Periodic Sequences of Arbitrage: A Tale of Four Currencies

This paper investigates arbitrage chains involving four currencies and four foreign exchange trader-arbitrageurs. In contrast with the three-currency case, we find that arbitrage operations when four currencies are present may appear periodic in nature, and not involve smooth convergence to a "balanced" ensemble of exchange rates in which the law of one price holds. The goal of this article is to understand some interesting features of sequences of arbitrage operations, features which might well be relevant in other contexts in finance and economics.Comment: 35 pages, 48 bibliography references, submitted to Metroeconomic

Periodic Sequences of Arbitrage: A Tale of Four Currencies

This paper investigates arbitrage chains involving four currencies and four foreign exchange trader-arbitrageurs. In contrast with the three-currency case, we find that arbitrage operations when four currencies are present may appear periodic in nature, and not involve smooth convergence to a "balanced" ensemble of exchange rates in which the law of one price holds. The goal of this article is to understand some interesting features of sequences of arbitrage operations, features which might well be relevant in other contexts in finance and economics.Comment: 35 pages, 48 bibliography references, submitted to Metroeconomic

Beyond Bitcoin: Issues in Regulating Blockchain Transactions

The buzz surrounding Bitcoin has reached a fever pitch. Yet in academic legal discussions, disproportionate emphasis is placed on bitcoins (that is, virtual currency), and little mention is made of blockchain technology—the true innovation behind the Bitcoin protocol. Simply, blockchain technology solves an elusive networking problem by enabling “trustless” transactions: value exchanges over computer networks that can be verified, monitored, and enforced without central institutions (for example, banks). This has broad implications for how we transact over electronic networks. This Note integrates current research from leading computer scientists and cryptographers to elevate the legal community’s understanding of blockchain technology and, ultimately, to inform policymakers and practitioners as they consider different regulatory schemes. An examination of the economic properties of a blockchain-based currency suggests the technology’s true value lies in its potential to facilitate more efficient digital-asset transfers. For example, applications of special interest to the legal community include more efficient document and authorship verification, title transfers, and contract enforcement. Though a regulatory patchwork around virtual currencies has begun to form, its careful analysis reveals much uncertainty with respect to these alternative applications

Liquidity and Issue Costs in the Eurobond Market: the Effects of Market Integration.

We investigate and compare the issuance costs of Eurobonds before and after the completion of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) in 2002, and find that the introduction of the euro has significantly reduced the issue cost of euro-denominated bonds compared with bonds denominated in the legacy currencies. The reduction in issue cost was not due to a decrease in underwriter compensation, but rather to the elimination of underpricing (the difference between the market price after trading commences and the offering price). Underwriter fee has declined substantially after the EMU, but that decline was offset by an increase in the underwriter spread (the difference between the offering price and the guaranteed price to the issuer), leaving total underwriter compensation unchanged. The EMU is also associated with significant reductions in bond maturity and syndicate size, consistent with its expected effects on liquidity and issue costs in the Eurobond market.

The Time-Varying Systematic Risk of Carry Trade Strategies

We explain the currency carry trade performance using an asset pricing model in which factor loadings are regime-dependent rather than constant. Empirical results show that a typical carry trade strategy has much higher exposure to the stock market and is mean-reverting in regimes of high FX volatility. The findings are robust to various extensions, including more currencies, longer samples, transaction costs, international stock indices, and other proxies for volatility and liquidity. Our regime-dependent pricing model provides significantly smaller pricing errors than a traditional model. Thus, the carry trade performance is better explained by its time-varying systematic risk that magnifies in volatile markets-suggesting a partial explanation for the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity puzzle.carry trade, factor model, FX volatility, liquidity, smooth transition regression, time-varying betas

The Time-Varying Systematic Risk of Carry Trade Strategies

This paper suggests a factor model for carry trade strategies where the regression coefficients are allowed to depend on market volatility and liquidity. Empirical results on daily data from 1995 to 2008 show that a typical carry trade strategy has much higher exposure to the stock market and also more mean reversion in volatile periods - and that FX market volatility is a priced risk factor. The findings are robust to various extensions, including using more currencies and other proxies for volatility and liquidity (VIX, TED and a bid-ask spread).carry trade, factor model, smooth transition regression, time-varying betas

A new effective exchange rate index for the dollar and its implications for U.S. merchandise trade

An introduction to a new exchange-rate index to measure the foreign-exchange value of the dollar. The authors develop a model of U.S. merchandise trade, featuring the new index.Foreign exchange rates ; Dollar, American

Political Contagion in Currency Crises

Existing models of contagious currency crises are summarized and surveyed, and it is argued that more weight should be put on political factors. Towards this end, the concept of political contagion introduced, whereby contagion in speculative attacks across currencies arises solely because of political objectives of countries. A specific model of membership' contagion is presented. The desire to be part of a political-economic union, where maintaining a fixed exchange rate is a condition for membership and where the value of membership depends positively on who else is a member, is shown to give rise to potential contagion. We then present evidence suggesting that political contagion may have been important in the 1992-3 EMS crisis.

The evolution of clearing and central counterparty services for exchange-traded derivatives in the United States and Europe - a comparison

This paper is organised as follows. Section 1 explains why issues concerning central counterparty clearing houses are of direct concern to central banks and why a comparison of the European and the US situation is of interest. Section 2 provides a comparative overview of the organisation of derivatives exchanges in the United States and in Europe. Section 3 focuses on the organisation of clearing, covering a broad range of aspects. Section 4 analyses operational developments in international risk management practices and arrangements. Section 5 discusses various forms of structural consolidation in the clearing and settlement infrastructure by highlighting the different approaches taken in the United States and in Europe. Section 6 is devoted to the roles of central banks and financial market regulators regarding clearing and to the challenges they face as a result of current innovations in clearing arrangements. Finally, Section 7 summarises some of the main findings.