysis in all three industries, as well as nonlinear dynamic simulation models developed to capture the essential mechanisms governing the evolution of business ecosystems.(cont.) A theoretical framework is developed which endogenously traces the co-evolution of firms and their industrial environments using their highest-level system properties of form, function and fitness (as reflected in the system sciences of morphology, physiology and ecology), and which embraces the evolutionary processes of variation, selection and retention. The framework captures the path-dependent evolution of heterogeneous populations of enterprise architectures engaged in symbiotic inter-species competition and posits the evolution of dominant designs in enterprise architectures that oscillate deterministically and chaotically between modular and integral states throughout an industry's life-cycle. Architectural innovation - at the extended enterprise level - is demonstrated to contribute to the failure of established firms, with causal mechanisms developed to explain tipping points.by Theodore F. Piepenbrock.Ph.D

Achieving Long-term Energy, Transport and Climate Objectives: Multidimensional Scenario Analysis and Modeling Within a Systems Level Framework

Scenario analysis tools have emerged as a useful way to inform the policy debate by envisioning the potential evolution of energy systems over time. This dissertation describes three separate scenario analysis projects, each of which looks at the potential for a dramatic transformation of the energy system over the long term at varying geographic and sectoral scales. First, the 80in50 study analyzes the various pathways for making deep reductions in greenhouse gas emissions across all subsectors of U.S. transport system. The CA-TIMES project then takes this work to the next level by developing an energy-engineering-environmental-economic optimization model for the California energy system, in order to bring economics and dynamics into the analysis, as well as to study the interactions between transport and the various other energy producing and consuming sectors. Finally, a collaborative project with scientists at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) is described, in which a global systems engineering optimization model (MESSAGE) and a global climate model (MAGICC) are jointly utilized to evaluate synergies and trade-offs between a variety of energy objectives (climate mitigation, air pollution, energy security, and affordability

Safety and Reliability - Safe Societies in a Changing World

The contributions cover a wide range of methodologies and application areas for safety and reliability that contribute to safe societies in a changing world. These methodologies and applications include: - foundations of risk and reliability assessment and management - mathematical methods in reliability and safety - risk assessment - risk management - system reliability - uncertainty analysis - digitalization and big data - prognostics and system health management - occupational safety - accident and incident modeling - maintenance modeling and applications - simulation for safety and reliability analysis - dynamic risk and barrier management - organizational factors and safety culture - human factors and human reliability - resilience engineering - structural reliability - natural hazards - security - economic analysis in risk managemen