1,977 research outputs found

    Using a Case-Based Reasoning Approach for Trading in Sports Betting Markets

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    The sports betting market has emerged as one of the most lucrative markets in recent years. Trading in sports betting markets entails predicting odd movements in order to bet on an outcome, whilst also betting on the opposite outcome, at different odds in order to make a profit, regardless of the final result. These markets are mainly composed by humans, which take decisions according to their past experience in these markets. However, human rational reasoning is limited when taking quick decisions, being influenced by emotional factors and offering limited calibration capabilities for estimating probabilities. In this paper, we show how artificial techniques could be applied to this field and demonstrate that they can outperform even the bevahior of high-experienced humans. To achieve this goal, we propose a case-based reasoning model for trading in sports betting markets, which is integrated in an agent to provide it with the capabilities to take trading decisions based on future odd predictions. In order to test the performance of the system, we compare trading decisions taken by the agent with trading decisions taken by human traders when they compete in real sports betting markets.This work has been partially supported by CONSOLIDER-INGENIO 2010 under grant CSD2007-00022, and project TIN2011-27652-C03-01. Juan M. Alberola has received a grant from Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovacion de Espana (AP2007-00289).Alberola Oltra, JM.; García Fornes, AM. (2013). Using a Case-Based Reasoning Approach for Trading in Sports Betting Markets. Applied Intelligence. 38(3):465-477. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10489-012-0381-9S465477383Aamodt A (1990) Knowledge-intensive case-based reasoning and sustained learning. In: Topics in case-based reasoning. 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    On developing a solvency framework for bookmakers

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    The betting industry has grown significantly but there have been no developments in creating a regulatory framework akin to the EU Solvency and Capital Requirement Directives in the Financial Services. This work derives a modular method to calculate the profit and variance of a portfolio of wagers placed with a bookmaker by subdividing these into bundles according to their likelihood size. This calls for improved risk manage-ment and regulatory set-ups similar to those of the financial services industry, which should include a minimum capital requirement for bookmakers to accept a particular number of bets — “A passport for taking risks.”peer-reviewe

    Sports betting: a new asset class to bet on

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    This dissertation has the aim to present a complete overview of the current features and activities related to the sports betting industry and to explain the reasons why it can be considered a new asset class to invest on. The first chapter explains the main features of both fixed-odds and exchange betting market, the second describes the activity of sport trading, while the third presents a deep investigation concerning the market efficiency. Chapter 4 shows the arbitrage opportunities implementable in this market, that come from the efficiency study of the previous chapter. Before the conclusion, a personal study about the value betting arbitrage opportunity is presented, confirming that abnormal returns are achievable

    Testing Efficiency in NHL Betting Markets

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    The efficiency of markets is a prominent topic in the field of finance. Market efficiency has been thoroughly examined across many subsectors of finance; however thus far, existing research has sparsely covered the increasingly prominent sports betting market. This market is currently valued at roughly $10B per year (Grandview). In this article, we evaluate the efficiency of sports betting markets, using NHL betting lines and results from 2015-2020 to create a multivariate probit model which tests the market’s efficiency. Using a multivariate probit model to identify NHL money line bets with a relatively high probability of success compared to their implied probability, we generate significant profit and beat betting markets, generating an 8.5% ROI when tested against the 20-21 NHL season

    The Rise of Online Gaming: The Dominant Factors of Poker & The Fall of The UIGEA and its Predecessors

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    On the Clock, Best Bet to Draft Cyberdefensive Linemen: Federal Regulation of Sports Betting from a Cybersecurity Perspective

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    On May 14, 2018, Justice Alito delivered the majority opinion for the United States Supreme Court in Murphy v. National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA). The Professional and Amateur Protection Act (PASPA), a twenty-six-year-old federal statute, was deemed unconstitutional; thus, this decision allows state legislatures to legalize sports betting within their borders. With many states independently legalizing sports gambling, the regulatory landscape throughout the country is becoming a patchwork of state statutes. Additionally, top tier sporting organizations heavily depend on data analytics to formulate game plan strategy, train efficiently, rehab player injuries, gauge team and player performance, etc. The popularity of sports gambling continues to grow in the United States, and the proliferation of data usage will only expand as teams and players seek a competitive advantage. However, sports teams and athletes are not the only entities seeking an edge, as hackers will attempt to steal private and proprietary data for a significant edge when placing sports bets. It is imperative that leagues, teams, sports betting operators, and legislators must not overlook the cybersecurity component when regulating the industry. This Note argues that federal regulatory oversight is the most favorable approach from a cybersecurity perspective, and states can build on this framework as they see fit. Federal agencies, such as the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), Securities Exchange Commission (SEC), and federal law enforcement agencies, are well-versed in persistent cybersecurity issues and compliance regulations. A central, federal regulatory model is advantageous to the growth and integrity of the blossoming sports gambling industry and the established sports industry

    Prediction Markets versus Alternative Methods. Empirical Tests of Accuracy and Acceptability

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