Modelling and simulating mobile commerce diffusion in China using system dynamics

Current deployments of mobile commerce focus mostly on digital content. However, mobile commerce will grow rapidly with the increased use of portable devices such as cellular phones and personal digital assistants (PDA), increased network bandwidth, and the availability of a wider range of mobile commerce services and transactions. As the revenue generated from mobile commerce is expected to skyrocket in the coming years, strategists are turning their attention to untapped emerging markets in the developing countries. Understanding how mobile commerce will develop in countries like China, where huge market potential exists, is of paramount importance in order to develop effective strategies that will positively affect its course. Modelling the diffusion of mobile commerce in a country is a difficult task due to the non-linear, complex and uncertain nature of its operating environment. A System Dynamics approach is more appropriate to model such a complex system. The main objective of this study is to illustrate the process of developing System Dynamics models for simulating mobile commerce diffusion in China by using a subset of the factors involved. In order to achieve this objective, the Chinese mobile commerce was modelled as the interaction of three subsystems, namely: population evolution in China; mobile commerce diffusion; and the influence from the provision of mobile commerce terminals (MCT) on mobile commerce diffusion. Each subsystem was modelled by identifying the factors influencing its development as well as the interactions between the factors. The subsystems were calibrated using historical and forecasted data whenever they were available. The validation of the subsystems was also performed through extensive sensitivity analysis. The complete model was used for experimenting with some typical Chinese mobile commerce scenarios for the purpose of analysing mobile commerce trends and designing strategies to exert positive influences on those trends. The simulation of the submodels provided useful insights into their respective areas for controlling their development. Simulation of the population development submodel showed that, in addition to family planning policies, urbanisation rates and life quality were important factors that significantly influenced population dynamics in China. Simulation of the mobile commerce diffusion submodel showed that the time when mobile commerce is implemented will significantly influence its market expansion speed i.e. the later mobile commerce is implemented, the quicker the market will expand. The existence of floating populations in China will be a big advantage in starting up the rural market. However, if mobile commerce is implemented too late, the penetration in rural areas will be negligible. Simulation of the MCT provision submodel showed the importance of opening the Chinese market to foreign suppliers and the coordination of strategies regarding the design and supply of MCTs with strategies for the growth of mobile commerce in China. This study is a first attempt to simulate the diffusion of mobile commerce in China using System Dynamics. The results obtained showed that the models developed were useful for understanding and controlling the future diffusion of mobile commerce in China

Semantic discovery and reuse of business process patterns

Patterns currently play an important role in modern information systems (IS) development and their use has mainly been restricted to the design and implementation phases of the development lifecycle. Given the increasing significance of business modelling in IS development, patterns have the potential of providing a viable solution for promoting reusability of recurrent generalized models in the very early stages of development. As a statement of research-in-progress this paper focuses on business process patterns and proposes an initial methodological framework for the discovery and reuse of business process patterns within the IS development lifecycle. The framework borrows ideas from the domain engineering literature and proposes the use of semantics to drive both the discovery of patterns as well as their reuse

Space transportation system and associated payloads: Glossary, acronyms, and abbreviations

A collection of some of the acronyms and abbreviations now in everyday use in the shuttle world is presented. It is a combination of lists that were prepared at Marshall Space Flight Center and Kennedy and Johnson Space Centers, places where intensive shuttle activities are being carried out. This list is intended as a guide or reference and should not be considered to have the status and sanction of a dictionary

Global innovation in emerging economies

Co-published with RoutledgeThis book addresses the context for location of global research and development (R&D) in emerging economies by multinational corporations (MNCs), and the driving forces behind this trend; performance of global R&D by companies from emerging economies; and national and corporate implications of these new trends for innovation systems. The trends have managerial implications for companies and policy implications for the emerging economies where such R&D is performed, as well as for the industrialized home countries of the companies

NASA Tech Briefs, September 1990

Topics covered include: New Product Ideas; NASA TU Services; Electronic Components and Circuits; Electronic Systems; Physical Sciences; Materials; Computer Programs; Mechanics; Machinery; Fabrication Technology; Mathematics and Information Sciences; Life Sciences

Using system dynamics to simulate the strategic planning of the mobile commerce terminal (MCT) industry and mobile commerce diffusion

Mobile commerce refers to business activities over mobile terminals. A system dynamics (SD) approach is used to analyze how the strategic planning of the mobile commerce terminal (MCT) industry will influence the process of mobile commerce diffusion in a market. We study mobile commerce market development in a country as a dynamic social economic system. The simulation model is based upon the mobile commerce diffusion simulation model. We create a model for the Chinese market for the purpose of simulating MCT strategic planning and mobile commerce diffusion. The SD model is useful for providing an understanding of the process of mobile commerce diffusion and the formulation of strategies for the MCT industry